289
FXUS63 KMQT 131756
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
156 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS INTO THE UP
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATELINE
BORDER COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES SEEM TO BE DECREASING AS
MOST CONVECTION IS NOW PREDICTED SOUTH OF US IN WISCONSIN.
- ANY HEAVY RAINFALL RECEIVED WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
CONCERNS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH
FLOODING WITH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING'S RAINFALL
EVENT.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BRING INCREASED SNOWMELT. THIS, COMBINED
WITH PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL ACCELERATE RIVER RISES AND LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINING ACROSS MOST
OF THE U.P. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE THANKS TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS MOVING OVER THE REMAINING MELTING
SNOWPACK, WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME FOG PROBLEMS SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH SUNSHINE NOW STARTING TO SHOW ITSELF IN
SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES DOWN THAT WAY
ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THINKING THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS THE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY GIVES
WAY TO SUNSHINE.
THAT BEING SAID, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE U.P. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THANKFULLY
FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER PURPOSES, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO WISCONSIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THUS, LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN COMPARISON TO 24 HOURS, AS WELL AS THE
THREAT BEING LOWERED FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THAT BEING SAID, WE COULD
SEE SOME SPOTS GET TO AROUND HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID, WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SPOT OR TWO GETTING UP TO 1 INCH IF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
HANGS OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS; THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE FLOODING WAS AND STILL IS BEING
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY TO NOW. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE LATEST HREF STILL
BRINGS A 10 TO 40% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1" OF RAINFALL TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE INTERIOR WEST, SOUTH CENTRAL, AND EAST,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST.
SHOULD THE RAINIER SOLUTIONS PLAY OUT, WE MAY SEE FLOODING
EXACERBATED OVER THESE AREAS AS US-2 AND US-41 CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER FLOWING OVER THEM IN NORTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. IN THE LOW (5%
OR LESS) CHANCE THAT WE SEE SEVERE WEATHER, EXPECT DAMAGING HAIL
FOLLOWED BY SEVERE WINDS. HOWEVER, WITH CAMS BRINGING CONVECTION
FURTHER SOUTH, THINKING THE UN-WORKED AIRFLOW INTO CONVECTION GOING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED, AND THUS SO SHOULD
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT; THE AREA WHERE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS GREATEST IS MENOMINEE COUNTY.
BEHIND THE CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECT A
PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOPEFULLY THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
HELP TO REDUCE THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THIS WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE U.P. LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT; WHETHER THIS SHORTWAVE
BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE U.P. OR NOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WEAKENING THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE RECENTLY, IT MAY ONLY GRAZE THE SOUTH AS IT POTENTIALLY
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN; AGAIN, IT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE REMNANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEAK MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS A COLD AIR
FROM NORTHERN CANADA CAUSES A ROBUST COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. WITH PWATS LOOKING TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE WARM SECTOR VIA GULF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, THE NBM BRINGS UP TO A 90% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
GREATER THAN 70 TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AS DEWPOINTS HAVE A
20 TO 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 50 DEGREES (HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST). COMBINED WITH INTENSIFYING
SOUTHERLY WINDS, THIS BECOMES A RECIPE FOR ACCELERATING SNOWMELT ON
THE SNOWPACK THAT WE HAVE LEFT ACROSS THE AREA. NOW, WHERE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES FOR THIS WEEK IS WHETHER OR NOT A SHORTWAVE LOW LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE AND/OR AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT HIGHER RAIN TOTALS IF A SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IF A SHORTWAVE LOW ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (LIKE THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC
EURO IS SUGGESTING), THEN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. MAY BE IN FOR
