643
FXUS63 KMQT 141758
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
158 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY GRAZE THE UP.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ONWARDS.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BRING INCREASED SNOWMELT. THIS, COMBINED
WITH PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL ACCELERATE RIVER RISES AND LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER IA, WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF THIS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LP. FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WAS ABLE TO BRING IN QUITE A
BIT OF RAIN TO THE UP TONIGHT, BUT THIS IS TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AT THIS TIME; RAIN SHOULD ENTIRELY IN THE EASTERN UP INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. IN ITS WAKE, WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS, AREAS OF FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UP, DENSE AT
TIMES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A MILD
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING AS FAR AS THE MID 30S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR, AND THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOPEFULLY THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE U.P. LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THE FIRST
GRAZING US TO THE NORTH AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH. WHETHER THIS
SHORTWAVE BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE U.P. OR NOT WILL DEPEND ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN SPITE OF
LACKLUSTER QPF, HOWEVER, FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH TODAY WITH THE ONGOING SNOWMELT AND LINGERING IMPACTS FROM
THIS PAST NIGHT'S RAIN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY AS
TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR, THE 50S INLAND OVER
THE EASTERN UP, AND THE LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UP. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S TONIGHT BEFORE PEAKING AGAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON THE
STRENGTH OF RIDGING EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO, WHICH COULD SUPPRESS
THIS FEATURE MORE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA.
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEAK MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AS A COLD AIR
FROM NORTHERN CANADA CAUSES A ROBUST COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. WITH PWATS LOOKING TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE WARM SECTOR VIA GULF AIR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, THE NBM BRINGS UP TO A 90% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
GREATER THAN 70 TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AS DEWPOINTS HAVE A
20 TO 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 50 DEGREES (HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR WEST). COMBINED WITH INTENSIFYING
SOUTHERLY WINDS, THIS BECOMES A RECIPE FOR ACCELERATING SNOWMELT ON
THE SNOWPACK THAT WE HAVE LEFT ACROSS THE AREA. NOW, WHERE GUIDANCE
DIVERGES FOR THIS WEEK IS WHETHER OR NOT A SHORTWAVE LOW LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE AND/OR AFTER THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT HIGHER RAIN TOTALS IF A SHORTWAVE ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AS THE COLD FRONT COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IF A SHORTWAVE LOW ROLLS THROUGH THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT (LIKE THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC
EURO IS SUGGESTING), THEN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. MAY BE IN FOR
A SIGNIFICANT WET SNOWFALL EVENT. THEREFORE, WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT TO SEE IF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION. REGARDLESS, THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AT THE VERY LEAST LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND SNOW BELTS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHILE SAW AND IWD START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD OUT WITH LOW END MVFR
CIGS AND VFR VIS, CMX WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE UPSLOPE LIFR TO IFR
FOG AND LOW CIGS. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR
TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SETS UP OVER THE REGION COURTESY OF
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH WEAK FLOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
NE WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 20KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ARM OF
THE LAKE, BUT SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AREAS OF
FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING, AND MAY BE DENSE AT
TIMES. FOG DIMINISHES INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS (WITH SOME THUNDER) MOVING OVER THE LAKE HIS EVENING. FOG
DEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE N TO NE TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE MAIN PATTERN SHIFT FOR THE PERIOD LOOKS TO COME LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WINDS INTENSIFY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY, WITH
OVER A 30% CHANCE (HIGHEST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE) OF INCREASING TO GALES OF AT LEAST 34 KNOTS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LAKE AROUND THE
SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AS THE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IMPROVES MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS GALE CHANCES INCREASE UP
TO 50% LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
WINDS, SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 244 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
IN RESPONSE TO THE ONGOING SNOWMELT AND LINGERING IMPACTS FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED THIS PAST NIGHT, RIVER RISES AND FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS ARE EXPECTED/ARE OCCURRING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES FELL.
WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA NEAR WISCONSIN LOST THE ENTIRETY OF THEIR
SNOWPACK, SEVERAL INCHES TO OVER A FOOT(!) OF SWE REMAINS OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P., AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.P. UPSLOPE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE
NORTHWEST WIND BELTS. THUS, WHILE FLOODING CONCERNS LOOK TO START
DWINDLING OVER THE AREAS NEAR WISCONSIN AFTER TUESDAY, EXPECT
CONTINUED SNOWMELT OVER THE REMAINING AREAS TO CONTINUE RIVER RISES
OVER THOSE AREAS WITH OR DOWNBASIN FROM AN AREA WITH NOTABLE
SNOWPACK REMAINING.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE RAINFALL CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK, RIVER FLOODING TO BANKFULL CONDITIONS ARE BEING SEEN
ACROSS SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. STARTING WITH THE BLACK
RIVER NEAR BESSEMER, THE QUICK LOSS OF SNOWPACK WITH THE RAINFALL
YESTERDAY HAS CREATED MINOR FLOODING CONDITIONS WHICH ARE FORECASTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY; BANKFULL CONDITIONS FOR THE BLACK RIVER
LOOK TO CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. MOVING OVER TO THE STURGEON
RIVER AT ALSTON, MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY BEING REALIZED; WITH
PLENTY OF SNOWPACK LEFT TO MELT, EXPECT THE RIVER LEVELS TO SLOWLY
RISE THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH RIVER
LEVELS AT ALSTON AND HIGH FLOW AT PRICKETT DAM MAY ALSO BRING
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS TO CHASSELL LATER THIS WEEK; WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS OVER THERE AND ISSUE PRODUCTS
ACCORDINGLY SHOULD BANKFULL AND/OR FLOODSTAGE BE ACHIEVED ALONG THE
STURGEON RIVER AT CHASSELL. MOVING ALONG TO THE PAINT RIVER AT
CRYSTAL FALLS, MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED STARTING LATE TUESDAY
AS WE MOVE INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. WHILE NOT QUITE
LOOKING TO GET INTO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE, RIVER HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO GET UP TO 8.5", WHICH DOES START TO APPROACH THE RIVER
FLOOD OF RECORD. MOVING INTO THE MICHIGAMME RIVER BASIN, SOME
BANKFULL CONDITIONS TO MINOR RIVER FLOODING LOOKS POSSIBLE AT
BANGSTON BRIDGE AND WITCH LAKE LATE THIS WEEK AS THE SNOWMELT IN THE
BASIN PROGRESSIVELY MELTS AND INCREASES FLOWS WITH TIME. AS FOR THE
FORD RIVER, WE ARE CURRENTLY FLIRTING WITH BANKFULL CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND COULD GO OVER TONIGHT GIVEN THE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
(SOME POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES). MOVING OVER TO THE ESCANABA
RIVER, BANKFULL TO MINOR RIVER FLOOD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE BRANCH AT HUMBOLDT AND THE EASTERN BRANCH AT GWINN. GIVEN
THE RECENT CALL WITH ONE OF THE DAM OPERATORS IN ESCANABA ABOUT THE
HIGH FLOWS, WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SNOWMELT IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT COULD HELP TO PUSH-
UP CFS TO HAZARDOUS LEVELS. AS FOR THE STURGEON RIVER (DELTA COUNTY)
AT NAHMA JUNCTION, THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT HAS CAUSED
RIVER LEVELS TO EXCEED BANKFULL; I'D BE SHOCKED IF THE RIVER DOESN'T
GO INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE SHORTLY AS EVEN THE HEFS SHOWS THE RIVER
AT ABOUT 100% FOR GETTING INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. AS FOR THE
MANISTIQUE RIVER, THE INCREASING SNOWMELT AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RECENTLY (AND POTENTIALLY TONIGHT) COULD BRING ABOVE BANKFULL RIVER
LEVELS, POTENTIALLY CAUSING PONDING OF WATER AND INUNDATION IN LOW-
LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER TUESDAY AND BEYOND; A FLOOD ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS RIVER'S AREA OF INFLUENCE IN THE FUTURE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-
084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...77
MARINE...LC
HYDROLOGY...
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