209
FXUS63 KMQT 101121
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS CLOSE OUT THE WEEK, RESULTING
IN A GRADUAL SNOWMELT AND RIVER RISES.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RESUMES LATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG WHILE TEMPERATURES
WARM EVEN FURTHER. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BRING INCREASED SNOWMELT.
THIS, COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCELERATE RIVER RISES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
MORNING RAP ANALYSIS HAS BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, ANCHORED BY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. ASSOCIATED WAA RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
GRAZE MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT, AND WITH SOME WEAK REFLECTIVITY
STILL EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP,
WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE, SATELLITE REVEALS
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER IN THE WAKE OF THE THICKER MIDLEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER MIDWEST SYSTEM.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 40S, AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT FAIRLY NICELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UP
THIS AFTERNOON; POCKETS OF RH IN THE UPPER 30% RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK
INTO THE 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY AS TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST,
WITH ONE LAST DRY DAY EXPECTED BEFORE OUR PERIOD OF WET WEATHER
KICKS OFF. TEMPERATURES TURN EVEN WARMER, PEAKING IN THE 50S FOR
MOST. MEANWHILE, STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS
SOLIDIFIES A GULF CONNECTION WHICH WILL BE PERTINENT TO THE FORECAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH ITS WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR A
DEEPER DIVE ON TEMPS, DEW POINT TEMPS, AND THE FLOODING RISKS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF RESULTING SNOWMELT AND PRECIP.
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WAA KICK OFF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH, WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR IS ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING INSTABILITY (SEVERAL HUNDRED TO 1000J/KG OF MUCAPE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT). PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY
NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GOING FORECAST REFLECTS WIDESPREAD 0.75-
1.0IN AMOUNTS, HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UP. ENSEMBLES
ALSO POINT TO AROUND A 40-50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH, PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN UP. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY TRAILING SYSTEMS INTO MID
NEXT WEEK WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/TRACK. THAT SAID,
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING IS INCREASING DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPS AND FREQUENT HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS PERIOD, WITH ALL SITES REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS AT 11Z.
CMX'S LOW SCT LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING, THOUGH IF IT DID, IT WOULD CAUSE IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS. SAW
IS UP TO 50% LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR CEILINGS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, SO A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR THOSE CEILINGS, BUT BY THIS EVENING, ALL SITES SHOULD
SEE VFR (AND EVEN SKC) CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 10-
15 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE (BUT
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SW).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY NW WINDS TODAY BACKING TO THE SW
TONIGHT, THEN OVER TO THE SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO THE EAST. AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH ALSO BRINGS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 KTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE LAKE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A 30-50% CHANCE FOR GALES TO 35KTS IS PRESENT OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS BRIEFLY FALL BACK BELOW 20KTS ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING,
BUT INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OUT OF THE NE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES; CHANCES FOR
GALES ARE MUCH LOWER, REMAINING 15% OR LESS WITH THIS EVENT. THE
ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK AS A THIRD
SYSTEM KEEPS WINDS ELEVATED TO THE 20-30KT RANGE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
A SLOW SNOW MELT GIVES WAY TO ACCELERATED MELTING THIS WEEKEND AS
THE SNOWPACK BECOMES RIPE FOR MELTING (SNOWPACK TEMPERATURE REACHING
FREEZING) AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
FAVORABLE MELTING CONDITIONS.
EXPECT LIMITED MELTING THROUGH FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
40S, BUT LOW DEW POINTS PRIMARILY BELOW FREEZING AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT MITIGATE MELTING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEES A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT GULF CONNECTION INTO THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON SATURDAY INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES JUST
ECLIPSING FREEZING. TEMPERATURES BROADLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEGINNING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE THE FOCUS OF HIGHEST TEMPERATURES, WITH
FORECASTS RANGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (NORMAL HIGHS: 40S
TO LOW 50S, NORMAL LOWS: 20S TO 32) AS PARTS OF THE UP GET PLACED
UNDERNEATH THE WARM SECTOR. THE NBM CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S, WARMEST IN THE INTERIOR WEST ON SUNDAY AND IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ON MONDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70 NEAR
THE WI/MI STATE LINE ON SUNDAY AND A 40 TO 60% CHANCE IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MID 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT (15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT!). DURING THIS PERIOD DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SOAR
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY, REMAINING ELEVATED INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL SUPPORT HEAT TRANSFER NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING SNOW MELT EFFICIENCY.
WITH THIS WARMTH AND MOISTURE COMES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH THE NBM SHOWING 25-55%
CHANCES FOR ABOVE 1 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ENDING 8 PM EDT SUNDAY.
STRONGER STORMS MAY BRING AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS
REFLECTED IN THE NBM 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES. A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGS
MEAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS REACHING UP TO 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
ALL THESE FACTORS LEAD TO ACCELERATED RATE OF SNOWMELT AND
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PONDING OF WATER ON LOW-LYING/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AS WELL AS MINOR RIVER FLOODING. MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ON THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON
RIVER NEAR ALSTON (~25% CHANCE). SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. THOSE LIVING NEAR AND
PLANNING TO RECREATE AROUND THE RIVERS AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE
U.P. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST AND RIVER
LEVELS AS THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DETERMINE FLOODING
POTENTIAL.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77/LC
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...77/LC
HYDROLOGY...77
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