145
FXUS63 KMQT 121815
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
215 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF AT LEAST THE WEEK AS
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POISED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BRING INCREASED SNOWMELT. THIS, COMBINED
WITH PERIODS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
ACCELERATE RIVER RISES AND LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF
UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WARMING AND MOIST CONDITIONS ARE BEING REALIZED ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A WARM FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION,
TRAINING OF STORMS HAS OCCURRED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ALONG THE US-
41/US-2 CORRIDOR BETWEEN IRON MOUNTAIN AND ESCANABA, WITH THE LOCAL
RADAR PREDICTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES OVER THIS AREA.
WHILE A QUICK RESPITE IN THE RAINFALL IS NOW BEING SEEN FOR THE AREA
FOR THE EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON HOURS, ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.P. DURING
THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THUS, AN ADDITIONAL 0.50 TO 1.50
(POTENTIALLY EVEN 2) INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD BE SEEN OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL TODAY BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF
RAINFALL THIS WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL THAT FELL THIS
MORNING, DECIDED TO HOIST UP A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE US-2/US-41
CORRIDOR IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL/NORTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY AS FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL RFC WAS BEING WELL-EXCEEDED.
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL POTENTIALLY MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON,
DECIDED TO REISSUE THE FLOOD WARNING AND KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 345 PM
EDT/245 PM CDT; WILL REEVALUATE JUST BEFORE THEN TO SEE IF THE
WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED OR NOT. WHILE THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE
DONE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, WITH THE VERY MOIST SOIL
CONDITIONS KEEPING THE RECENTLY FALLEN/MELTED LIQUID FROM
PERCOLATING INTO THE GROUND EFFICIENTLY, THE FLOOD WARNING MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED MUCH FURTHER IN TIME THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AS
PONDING OF WATER IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS COULD KEEP ROADWAYS
INUNDATED.
WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, WE MAY
SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT
BEING WEAK, NOT TOO MUCH RAINFALL (IF ANY) IS EXPECTED; MAYBE JUST
UP TO 0.25 INCHES OF LIQUID OR SO IN A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SPOTS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DROPPING IN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO LOOKS
TO GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE CONVECTION ON MONDAY. WHILE THIS RIDGING
IS LOOKING TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY
(GENERALLY 50S TODAY IN COMPARISON TO THE 40S ON MONDAY), HIGHS IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOOK TO INCREASE FROM THE LOWER 60S TODAY TO
APPROACHING 70 ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION, WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER BACK INTO THE 40S AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PRETTY
CALM, SNOWMELT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A DENT ON THE REMAINING
SNOWPACK, ESPECIALLY SINCE TEMPERATURES HAVEN'T GOTTEN BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA SINCE THIS PAST SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
COULD KEEP RIVER RISES STEADY, AS WELL AS KEEP THE SOILS
EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
OUR NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME IN MONDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME CAM
REFLECTIVITIES AND MODEL HODOGRAPH SOUNDINGS HINTING AT SOME STRONG
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE MOST OF THE CAMS DO HAVE REFLECTIVITIES DWINDLING OVER US ONCE
CONVECTION REACHES OUR NECK-OF-THE-WOODS, OTHER SOLUTIONS LIKE THE
NAMNEST SHOW A POTENTIAL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ROLLING ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL U.P. DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE THE CONVECTION IS LOOKING TO MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IT TO BE ALMOST
COMPLETELY ELEVATED, AND WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS ACHIEVING/OVER-
ACHIEVING 50 KNOTS, WE COULD SEE SOME HAIL ABOVE ONE INCH (QUARTER-
SIZED). IN ADDITION, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES ARE LOWER DUE TO THE
CONVECTION BEING ELEVATED, SOME SEVERE WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY PUNCH
DOWN TO THE SFC AS THE INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE. BESIDES THE SEVERE THREAT, FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ONCE
AGAIN LOOKING TO FLARE UP MONDAY NIGHT AS RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY
(THINK DOWNPOURS) AT TIMES WITH SOME LIMITED TRAINING POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION, WITH THE EXTRA RAINFALL ON TOP OF A MELTING
SNOWPACK, EXPECT RIVER RISES AND PONDING OF WATER IN THE LOW-LYING
AREAS, PARTICULARLY WHERE RAINFALL IS HEAVIEST. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS (SAVE FOR
POTENTIALLY THE KEWEENAW) LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AS AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION VIA A SHORTWAVE
LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE SAME
HAZARDS BEING EXPERIENCED NOW AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE
SEEN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE LOW'S PASSAGE TOO. BEHIND THIS THIRD ROUND
OF RAIN, EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS
POTENTIALLY GET INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BY FRIDAY
(THE NBM SHOWS UP TO AROUND A 75% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
70 FOR THE INTERIOR WEST). WITH WINDS ALSO PREDICTED TO INTENSIFY
FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A ROBUST COLD FRONT, WE COULD SEE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT ACROSS THE AREA WHERE SNOWPACK STILL REMAINS.
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE SEEN ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE U.P. FROM WEST TO EAST TOO,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING ELEVATED FLOODING CONCERNS ONCE MORE.
