104
FXUS63 KMQT 150659
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
259 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE TREACHEROUS AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND COULD RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE
AND POWER OUTAGES!
- SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED (LOCALLY UP TO 4 FEET NORTH-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P.) WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 35-60 MPH. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY IN THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA AND ALONG THE LAKESHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
- WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY BECOME
NORTHERLY STORM FORCE GUSTS OF 50-60 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 64 KNOTS IN THE EAST ON
MONDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER ICE-FREE AREAS.
- LARGE WAVES ON THE GREAT LAKES INCREASE THE RISK OF BREAKING UP
PREVIOUSLY-STABLE ICE AS WELL AS THE RISK FOR BEACH EROSION AND
LAKESHORE FLOODING FOR ALL LAKE SUPERIOR LAKESHORES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIALLY HISTORIC,
RECORD-BREAKING BLIZZARD THAT WILL IMPACT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF VERY STRONG
WINDS AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATING, BLOWING, AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN TREACHEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AND THE RISK OF POWER OUTAGES TODAY AND MONDAY. TRAVEL
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO EMERGENCIES ONLY THROUGH MONDAY, AND EVEN
EMERGENCY VEHICLES WILL STRUGGLE TO NAVIGATE THE ROADS AT TIMES!
CURRENT CONDITIONS AT 06Z SHOW A CALM BEFORE THE STORM FOR MOST OF
THE UP. METAR REPORTS SHOW THAT THE STORM IS ARRIVING, AS STATIONS
NEAR THE STATE LINE (LNL, IMT, MNM, AND EGV) SHOW DETERIORATING
VISIBILITY WITH THE ONSET OF -SN, RANGING FROM 0.75 MILE AT IMT TO
2.5 MILES AT LNL. KMQT RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES,
INDICATING THAT THE SURFACE DRY LAYER (DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS RANGING
FROM A FEW DEGREES TO AS MUCH AS 10+ DEGREES AT SOME RAWS SITES) IS
CURRENTLY WINNING OUT, BUT WILL NOT FOREVER. ALOFT, BROAD TROUGHING
AT THE JET AND 500MB LEVEL STILL REMAINS JUST TO THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES, BUT TROUGHING IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT APPROACHING THE
MIDWEST AT 700MB AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS AT 989MB AND HOLDING
OVER KANSAS.
BY THIS EVENING, THE 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS,
FORCING THE SURFACE LOW TO THE CHICAGO AREA, MAINTAINING SIMILAR
PRESSURE OR DEEPENING SLIGHTLY. THE LOW THEN TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT, THOUGH THIS IS WHEN ENSEMBLE SPREAD BEGINS AS THE EURO
SUITE SHOWS LOW CENTERS FROM DRUMMOND ISLAND ALL THE WAY TO THE
MILWAUKEE NEARSHORES, A DISAPPOINTING AMOUNT OF SPREAD FOR HOUR 36
OF THE RUN. THE SHORTWAVE THEN TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT NEAR WESTERN
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY MONDAY AND PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AND LOWER MI. THIS
ALONGSIDE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS STRENGTHEN THE LOW TO NEAR 980 MB
MONDAY MORNING. WHILE FRUSTRATION REMAINS IN THE SPREAD IN THE LOW
TRACK, THE BIG PICTURE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES ARE MINIMAL AND THE MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME. A DUAL-
MOISTURE STREAM ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM, WITH NAEFS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PLOTS NOTING THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF
WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ. STRONG LIFT IS PRESENT IN THE COMBINATION
OF JET ENTRANCE REGIONS, ISENTROPIC ASCENT, ROBUST WAA, AND 700 MB F-
GEN INTO THIS MORNING.
THE HREF SHOWS THE RESULT OF THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LIFT AND
MOISTURE: 70+% CHANCES OF SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR AND 20-50%
CHANCES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR OVER THE UP THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO QUEBEC. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C
COOL FURTHER AS ADDITIONAL CAA BUILDS OVERHEAD, BRINGING 850 MB
TEMPS DOWN TO THE -20S C BY MONDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF AMPLE SYNOPTIC,
LAKE ENHANCED, AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING, AND MODEL SOUNDING DGZ DEPTHS
NEAR OR GREATER THAN 10 KFT FOR LONG PERIODS OF TIME, GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 FT OF SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 FT IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR TODAY, PARTICULARLY THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.P. SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCH PER
HOUR ARE FAVORED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, HEAVIEST OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL. DESPITE THE RATES BEING RELATIVELY LOWER (STILL ELEVATED IN
AN ABSOLUTE SENSE) DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EVENT, BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BEGIN INCREASING TODAY, PEAKING NEAR 40 MPH FOR
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS AND 50+ MPH IN THE TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW AND
BY THE LAKESHORES BY EVENING. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE THESE
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH, WHEN 60+ MPH
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE KEWEENAW AND BY LAKE SUPERIOR WITH 40-50
MPH BEING POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THE 12Z EPS SUGGESTS 20-50% CHANCES
FOR WINDS EXCEEDING 74 MPH (HURRICANE-FORCE!) ALONG THE LAKESHORE
FROM BIG BAY TO WHITEFISH POINT MONDAY AND 10-30% CHANCES FOR
INTERIOR EASTERN AREAS. SHOULD THESE WINDS OCCUR, TREE DAMAGE AND
POWER OUTAGES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. WITH THESE WINDS IN ADDITION TO
THE WELL-DOCUMENTED HEAVY SNOWFALL, VISIBILITY WILL BE DRIVEN TO 1/4
MILE TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN MONDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL
REMAIN ELEVATED TO NEAR 40 MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BUILD
WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 20-30 FT, HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
THE LAKE. LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNINGS AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A RESULT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SNOW DRIFTS OF SEVERAL FEET TALL, ADDING TO DIFFICULT
TRAVEL AND SNOW LOAD ON STRUCTURES.
FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES WERE MADE
WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE BIGGEST CHANGES ARE IN THE WEST,
WHERE CAM GUIDANCE WITH BETTER PARAMETERIZATION OF OROGRAPHIC AND
MESOSCALE CONTRIBUTIONS TO SNOWFALL HAVE LEAD TO INCREASED SNOW
TOTALS IN THE TERRAIN OF THE WEST, MOST NOTABLY AT IRONWOOD, WITH
THE STORM TOTAL SNOW NOW EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE 2 FOOT MARK, GIVE
OR TAKE A HALF FOOT AS THE WEST WILL BE THE MOST SENSITIVE TO
IMPACTS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES
MENTIONED EARLIER. CAMS HAVE ALSO DRIVEN THE UPPER PERCENTILES OF
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS INTO MIND-BOGGLING RANGES, WHICH ARE ALMOST
CERTAIN TO NOT BE REALIZED AS THE STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEPRESS
SNOW RATIOS BY FRACTURING DENDRITES INTO SHAPES THAT ARE MORE
COMPACT, THUS LEADING TO A DENSER SNOWFALL FOR THE SAME QPF.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST
WINDS SNOWBELTS, DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND WAA ALOFT WEAKENS DELTA-TS.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE, AN INCH
OR LESS.
WITH AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE STORM, POLAR AIR WILL KEEP BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ONLY GETTING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE INTERIOR TO LOWER
TEENS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO FALL TO NEAR -10F
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
ENJOYERS OF SPRING REJOICE: THERE IS HOPE LATE IN THE WEEK! THE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE BACK HALF FAVORS A TRACK OF EITHER ONE OR
TWO CLIPPER LOWS (DEPENDING ON YOUR FAVORITE ENSEMBLE MEMBER)
TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THESE LOWS SHOULD BE WEAKER AND
NOT BRING AS EXTREME OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS, THOUGH THEY WILL
FOSTER WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION
IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE RAIN OR SNOW (OR A CLEAN MIX OF BOTH),
THOUGH SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF THOSE SOLUTIONS IS HIGH AT THIS
POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SNOW IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE U.P. EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A
MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN SOON AT KIWD AND IS ON TRACK TO SPREAD
INTO KSAW AND KCMX AROUND 08Z AND 10Z RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY FALLING BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS SNOWFALL RATES REACH 1-
2" PER HOUR AND WINDS GUST TO 25-30 KNOTS. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF VISIBLITY BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT IWD WITH A PROB30
TO ADDRESS THAT POTENTIAL. ALL TOLD, SNOWFALL WILL TOTAL 1 TO 3 FEET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, HIGHEST AT SAW. NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL KEEP INCREASING AFTER 00Z MON, GUSTING TO 40-50 KNOTS AT
KCMX/KSAW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH 30-35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
KIWD, RESULTING IN EXTREME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A STRONG TO HISTORIC STORM MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS TODAY, REACHING GALES THIS MORNING AND THEN STORM-
FORCE TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD A LOW (~30%) CHANCE FOR
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS DRIVING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 20+
FEET (SOME TO NEAR 30 FEET BETWEEN STANNARD ROCK AND THE SHORES OF
MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES), COLD AIR DESCENDING OVERHEAD WILL
CREATE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. AS THE LOW EXITS TOWARDS QUEBEC, WINDS
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, FALLING BELOW STORMS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
BELOW GALES LAKEWIDE TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS ONE OR TWO
WEAKER CLIPPERS MOVING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND LATE FRIDAY. THE PATTERN ALSO FAVORS WARM,
SOUTHERLY FLOW, REDUCING THE RISK OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. WHILE
GALES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, CHANCES OF GALES FOR ANY
GIVEN PERIOD IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ARE ONLY 10-20%.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-003>005.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-
009>012-084.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR MIZ002.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR MIZ005.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-
085.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR MIZ006.
LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR MIZ007.
LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT
MONDAY FOR MIZ009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
/7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS
MORNING TO 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ240>248-
263>265.
STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 PM
EDT /1 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ243>251-264>267.
STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LSZ243>251-264>267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LMZ248-250.
STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...GS/77/JTP
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...GS/77/JTP
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