104
FXUS63 KMQT 131140
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS INTO THE UP
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE STATELINE BORDER
COUNTIES.
- HEAVY RAIN WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
TONIGHT'S RAINFALL EVENT.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BRING INCREASED SNOWMELT. THIS, COMBINED
WITH PERIODS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS, WILL
ACCELERATE RIVER RISES AND LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN AREAS
WITH POOR DRAINAGE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF
UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A HANDFUL OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING ~994 SFC LOW IS
LIFTING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO JAMES BAY, DRAGGING ITS SFC COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL UP (AT THE TIME OF WRITING THIS
DISCUSSION). SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON KMQT RADAR IMAGERY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY TAPERING OFF AS
THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DEPARTS THE
AREA. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO SKIRT ALONG THE UP/WI
BORDER THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH NOT MUCH MORE QPF EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM, HOVERING LARGELY IN THE MID TO
LOW 50S THOUGH A FEW 40S ARE SEEN CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORES AND NEAR
60 OBS SEEN ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS ALSO NOTED ON
AREA OBS/WEBCAMS GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
IMPRESSIVELY DENSE ADVECTION FOG SEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING HERE AT
THE WFO IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP HAS SINCE DIMINISHED, BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE LINGERING FOG COME BACK IN AS WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH SUNRISE.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW AND
NORTHERN ONTARIO SFC HIGH PRESSURE KEEP THINGS MOSTLY QUIET UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SW CLIMBS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S WHILE THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UP REMAINS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S, MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SOAKING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHARP MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, HOWEVER,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND THUS THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE STATELINE BY ~10 PM EDT.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
NEAR 40 KTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 0.5-1" HAIL, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE STATELINE BORDER
COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON, SPC HAS INCLUDED A LEVEL 2/5 SLIGHT RISK
FOR THE UP/WI BORDER COUNTIES WITH A LEVEL 1/5 MARGINAL RISK FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT (PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY), HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. WITH ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ALREADY PRIMED FROM RECENT RAIN AND ONGOING SNOWMELT,
FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT. WPC HOLDS A LEVEL 1/4
MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE UP TODAY. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SPATIAL EXTENT OF PRECIP LIFTING INTO THE UP TONIGHT. INDIVIDUAL CAM
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS, WITH THE
LATEST HREF SUGGESTING A 40-60% CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE S-CENTRAL
RECEIVING AN ADDITIONAL 1" OF RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE
NBM (AND A FEW CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR) ENSEMBLE SHUNTS MOST OF THE
QPF FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WI. TRENDS IN CAM GUIDANCE WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED AND THE GOING FORECAST, WHICH HAS A WIDESPREAD 0.5-
1" ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP, MAY NEED TO BE ALTERED.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DEWPOINTS (SAVE FOR
POTENTIALLY THE KEWEENAW) REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION VIA A SHORTWAVE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS THIRD ROUND OF RAIN, EXPECT THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS POTENTIALLY GET INTO THE LOWER 70S
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BY FRIDAY (THE NBM SHOWS UP TO AROUND A 75%
CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 70 FOR THE INTERIOR WEST). WITH
WINDS ALSO PREDICTED TO INTENSIFY FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A ROBUST
COLD FRONT, WE COULD SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT ACROSS THE AREA
WHERE SNOWPACK STILL REMAINS. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD ALSO BE SEEN ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
U.P. FROM WEST TO EAST TOO, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ELEVATED FLOODING
CONCERNS ONCE MORE.
