600
FXUS63 KMQT 110515
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
115 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RESUMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL BRING INCREASED SNOWMELT. THIS, COMBINED WITH PERIODS
OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, WILL ACCELERATE RIVER
RISES AND LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE
REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. HAS HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 30S IN
MANY LOCATIONS SO FAR TODAY, BUT EXPECT THE CLEARING TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH A SUNNIER END TO THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED BENIGN CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY UNDER MOSTLY/CLEAR SUNNY SKIES. THE CLEARING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION GIVEN
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A
PLEASANT SPRING DAY AS 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 0 DEGREES C
TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
PERHAPS EVEN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE WI BORDER. THIS WILL KICK OFF A
STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AND CONTRIBUTE TO ACCELERATED SNOWMELT AND UPCOMING HYDRO
CONCERNS.
SPEAKING OF THOSE HYDRO CONCERNS, A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
COMMENCES SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BRINGS A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE U.P. THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW
TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES
INTO SUNDAY AS PWAT VALUES CLIMB ABOVE ONE INCH, SURPASSING THE 95TH
PERCENTILE OF NEARBY SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY-MID APRIL.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN A BIT OF RUN TO RUN FLUCTUATION IN TERMS OF QPF
AMOUNTS, BUT THE GOING NBM-BASED FORECAST STILL GENERALLY DEPICTS
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.00-1.25" ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P.
AND CLOSER TO 0.75" IN THE WEST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHICH IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH OR PERHAPS A SLIGHT UPWARD
TICK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. THIS COUPLED WITH ACCELERATED
SNOWMELT FROM RISING TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO
PUT A STRAIN ON AREA RIVERS, WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS FORECAST TO
REACH OR COME CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. AN
AREAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL RIVER
FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO ONGOING HYDRO CONCERNS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, PAVING THE WAY FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE
WEEK. MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF
RICH GULF MOISTURE AND HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY ABOVE
FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE U.P.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR A ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES, BUT LOOK FOR
DETERIORATION TO MVFR IN THE SUN 00-06Z TIME FRAME AS RAIN SHOWERS
OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
MENTION. ADDITIONAL THREAT INCLUDES LLWS AT IWD AROUND/AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY. LLWS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO CMX AND SAW AS WELL WITH FUTURE
TAF ISSUANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS BELOW 20 KT
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY SW WINDS TODAY DIMINISHING BELOW
15 KT TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY. SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH ALSO BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR GALES TO 35 KT IS PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF AN ISSUING ANY
HEADLINES FOR NOW GIVEN THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.
WINDS BRIEFLY FALL BACK BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING,
BUT INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OUT OF THE NE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES
FOR GALES ARE MUCH LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM, REMAINING 15% OR LESS AT
THIS TIME. THE ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK AS A THIRD SYSTEM KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A SLOW SNOW MELT GIVES WAY TO ACCELERATED MELTING THIS WEEKEND AS
THE SNOWPACK BECOMES RIPE FOR MELTING (SNOWPACK TEMPERATURE REACHING
FREEZING) AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
FAVORABLE MELTING CONDITIONS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEES A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT GULF CONNECTION INTO THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON SATURDAY INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES JUST
ECLIPSING FREEZING. TEMPERATURES BROADLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEGINNING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE THE FOCUS OF HIGHEST TEMPERATURES, WITH
FORECASTS RANGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (NORMAL HIGHS: 40S
TO LOW 50S, NORMAL LOWS: 20S TO 32) AS PARTS OF THE UP GET PLACED
UNDERNEATH THE WARM SECTOR. THE NBM CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S, WARMEST IN THE INTERIOR WEST ON SUNDAY AND IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ON MONDAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70 NEAR
THE WI/MI STATE LINE ON SUNDAY AND A 40 TO 60% CHANCE IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MID 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT (15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT!). DURING THIS PERIOD DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SOAR
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY, REMAINING ELEVATED INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL SUPPORT HEAT TRANSFER NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING SNOW MELT EFFICIENCY.
WITH THIS WARMTH AND MOISTURE COMES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH THE NBM SHOWING 40-50%
CHANCES FOR ABOVE 1 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ENDING 8 PM EDT SUNDAY.
STRONGER STORMS MAY BRING AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS
REFLECTED IN THE NBM 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES. A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGS
MEAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS REACHING UP TO 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
ALL THESE FACTORS LEAD TO ACCELERATED RATE OF SNOWMELT AND
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PONDING OF WATER ON LOW-LYING/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AS WELL AS MINOR RIVER FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE U.P. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE CONCERNS. MODERATE RIVER FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
ON THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
ALSTON (NOW UP TO A 45-50% CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS). SEE THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. THOSE
LIVING NEAR AND PLANNING TO RECREATE AROUND THE RIVERS AND LOW-LYING
AREAS OF THE U.P. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST
AND RIVER LEVELS AS THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DETERMINE
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC
HYDROLOGY...
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