312
FXUS63 KMQT 111111
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
711 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BRING INCREASED SNOWMELT. THIS, COMBINED
WITH PERIODS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
ACCELERATE RIVER RISES AND LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF
UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
EARLY MORNING GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGING ALOFT
SKIRTING THROUGH ONTARIO IS ALLOWING CLOUD COVER TO PRESIDE ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EAST. TEMPS ARE COMING
IN LARGELY AROUND FREEZING, WITH SOME COOLER MID TO LOW 20S SEEN
ACROSS THE EAST HALF. TODAY, EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, LEADING TO BENIGN AND QUIET WEATHER WITH
PLENTY OF MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING INTO A DRY
LAYER ALOFT WHERE AFTERNOON SURFACE RHS MAY DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S
AGAIN, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HEALTHY
SNOWPACK STILL COVERING A MAJORITY UPPER MICHIGAN, THERE ARE NO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MAKE A RUN TOWARD
60F FOR THE SW UP. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TIER STAY A BIT COOLER
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN KICKS OFF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WESTERN
TROUGHING AND SE US RIDGING OPEN UP THE METAPHORICAL FLOOD GATES FOR
STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (NON-
SEVERE) DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT, LIFTING INTO THE
UP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION (IVT AND PWATS IN THE 99TH TO MAX
PERCENTILE OF NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY) PROVIDES ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WITHIN CONVECTION. LATEST NBM
AND LREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ONLY A 30-60% CHANCE FOR 24HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS >1" (HIGHEST SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST) THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING,
WHILE THE 00Z HREF GENERALLY DEPICTS POCKETS OF 1-1.5", WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC GIVEN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND HIGH END MOISTURE
PROFILES. RAINFALL COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING
WILL LEAD TO ACCELERATED SNOWMELT. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WARM AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE
WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, BREEZY S TO SW WINDS UPWARDS OF
20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
WHERE DOWNSLOPING LOCALLY ENHANCES WINDS RUNNING DOWN THE TERRAIN.
850MB TEMPS SOARING BETWEEN 10-12C WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE TEMPS
REACHING MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST AND S-CENTRAL. MID TO UPPER 50S
WILL BE SEEN IN THE KEWEENAW AND EAST HALF.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO ONGOING HYDRO CONCERNS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, PAVING THE WAY FOR ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO BRING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE
WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE ON MONDAY, A SECOND ROUND IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY LATE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SUITE
SUGGESTS A CONGLOMERATE 40-70% CHANCE FOR AN ADDITIONAL 0.5" BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HIGHER (AND LOWER) AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN A FEED OF RICH GULF MOISTURE AND HELP TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE UP.
SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR A ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES, BUT LOOK FOR
DETERIORATION TO MVFR IN THE SUN 00-06Z TIME FRAME AS RAIN SHOWERS
OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES. CEILINGS DROP FURTHER TO IFR AT CMX AND
SAW AFTER 06Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.
ADDITIONAL THREAT INCLUDES LLWS AT IWD STARTING AROUND 06Z, THEN AT
CMX AND SAW BY 09Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH ALSO
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT LOW
(<30%) PROBABILITY FOR GALES TO 35 KTS SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF THE KEWEENAW, HOWEVER, ITS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE ECMWF ENS SUGGESTS A 50-80% CHANCE FOR GALES
OF 35 KTS FOR THE TYPICAL DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UP NEARSHORE LOCATIONS BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND GRAND
MARIAS. THESE LOCALIZED ACCELERATED WINDS MAY SPILL 35 KT GUSTS INTO
THE IMMEDIATE NEARSHORES, THOUGH INTERNAL CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING EXACT LOCATIONS AND EXTENT INTO THE OPEN WATER, IF THIS
OCCURS AT ALL. AT THIS TIME, OPTING TO FOREGO ANY GALE HEADLINES.
WINDS BRIEFLY FALL BACK BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY MORNING,
BUT INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OUT OF THE NE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES
FOR GALES ARE MUCH LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM, REMAINING 15% OR LESS AT
THIS TIME. THE ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK AS A THIRD SYSTEM KEEPS WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A SLOW SNOW MELT GIVES WAY TO ACCELERATED MELTING THIS WEEKEND AS
THE SNOWPACK BECOMES RIPE FOR MELTING (SNOWPACK TEMPERATURE REACHING
FREEZING) AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND
FAVORABLE MELTING CONDITIONS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEES A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT GULF CONNECTION INTO THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING WARM AND
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WARM UP ON SATURDAY INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES JUST
ECLIPSING FREEZING. TEMPERATURES BROADLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
SATURDAY NIGHT...BEGINNING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE THE FOCUS OF HIGHEST TEMPERATURES, WITH
FORECASTS RANGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (NORMAL HIGHS: 40S
TO LOW 50S, NORMAL LOWS: 20S TO 32) AS PARTS OF THE UP GET PLACED
UNDERNEATH THE WARM SECTOR. THE NBM CURRENTLY HAS HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S, WARMEST IN THE INTERIOR WEST ON SUNDAY AND IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ON MONDAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70 NEAR
THE WI/MI STATE LINE ON SUNDAY AND A 40 TO 60% CHANCE IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ON MONDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MID 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT (15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT!). DURING THIS PERIOD DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SOAR
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S SUNDAY, REMAINING ELEVATED INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL SUPPORT HEAT TRANSFER NEAR THE
SURFACE, INCREASING SNOW MELT EFFICIENCY.
WITH THIS WARMTH AND MOISTURE COMES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH THE NBM SHOWING 40-50%
CHANCES FOR ABOVE 1 INCHES IN 24 HOURS ENDING 8 PM EDT SUNDAY.
STRONGER STORMS MAY BRING AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS
REFLECTED IN THE NBM 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES. A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGS
MEAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS REACHING UP TO 1.25 TO 1.6 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
ALL THESE FACTORS LEAD TO ACCELERATED RATE OF SNOWMELT AND
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PONDING OF WATER ON LOW-LYING/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AS WELL AS MINOR RIVER FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE U.P. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE CONCERNS. MODERATE RIVER FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
ON THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
ALSTON (NOW UP TO A 45-50% CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS). SEE THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. THOSE
LIVING NEAR AND PLANNING TO RECREATE AROUND THE RIVERS AND LOW-LYING
AREAS OF THE U.P. EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST
AND RIVER LEVELS AS THE SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DETERMINE
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...BW
HYDROLOGY...
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