A SIGNIFICANT WET SNOWFALL EVENT. THEREFORE, WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. REGARDLESS, THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AT THE VERY LEAST LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND SNOW BELTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IWD AND CMX WILL BE MAINLY MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST AIR INTERACTING WITH THE SNOWPACK AND UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFR AND VLIFR AT SAW. SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT, AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. RAINFALL, IN ADDITION TO OVERNIGHT
COOLING WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
A PASSING COLD FRONT HAS LARGELY SHIFTED WINDS TO THE NW THIS
MORNING, DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KTS. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND MAY BE EXTENDED FURTHER
INTO THE DAY BASED ON LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. WINDS REMAIN
BELOW 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH
THE AREA KICKS UP BREEZY E TO NE WINDS (LARGELY BELOW 25 KTS SAVE
FOR THE EASTERN ARM OF THE LAKE) TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WINDS LOOK TO MOSTLY STAY 20
KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE LAKE. ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. MORE ACTIVE MARINE WEATHER
RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 30-50%
CHANCE FOR GALES TO 35 KTS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A FEW STRONGER SYSTEMS, THOUGH THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026
IN RESPONSE TO THE RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING AMBIENT
AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK,
RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE REMAINING
SNOWPACK MELTS AWAY. IN ADDITION, THE HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES MAY
ACCELERATE THE LIQUID ENTERING INTO THE STREAMS, RIVERS, AND
WATERWAYS OF THE UP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UP WHERE
EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH YESTERDAY HEAVY RAIN
WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING ALREADY FELT. RIVER OBSERVATIONS AND
FORECASTS HAVE INCREASED IN MEASURED AND EXPECTED WATER LEVEL
HEIGHTS, WITH MODERATE FLOODING STILL EXPECTED FOR THE PAINT RIVER
IN CRYSTAL FALLS THE STURGEON RIVER IN ALSTON; THE LATEST RIVER
FORECAST FOR CRYSTAL FALLS HAS THE PAINT RIVER GETTING UP TO A
HEIGHT OF 8.2 FEET, BUT WITH THE RIVER OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
EXCEEDING THE RIVER FORECAST, ITS POSSIBLE RECORD FLOODING COULD
BE SEEN (9.8 FEET).
ELSEWHERE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN, OTHER RIVERS HAVE BEEN PUT UNDER A
RIVER FLOOD ADVISORY AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO BANKFULL;
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL
ACHIEVE FLOOD STAGE AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF SNOWPACK MELT
AND RAINFALL THIS WEEK. THE RIVERS ARE: THE BLACK RIVER NEAR
BESSEMER, THE CHOCOLAY RIVER AT HARVEY, AND THE MIDDLE BRANCH OF THE
ESCANABA RIVER AT HUMBOLDT. AS OF THIS MORNING, THE BLACK RIVER HAD
OVER A 30% CHANCE OF GETTING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. MEANWHILE, THE
CHOCOLAY AT HARVEY AND THE MIDDLE BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT
HUMBOLDT HAVE OVER A 50% CHANCE OF REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATER
THIS WEEK. EASTERN DELTA COUNTY HAS RECEIVED ENOUGH RAIN YESTERDAY
THAT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR
NAHMA JUNCTION ALREADY AT BANKFULL; THUS A RIVER FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS FOR IT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. OUTSIDE OF THESE SPOTS, OTHERS
LIKE THE EAST BRANCH OF THE ESCANABA RIVER AT GWINN AND THE
MICHIGAMME RIVER AT WITCH LAKE COULD GET TO BANKFULL OR MORE LATER
THIS WEEK. THIS MORNING'S HEFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE IS A 70%
CHANCE THAT THE ESCANABA RIVER IN GWINN GETS TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
OUTSIDE OF THESE RIVERS, THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SPOTS WHERE
FLOODING AND BANKFULL STAGES COULD BE ACHIEVED. IN ADDITION, EXPECT
THE SATURATED SOILS OVER THE U.P. TO POTENTIALLY KEEP THE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING AREAS INUNDATED WITH WATER. THEREFORE, IF YOU
SEE ANY FLOODING PLEASE REPORT IT TO THE NWS AND GO AROUND IT; TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
ASIDE FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. WITH SNOWMELT CONTINUING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY
NIGHT, FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE UNTIL COLDER AIR ARRIVES BY
SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMEST WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, EXPECT
SNOWMELT TO ACCELERATE AS WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
AND DEWPOINTS REACH UP TO AROUND 50 ONCE AGAIN. THUS, WE MAY SEE
RIVER RISES INTENSIFY LATE THIS WEEK AS THE RAINFALL ALONG THE COLD
FRONT COMBINED WITH THE SNOWMELT COULD EXACERBATE RIVER RISES AND
FLOODING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA. HOWEVER, AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES EARLY SATURDAY, EXPECT THE SNOWMELT TO BECOME LIMITED IF NOT
CEASE ENTIRELY AS LIGHT LAKE ENHANCE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW MOVES OVER
THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, WE MAY SEE FLOOD CONCERNS START TO
ALLEVIATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-
084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...BW
HYDROLOGY...TAP/BW
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