792
FXUS63 KMQT 111903
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
303 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BRING INCREASED SNOWMELT. THIS, COMBINED
WITH PERIODS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
ACCELERATE RIVER RISES AND LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF
UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE IN THE PLEASANT, MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING (WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXITING
THE AREA) IS ALLOWING FOR SUB-FREEZING DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN AT THE
SFC. WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THIS
AFTERNOON, EXPECT RHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR U.P. TO DROP TO
AROUND 30% (MAYBE EVEN THE UPPER 20 PERCENTS) AS THE DEWPOINTS TAKE
THEIR SWEET TIME RISING AS GULF MOISTURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. THUS, WHILE SNOWMELT IS STILL OCCURRING, EXPECT IT TO
CONTINUE BEING GRADUAL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN CHANGES TONIGHT THOUGH AS A WARM FRONT FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OUT OF THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
PUSHES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT COMES RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
SOME OF THE CONVECTION BEING HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THE CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE HIGHEST
(THE LATEST HREF RUN HAS 50-70% CHANCE OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL
FALLING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING).
WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST HAVE THE NEXT-BEST CHANCES FOR
RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE WARM
FRONT, MODEL SPREAD IS HIGHER OVER THESE AREAS (PARTICULARLY THE
NORTH CENTRAL) AS THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
SOME SPOTS TO HAVE A RELATIVE GLUT OF RAINFALL WHILE OTHERS RECEIVE
LESS. AS FOR THE WESTERN U.P., THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH ONLY AROUND A HALF
TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH EXPECTED (CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN AN
INCH OF LIQUID LIMITED TO 10 TO 30%). WHILE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION
AS WELL AS CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THANKS
TO THE WARM FRONT, EXPECT ROBUST ADVECTION FROM THE GULF TO BRING
HIGHS INTO THE 50S AND 60S ON SUNDAY AS LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
EARLY, MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS AT THE SFC ARE PROJECTED TO
FINALLY WARM VIA THE RAINFALL AND GULF MOISTURE, EVENTUALLY SOARING
INTO THE 50S BY LATE SUNDAY. WHILE THE INVERSION NEAR THE SFC
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT
THE STRONG LLJ AT 850MB FROM REACHING THE SFC, WE COULD SEE WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 30 MPH IN THE DOWNSLOPES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE
INVERSION AT AROUND 925MB LOOKS TO NOT BE TOO ROBUST TO HINDER ALL
THE MIXING. WITH NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWING TEMPERATURES IN THE
REMAINING SNOWPACK ALREADY BEING RIGHT AT FREEZING, THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME OF THE
AREA COULD BRING LOCALIZED FLOODING VIA PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THEREFORE, IF YOU SEE ANY FLOODED
AREAS THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AVOID THE
AREA AND TRY TO GO AROUND IT; TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. AS FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT THE CAPE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCKED-UP IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE THE HODOGRAPH LOOKS PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE AND INDICATIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
GIVEN THAT THE SHEARING PROFILE BECOMES MUCH MORE LIMITED ABOVE THE
INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS (WHICH IS WHERE THE CAPE IS), THINKING
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE VERY LOW (2%
OR LESS). IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER DOES OCCUR, THINKING IT WILL BE
MARGINAL HAIL AS THE INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT
SEVERE WINDS AND FROM REACHING THE SFC. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, A
SHORTWAVE LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY BRING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY BEFORE IT'S COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION LOOKS TO WEAKEN NEAR THE SFC
LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, WITH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKENING I'M THINKING THE CHANCES
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW (2% OR LESS) AT THIS
TIME. NEVERTHELESS, I DO THINK THAT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL
BECOME A LITTLE HIGHER LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS ABLE TO BE MIXED INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS PWATS DECREASE.
WHILE A QUICK REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, ADDITIONAL,
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE
RAINFALL MAY EXACERBATE OR SPREAD ANY PONDING OF WATER OR RIVER
FLOODING WE SEE ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO
GULF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA (ALTHOUGH THE
ADVECTION IS NOT GOING TO BE AS STRONG AS IT WILL BE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY). IN ADDITION, EXPECT A NORTH-TO- SOUTH
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TO BEGIN FORMING, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
40S OVER THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW TO NEAR 70 IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
NEAR WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE LAST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING MOVES BACK OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK (SAVE FOR MAYBE THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW), THINKING A
LARGE PORTION OF THE U.P. COULD BE SNOW-FREE BY THE TIME THE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AROUND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WITH AROUND
9-12 INCHES OF SWE STILL REMAINING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS OF
YESTERDAY, THINKING THE KEWEENAW AND SPOTS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
COULD STILL HAVE SOME SPOTS OF SNOWPACK REMAINING BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
A TRAIN OF COLORADO SHORTWAVE LOWS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TO
END NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR PUSHES DOWN
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE. THUS, THINKING WE
MAY SEE SOME MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO ROUND-OUT NEXT WEEK. THIS, IN
TURN, COULD IMPACT FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFICALLY ON FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT, PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR FROM
WEST TO EAST 00-06Z SUN AS RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION, WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z.
