832
FXUS63 KMQT 131904
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
304 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS INTO THE UP
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATELINE
BORDER COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES SEEM TO BE DECREASING AS
MOST CONVECTION IS NOW PREDICTED SOUTH OF US IN WISCONSIN.
- ANY HEAVY RAINFALL RECEIVED WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING
CONCERNS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH
FLOODING WITH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING'S RAINFALL
EVENT.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BRING INCREASED SNOWMELT. THIS, COMBINED
WITH PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL ACCELERATE RIVER RISES AND LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINING ACROSS MOST
OF THE U.P. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE THANKS TO THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS MOVING OVER THE REMAINING MELTING
SNOWPACK, WHICH HAS CAUSED SOME FOG PROBLEMS SINCE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH SUNSHINE NOW STARTING TO SHOW ITSELF IN
SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES DOWN THAT WAY
ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. THINKING THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE
SEEN ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AS THE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY GIVES
WAY TO SUNSHINE.
THAT BEING SAID, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE U.P. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THANKFULLY
FOR FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER PURPOSES, IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO WISCONSIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THUS, LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN COMPARISON TO 24 HOURS, AS WELL AS THE
THREAT BEING LOWERED FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THAT BEING SAID, WE COULD
SEE SOME SPOTS GET TO AROUND HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID, WITH MAYBE AN
ISOLATED SPOT OR TWO GETTING UP TO 1 INCH IF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
HANGS OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS; THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS STILL
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE FLOODING WAS AND STILL IS BEING
SEEN FROM YESTERDAY TO NOW. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE LATEST HREF STILL
BRINGS A 10 TO 40% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 1" OF RAINFALL TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE INTERIOR WEST, SOUTH CENTRAL, AND EAST,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST.
SHOULD THE RAINIER SOLUTIONS PLAY OUT, WE MAY SEE FLOODING
EXACERBATED OVER THESE AREAS AS US-2 AND US-41 CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER FLOWING OVER THEM IN NORTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. IN THE LOW (5%
OR LESS) CHANCE THAT WE SEE SEVERE WEATHER, EXPECT DAMAGING HAIL
FOLLOWED BY SEVERE WINDS. HOWEVER, WITH CAMS BRINGING CONVECTION
FURTHER SOUTH, THINKING THE UN-WORKED AIRFLOW INTO CONVECTION GOING
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT WILL BE LIMITED, AND THUS SO SHOULD
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT; THE AREA WHERE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS GREATEST IS MENOMINEE COUNTY.
BEHIND THE CONVECTION TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, EXPECT A
PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOPEFULLY THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
HELP TO REDUCE THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF
THIS WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE U.P. LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT; WHETHER THIS SHORTWAVE
BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE U.P. OR NOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WEAKENING THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE RECENTLY, IT MAY ONLY GRAZE THE SOUTH AS IT POTENTIALLY
MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN; AGAIN, IT WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE REMNANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO.
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEAK MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS A COLD AIR
FROM NORTHERN CANADA CAUSES A ROBUST COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. WITH PWATS LOOKING TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE WARM SECTOR VIA GULF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, THE NBM BRINGS UP TO A 90% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
GREATER THAN 70 TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AS DEWPOINTS HAVE A
20 TO 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 50 DEGREES (HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST). COMBINED WITH INTENSIFYING
SOUTHERLY WINDS, THIS BECOMES A RECIPE FOR ACCELERATING SNOWMELT ON
THE SNOWPACK THAT WE HAVE LEFT ACROSS THE AREA. NOW, WHERE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES FOR THIS WEEK IS WHETHER OR NOT A SHORTWAVE LOW LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE AND/OR AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT HIGHER RAIN TOTALS IF A SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IF A SHORTWAVE LOW ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (LIKE THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC
EURO IS SUGGESTING), THEN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. MAY BE IN FOR
A SIGNIFICANT WET SNOWFALL EVENT. THEREFORE, WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. REGARDLESS, THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AT THE VERY LEAST LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND SNOW BELTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IWD AND CMX WILL BE MAINLY MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST AIR INTERACTING WITH THE SNOWPACK AND UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LIFR AND VLIFR AT SAW. SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT, AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. RAINFALL, IN ADDITION TO OVERNIGHT
COOLING WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORKWEEK AS SHORTWAVE LOWS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LAKE SUPERIOR OCCASIONALLY BETWEEN TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAY KEEP THE LAKE DRY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING. NEVERTHELESS, HERE ARE THE TIME PERIODS
WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR:
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY, AND THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID, THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY REMAINS LOW AS THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO LIFT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH TO IMPACT
LAKE SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES, WE
MAY SEE FOG FORM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR A FEW TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK;
INDEED, MARINE DENSE FOG IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TONIGHT AND
MAY WARRANT A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE MAIN PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE PERIOD LOOKS TO COME LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
CONUS. EXPECT INCREASING AIRFLOW FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TO INTENSIFY WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY, WITH
OVER A 30% CHANCE (HIGHEST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EAST
ACCORDING TO THE NBM) OF INCREASING TO GALES OF AT LEAST 34 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LAKE AROUND THE
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AS THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IMPROVES MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS GALE CHANCES INCREASE UP
TO 50% LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
WINDS, SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026
IN RESPONSE TO THE ONGOING SNOWMELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED
YESTERDAY, RIVER RISES AND FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS ARE
EXPECTED/ARE OCCURRING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE RAINFALL UP TO 4 INCHES FELL, CAUSING INUNDATION
OVER SEVERAL ROADWAYS (INCLUDING US-2/US-41) EVEN THROUGH TODAY.
WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR WISCONSIN LOST THE ENTIRETY OF THEIR
SNOWPACK YESTERDAY THROUGH LAST NIGHT, SEVERAL INCHES TO OVER A
FOOT(!) OF SWE REMAINS OVER THE KEWEENAW AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P., AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.P.
UPSLOPE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND BELTS. THUS,
WHILE FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK TO START DWINDLING OVER THE AREAS NEAR
WISCONSIN AFTER TUESDAY, EXPECT CONTINUED SNOWMELT OVER THE
REMAINING AREAS TO CONTINUE RIVER RISES OVER THOSE AREAS WITH OR
DOWNBASIN FROM AN AREA WITH NOTABLE SNOWPACK REMAINING.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE RAINFALL CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK (INCLUDING TONIGHT, WHICH I WILL TOUCH ON IN THE NEXT
PARAGRAPH), RIVER FLOODING TO BANKFULL CONDITIONS ARE BEING SEEN
ACROSS SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. STARTING WITH THE BLACK
RIVER NEAR BESSEMER, THE QUICK LOSS OF SNOWPACK WITH THE RAINFALL
YESTERDAY HAS CREATED MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS WHICH ARE FORECASTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY; BANKFULL CONDITIONS FOR THE BLACK RIVER
LOOK TO CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. MOVING OVER TO THE STURGEON
RIVER AT ALSTON, MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY BEING REALIZED; WITH
PLENTY OF SNOWPACK LEFT TO MELT, EXPECT THE RIVER LEVELS TO SLOWLY
RISE THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH RIVER
LEVELS AT ALSTON AND HIGH FLOW AT PRICKETT DAM MAY ALSO BRING
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS TO CHASSELL LATER THIS WEEK; WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS OVER THERE AND ISSUE PRODUCTS
ACCORDINGLY SHOULD BANKFULL AND/OR FLOODSTAGE BE ACHIEVED ALONG THE
STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL. MOVING ALONG TO THE PAINT RIVER AT
CRYSTAL FALLS, MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED STARTING LATE TUESDAY
AS WE MOVE INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT QUITE
LOOKING TO GET INTO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE, RIVER HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO GET UP TO 8.5", WHICH DOES START TO APPROACH THE RIVER
FLOOD OF RECORD. MOVING INTO THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN, SOME
BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO MINOR RIVER FLOODING LOOKS POSSIBLE AT
BANGSTON BRIDGE AND WITCH LAKE LATE THIS WEEK AS THE SNOWMELT IN THE
BASIN PROGRESSIVELY MELTS AND INCREASES FLOWS WITH TIME. AS FOR THE
FORD RIVER, WE ARE CURRENTLY FLIRTING WITH BANKFULL CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD GO OVER TONIGHT GIVEN THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
(SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES). MOVING OVER TO THE ESCANABA
RIVER, BANKFULL TO MINOR RIVER FLOOD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE BRANCH AT HUMBOLDT AND THE EASTERN BRANCH AT GWINN. GIVEN
THE RECENT CALL WITH ONE OF THE DAM OPERATORS IN ESCANABA ABOUT THE
HIGH FLOWS, WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SNOWMELT IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COULD HELP TO PUSH-
UP CFS TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS. AS FOR THE STURGEON RIVER (DELTA COUNTY)
AT NAHMA JUNCTION, THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT HAS CAUSED
RIVER LEVELS TO EXCEED BANKFULL; I'D BE SHOCKED IF THE RIVER DOESN'T
GO INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE SHORTLY AS EVEN THE HEFS SHOWS THE RIVER
AT ABOUT 100% FOR GETTING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. AS FOR THE
MANISTIQUE RIVER, THE INCREASING SNOWMELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RECENTLY (AND POTENTIALLY TONIGHT) COULD BRING ABOVE BANKFULL RIVER
LEVELS, POTENTIALLY CAUSING PONDING OF WATER AND INUNDATION IN LOW-
LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER TUESDAY AND BEYOND; A FLOOD ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS RIVER'S AREA OF INFLUENCE IN THE FUTURE.
ONE MORE THING WORTH MENTIONING: WHILE THE FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO
PROGRESSIVELY DECREASE IN THE AREAS NEAR WISCONSIN THIS WEEK, WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING (MAINLY) THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, FLOODING CONCERNS MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED AS THE AREA IS STILL INUNDATED FROM THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL
AND SNOWMELT. AS OF NOW, THE SOUTH CENTRAL HAS UP TO A 40% CHANCE OF
RECEIVING OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID TONIGHT. WITH THE RAINFALL
POTENTIALLY BEING A TORRENTIAL DOWNPOUR AT TIMES, FLOODING ALONG THE
US-2/US-41 CORRIDOR BETWEEN IRON MOUNTAIN AND ESCANABA MAY WORSEN;
ADDITIONAL ROADWAYS AND AREAS MAY BE INUNDATED AS THE WATER WITHIN
IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS INCREASES IN HEIGHT. THEREFORE, A FLOOD
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN DICKINSON,
NORTHERN MENOMINEE, AND WESTERN DELTA COUNTY AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS
EVENING AS THE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO MAKE THERE
WAY INTO THE U.P.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-
084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...TAP
HYDROLOGY...TAP
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