HOWEVER, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT A PATTERN SHIFT AS MORE
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BECOME REALIZED. IN ADDITION, WE
MAY SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS NEXT WEEKEND. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR, THE COLDER AIR FROM BEHIND THE STOUT COLD FRONT WILL
LIMIT SNOWMELT AND HELP TO REDUCE FLOODING CONCERNS AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE UP CONTINUES TO LEAD TO IFR CEILINGS
AT CMX AND SAW, WITH MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY THERE AS WELL. AT IWD,
MEANWHILE, CEILINGS ARE LIFTING TO MVFR. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
GENERALLY TO MVFR IS EXPECTED AT CMX AND SAW INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT
THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL
BRING ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR AGAIN BETWEEN 00-03Z. AS RAIN BEGINS
TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z, LINGERING FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL KEEP IN IFR OR EVEN LIFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
A PASSING COLD FRONT HAS LARGELY SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NW THIS
MORNING, DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KTS. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND MAY BE EXTENDED FURTHER
INTO THE DAY BASED ON LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH
THE AREA KICKS UP BREEZY E TO NE WINDS (LARGELY BELOW 25 KTS SAVE
FOR THE EASTERN ARM OF THE LAKE) TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WINDS LOOK TO MOSTLY STAY 20
KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE LAKE. ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. MORE ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER
RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR GALES TO 35 KTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A FEW STRONGER SYSTEMS, THOUGH THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
IN RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING AMBIENT
AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK,
RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE REMAINING
SNOWPACK MELTS AWAY. IN ADDITION, THE HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES MAY
ACCELERATE THE LIQUID ENTERING INTO THE STREAMS, RIVERS, AND
WATERWAYS OF THE UP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UP WHERE
EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH YESTERDAY HEAVY RAIN
WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING ALREADY FELT. RIVER OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECASTS HAVE INCREASED IN MEASURED AND EXPECTED WATER LEVEL
HEIGHTS, WITH MODERATE FLOODING STILL EXPECTED FOR THE PAINT RIVER
IN CRYSTAL FALLS THE STURGEON RIVER IN ALSTON; THE LATEST RIVER
FORECAST FOR CRYSTAL FALLS HAS THE PAINT RIVER GETTING UP TO A
HEIGHT OF 8.2 FEET, BUT WITH THE RIVER OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
EXCEEDING THE RIVER FORECAST, ITS POSSIBLE RECORD FLOODING COULD
BE SEEN (9.8 FEET).
ELSEWHERE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN, OTHER RIVERS HAVE BEEN PUT UNDER A
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORY AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO BANKFULL;
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL
ACHIEVE FLOOD STAGE AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF SNOWPACK MELT
AND RAINFALL THIS WEEK. THE RIVERS ARE: THE BLACK RIVER NEAR
BESSEMER, THE CHOCOLAY RIVER AT HARVEY, AND THE MIDDLE BRANCH OF THE
ESCANABA RIVER AT HUMBOLDT. AS OF THIS MORNING, THE BLACK RIVER HAD
OVER A 30% CHANCE OF GETTING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. MEANWHILE, THE
CHOCOLAY AT HARVEY AND THE MIDDLE BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT
HUMBOLDT HAVE OVER A 50% CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATER
THIS WEEK. EASTERN DELTA COUNTY HAS RECEIVED ENOUGH RAIN YESTERDAY
THAT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
NAHMA JUNCTION ALREADY AT BANKFULL; THUS A RIVER FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS FOR IT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. OUTSIDE OF THESE SPOTS, OTHERS
LIKE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT GWINN AND THE
MICHIGAMME RIVER AT WITCH LAKE COULD GET TO BANKFULL OR MORE LATER
THIS WEEK. THIS MORNING'S HEFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A 70%
CHANCE THAT THE ESCANABA RIVER IN GWINN GETS TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
OUTSIDE OF THESE RIVERS, THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SPOTS WHERE
FLOODING AND BANKFULL STAGES COULD BE ACHIEVED. IN ADDITION, EXPECT
THE SATURATED SOILS OVER THE U.P. TO POTENTIALLY KEEP THE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS INUNDATED WITH WATER. THEREFORE, IF YOU
SEE ANY FLOODING PLEASE REPORT IT TO THE NWS AND GO AROUND IT; TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. WITH SNOWMELT CONTINUING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY
NIGHT, FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE UNTIL COLDER AIR ARRIVES BY
SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMEST WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, EXPECT
SNOWMELT TO ACCELERATE AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
AND DEWPOINTS REACH UP TO AROUND 50 ONCE AGAIN. THUS, WE MAY SEE
RIVER RISES INTENSIFY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE COLD
FRONT COMBINED WITH THE SNOWMELT COULD EXACERBATE RIVER RISES AND
FLOODING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. HOWEVER, AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES EARLY SATURDAY, EXPECT THE SNOWMELT TO BECOME LIMITED IF NOT
CEASE ENTIRELY AS LIGHT LAKE ENHANCE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES OVER
THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, WE MAY SEE FLOOD CONCERNS START TO
ALLEVIATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-
084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR LSZ162-243>246-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...BW
HYDROLOGY...
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