ADDED A PROB30 FOR TSRA TO KIWD AFTER 06Z SUN AS THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL HAS INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AT OTHER U.P. TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT PROBS
REMAIN TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN KCMX AND KSAW TAFS. LLWS WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN AS LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE. RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
IN THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN
MVFR OR LOWER THROUGH 18Z SUN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WINDS, WHICH HAVE WEAKENED TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
RESTRENGTHEN TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO AND THROUGH THE
REGION. WHILE THE NBM BRINGS LOW-END GALE CHANCES UP TO AROUND 30%
IN THE EASTERN OPEN WATERS (ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER), THINKING THE LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED;
THUS, NO GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST
PACKAGE. WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SHORTWAVE BEING FAIRLY WEAK, EXPECT ONLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS SEEN BEHIND IT. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD
FROM THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE NOT EXPECTED, THERE IS
TECHNICALLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
THUNDERSTORMS, NAMELY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND QUARTER-SIZED).
AFTER A QUICK REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BESIDES ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, EXPECT WINDS
TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING TUESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER QUICK REPRIEVE TUESDAY NIGHT, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE, WINDS AS OF RIGHT NOW ARE STILL CURRENTLY
SLATED TO REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE AND AFTER THE LOW'S
PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO
KEEP THE WINDS AND WEATHER QUIET OVER THE LAKE AS WE BEGIN HEADING
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE SLOW SNOW MELT SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GIVES WAY TO
ACCELERATED MELTING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LATEST
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE REMAINING SNOWPACK RIPE FOR MELTING
(SNOWPACK TEMPERATURE AT FREEZING). IN ADDITION, WITH TEMPERATURES,
DEWPOINTS, WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING, EXPECT
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND FAVORABLE MELTING CONDITIONS.
WITH A ROBUST GULF CONNECTION SUPPLYING VERY WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S, SAVE FOR MAYBE THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW
AFTER SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND WARM
WITH TIME A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BEGINNING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE THE FOCUS OF HIGHEST TEMPERATURES, WITH
FORECASTS RANGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (NORMAL HIGHS: 40S
TO LOW 50S, NORMAL LOWS: 20S TO 32) AS PARTS OF THE U.P. GET PLACED
UNDERNEATH THE WARM SECTOR. THE GOING FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S, WARMEST IN THE INTERIOR WEST ON SUNDAY AND IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ON MONDAY. THERE IS A 40-80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70 NEAR THE
WI/MI STATE LINE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S
TO MID 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT (15 TO
30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT!). DURING THIS PERIOD DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 50S BY LATE SUNDAY, REMAINING ELEVATED
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AFTER THE COLD FRONT OF A SHORTWAVE LOW
PASSES. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH WILL
SUPPORT HEAT TRANSFER NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
INCREASING SNOW MELT EFFICIENCY.
WITH THIS WARMTH AND MOISTURE COMES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL WHERE THE LATEST HREF LPMM RUN SHOWS A 24 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING OF AROUND 3 INCHES NEAR THE
CITY OF MENOMINEE 1 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL, AROUND 0.75
TO 1 INCH IN THE EAST, AND AROUND 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES IN THE KEWEENAW
AND WEST. THIS IS EVEN CORROBORATED BY THE NBM (WHICH HAS LOWER
QPF), AS EVEN IT SHOWS 20-70% CHANCES FOR ABOVE 1 INCHES IN 24 HOURS
ENDING 8 PM EDT SUNDAY (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL NEAR MENOMINEE,
LOWEST IN THE KEWEENAW AND FAR WEST). STRONGER RAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN SPOTS, AS REFLECTED BY THE NBM
75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES SHOWING AMOUNTS OF 1.25 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN
THE SAME 24 HOUR PERIOD. WHILE SOME CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE SEEN LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT OF A SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH, EXPECT LESS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS EVEN AS DOWNPOURS
COULD BE HEAVY IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEAN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS PREDICTED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE'S PASSAGE ARE BETWEEN
0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS REACHING UP TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL (AS SEEN VIA NBM90TH PERCENTILE).
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS ONE
FINAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY.
ALL THESE FACTORS LEAD TO ACCELERATED RATE OF SNOWMELT AND
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PONDING OF WATER ON LOW-LYING/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AS WELL AS MINOR RIVER FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE U.P. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE CONCERNS. MODERATE RIVER FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
ON THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
ALSTON (NOW UP TO A 45-60% CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS); SEE THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. IN
ADDITION, CHANCES FOR AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ARE INCREASING
FOR AREAS SUCH AS THE BLACK RIVER AT BESSEMER, THE CHOCOLAY RIVER AT
HARVEY, THE MIDDLE BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT HUMBOLDT, THE
EASTERN BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT GWINN, THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION, AND THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE (NOW UP
TO A RANGE OF 30-60%, SAVE FOR NEAR 90% AT GWINN, NEAR NAHMA
JUNCTION, AND NEAR PARADISE). THOSE LIVING NEAR AND PLANNING TO
RECREATE AROUND THE RIVERS AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE U.P. EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST AND RIVER LEVELS AS THE
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DETERMINE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...TAP
HYDROLOGY...DJ/TAP
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