HOWEVER, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT A PATTERN SHIFT AS MORE
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME REALIZED. IN ADDITION, WE
MAY SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS NEXT WEEKEND. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR, THE COLDER AIR FROM BEHIND THE STOUT COLD FRONT WILL
LIMIT SNOWMELT AND HELP TO REDUCE FLOODING CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
BUT PERIODS OF LIFR/VLIFR ARE ALSO EXPECTED, PRIMARILY AT CMX AND
SAW. A WARM FRONT WAS PUSHING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING
WARMER AND MOIST AIR NORTH INTO THE U.P. THIS WAS RESULTING IN FOG
AS THE WARM, MOIST AIR MOVED ACROSS THE SNOWPACK AND COLD WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. CMX WAS BEING IMPACTED BY DENSE FOG AS ONSHORE,
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS IN PLACE. SAW WAS ALSO EXPERIENCING FOG. THIS
EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
LIFT THE FOG AT CMX. LATE TONIGHT A WIND SHIFT WILL BRING NORTHWEST
WINDS INTO THE AREA, LIFTING THE FOG AT SAW BUT LIKELY BRINGING FOG
BACK INTO CMX AS A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL PROBABILITIES ARE LOW (30% OR LESS). A PERIOD
OF LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
SOUTH-SOUTHEAT WIND GUSTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 30-35 KTS ACROSS THE EAST
HALF OF THE LAKE. GALES >35 KTS ARE NOT EXPECTED (<20% CHANCE),
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GALE. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
PEAK BETWEEN 5-10 FT LARGELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LAKE,
FALLING TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 25 KTS LAKE WIDE. A FEW
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
AFTER A QUICK REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BESIDES ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, EXPECT WINDS
TO BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING TUESDAY. AFTER ANOTHER QUICK REPRIEVE TUESDAY NIGHT, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LAKE, WINDS AS OF RIGHT NOW ARE STILL CURRENTLY
SLATED TO REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE AND AFTER THE LOW'S
PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO
KEEP THE WINDS AND WEATHER QUIET OVER THE LAKE AS WE BEGIN HEADING
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE SLOW SNOW MELT SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS GIVES WAY TO
ACCELERATED MELTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LATEST NOHRSC
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE REMAINING SNOWPACK RIPE FOR MELTING (SNOWPACK
TEMPERATURE AT FREEZING). IN ADDITION, WITH TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS,
WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING, EXPECT POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT RIVER RISES EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
AND FAVORABLE MELTING CONDITIONS.
WITH A ROBUST GULF CONNECTION SUPPLYING VERY WARM, MOIST AIR TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
GENERALLY INTO THE 50S AND 60S, SAVE FOR MAYBE THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW
AFTER SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE COMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND MONDAY ARE THE FOCUS OF HIGHEST TEMPERATURES, WITH
FORECASTS RANGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (NORMAL HIGHS: 40S
TO LOW 50S, NORMAL LOWS: 20S TO 32) AS PARTS OF THE U.P. GET PLACED
UNDERNEATH THE WARM SECTOR. THE GOING FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S, WARMEST IN THE INTERIOR WEST TODAY AND IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ON MONDAY. THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 70 NEAR THE WI/MI
STATE LINE ON TODAY AND MONDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S TO MID
50S TONIGHT AND MID 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT (15 TO 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL). DURING THIS PERIOD DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE 50S TONIGHT, REMAINING ELEVATED INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AFTER THE
COLD FRONT OF A SHORTWAVE LOW PASSES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL SUPPORT HEAT TRANSFER NEAR THE SURFACE TODAY, INCREASING
SNOW MELT EFFICIENCY.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE COMING WORKWEEK. THE ONGOING PRECIP EVENT WILL BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 1.25" BY MONDAY MORNING (LEAST WEST, GREATEST S-
CENTRAL AND EAST, LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEAN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS PREDICTED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE'S PASSAGE ARE BETWEEN
0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS REACHING UP TO
1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL (AS SEEN VIA NBM90TH PERCENTILE).
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS ONE
FINAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR
ON WEDNESDAY.
ALL THESE FACTORS LEAD TO ACCELERATED RATE OF SNOWMELT AND
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PONDING OF WATER ON LOW-LYING/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AS WELL AS MINOR RIVER FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE U.P. TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE CONCERNS. MODERATE RIVER FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
ON THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS AND THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
ALSTON (NOW UP TO A 45-60% CHANCE IN THESE LOCATIONS); SEE THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. IN
ADDITION, CHANCES FOR AT LEAST MINOR RIVER FLOODING ARE INCREASING
FOR AREAS SUCH AS THE BLACK RIVER AT BESSEMER, THE CHOCOLAY RIVER AT
HARVEY, THE MIDDLE BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT HUMBOLDT, THE
EASTERN BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT GWINN, THE STURGEON RIVER
NEAR NAHMA JUNCTION, AND THE TAHQUAMENON RIVER NEAR PARADISE (NOW UP
TO A RANGE OF 30-60%, SAVE FOR NEAR 90% AT GWINN, NEAR NAHMA
JUNCTION, AND NEAR PARADISE). THOSE LIVING NEAR AND PLANNING TO
RECREATE AROUND THE RIVERS AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE U.P. EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST AND RIVER LEVELS AS THE
SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DETERMINE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-
084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
LSZ162-243>246-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...BW/TAP
HYDROLOGY...WFO MQT
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