502
FXUS63 KMQT 141121
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIALLY HISTORIC SNOW STORM IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AND COULD RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.
- SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND SPEEDS OF
30-60 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND ALONG THE LAKESHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
- THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND
ITS LIKELY THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE UPGRADED TO BLIZZARD
WARNINGS ONCE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
INCREASES.
- LARGE WAVES ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF BEACH EROSION
AND LAKESHORE FLOODING FOR MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES
SUNDAY AND ALL LAKE SUPERIOR LAKESHORES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE MAIN ITEM IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL HISTORIC
WINTER STORM THAT'S ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF
VERY STRONG WINDS AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATING, BLOWING, AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND THE RISK OF
POWER OUTAGES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PLEASE TAKE ADVANTAGE OF TODAY'S
PLEASANT WEATHER TO FINISH ANY PRE-STORM PREPARATIONS AND AVOID
TRAVELING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL FROM YESTERDAY'S STORM HAS EXITED TO THE EAST,
LEAVING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN ITS WAKE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALSO LIGHTEN, WITH
MOST OBSERVATION SITES IN THE REGION NEAR 10 MPH WINDS. EXCEPTIONS
ARE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR, WHERE 20-25 MPH
WINDS ARE STILL BEING OBSERVED. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN IN THE 20S
AND TEENS. UPSTREAM SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY,
RESULTING IN THE CONTINUED DIMINISHING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND A
MIX OF PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST TODAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE MAIN EVENT
BEGINS TAKING SHAPE.
THIS EVENING, A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES,
HELPING TO ORGANIZE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. SUNDAY, THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT TO NEAR CHICAGO, THEN PROCEED SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED NEAR WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY,
THEREBY HELPING THE SURFACE LOW DEEPEN TO NEAR 980MB OVER LAKE HURON
OR NEAR THE STRAITS. AHEAD OF THE LOW, A VERY STRONG 40-65KT 925-
850MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP ADVECT ROBUST GULF MOISTURE NORTH INTO
THE SYSTEM WHILE BEHIND IT, A SLOWLY WEAKENING 1036MB HIGH WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS, IN ADDITION TO INCREASING SYNOPTIC
FORCING, WILL RESULT WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ONSET OF SNOW LOOKS TO BEGIN ALONG THE STATELINE COUNTIES BETWEEN 2-
5Z SUNDAY, THEN PROGRESSIVELY LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
LIFTS INTO QUEBEC WHILE EXTENDING BENT BACK SURFACE TROUGHING INTO
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS NEAR -10C WILL COOL AS
ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION BUILDS OVERHEAD, BRINGING 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO NEAR -22C BY TUESDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF AMPLE SYNOPTIC,
LAKE ENHANCED, AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING, AND MODEL SOUNDING DGZ DEPTHS
NEAR OR GREATER THAN 10K FEET FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME, GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. THE
LATEST REFS FAVORS THE HEAVIEST SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, WHEN SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE MOST
FAVORED (UP TO 70% CHANCE) FOR ALL AREAS EAST OF THE SPINE, WHICH IS
MORE LIKELY TO SEE 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES (UP TO 60% CHANCE). 1 INCH
PER HOUR RATES ARE FAVORED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (50-90%
CHANCE), MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST WITH LIGHTER SNOWFALL RATES
ELSEWHERE. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING SUNDAY,
PEAKING NEAR 40 MPH FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND 50+ IN THE TERRAIN
OF THE KEWEENAW AND BY THE LAKESHORES BY EVENING. THESE WINDS
FURTHER INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO NORTH, WHEN 60+ MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE KEWEENAW AND BY LAKE
SUPERIOR, WITH 40-50MPH BEING POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. LATEST NBM MEAN
GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE EAST HALF ARE IN THE 40S, WITH NEAR 60 BY THE
LAKE SUPERIOR LAKESHORE AND KEWEENAW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 0Z
EC DETERMINISTIC SUGGESTS 60-70 MPH WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM
BIG BAY TO WHITEFISH POINT MONDAY AND NEAR 60 MPH WINDS FOR INTERIOR
EASTERN AREAS. SHOULD THESE WINDS OCCUR, TREE DAMAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN MONDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO TUESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TRADITIONAL NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS, BUT A
SURFACE HIGH MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL HELP WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY EVENING.
BEHIND THE STORM, POLAR AIR WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ONLY GETTING INTO
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE INTERIOR TO LOWER TEENS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO FALL TO NEAR -10F DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS. A WEAK CLIPPER MAY ALSO
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW WEDNESDAY BEFORE WE WARM BACK UP CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO A QUIET DAY AS VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BEGINNING TONIGHT, BRINGING
SNOW TO THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AROUND 03Z AT IWD, AROUND 05Z AT
SAW, AND AROUND 09Z AT CMX. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM THE
ONSET OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS
MODEL DISAGREEMENT (AND THUS, LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE) IN EXACTLY
HOW FAST AND HOW HARD CONDITIONS FALL, SO PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN
ADDED. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY
INCREASING GUSTS OUT OF THE EAST, WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KT AT ALL
SITES BY 12Z SUNDAY.
AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD, THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL LEAD TO SUNDAY HAVING LONG-DURATION +SN AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH (UP TO 40+ KT BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AT CMX AND SAW, 30+ KT AT IWD). THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND LONG-LIVED PERIODS OF AIRPORT MINIMUM
VISIBILITY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 1-2 FT FOR CMX AND IWD AND 1-
3 FT FOR SAW BY THE TIME SNOW ENDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A VERY STRONG TO HISTORIC STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS
SUNDAY, LIKELY REACHING GALES BY MORNING AND THEN STORMS SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE PACKAGES ALSO SUGGEST HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. ADDITIONALLY, THESE
STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR OVERHEAD WILL CREATE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
WINDS DIMINISH SLOWLY MONDAY NIGHT, FALLING BELOW GALES LAKEWIDE
TUESDAY MORNING.
A CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE BEFORE FALLING
BELOW 20KTS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>005-013-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
MIZ006-007-014-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
MIZ009>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT /1 AM
CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ243>250-
264>266.
STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ243>250-264>266.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ251-267.
STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...JTP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...JTP
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