483
FXUS63 KMQT 150522
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
122 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND WEAK, MOIST FLOW
REMAINS IN PLACE.
- THE THREAT FOR FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO
SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE U.P., ENDING WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE FAR WEST AND THURSDAY NIGHT ELSEWHERE.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED SNOWMELT,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THE MAIN
CONTRIBUTOR FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE SNOWMELT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL, THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE FOR
1" OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS OVER THE U.P.
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BRINGING FOG INTO THE KEWEENAW. WINDS HAD TURNED
SOUTHERLY BRINGING WARMER, MOIST AIR NORTHWARDS INTO NORTHERN WI,
APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN U.P. BETWEEN THE MESS OF LOW, MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THERE WERE A FEW BREAKS STARTING AND WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE MI/WI STATE LINE TO SEE SOME
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
ACROSS THE U.P. BUT STILL EXPECTING THE SOUTH AND WEST TO RISE INTO
THE 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE WARMEST AIR WAS OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI WHERE A WARM FRONT WAS STALLED. FOG AND
DRIZZLE THIS MORNING HAD DIMINISHED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
KEWEENAW. RIVERS WERE STILL SLOWLY RISING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.P. BUT A TREND DOWNWARDS WAS STARTING IN THE FAR WEST
WHERE MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK HAS ERODED. THOUGH MOST OF THE SNOWPACK
WAS ALSO GONE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS CONTINUED TO CAUSE FLOODING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE U.P.
REMAINING ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO
THE WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS LEADING TO INCREASED SNOWMELT, WITH POTENTIAL
FLOODING OF RIVER, SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS AND LOW LYING AREAS. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW EXPECT THAT FOG, DENSE AT
TIMES, WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRIZZLE AS THE
SATURATED LAYER REACHES UPWARDS OF 3 KFT. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA AND A FEW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
FAR SOUTH, COULD GET KICKED OFF AS A SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH IN WI SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FORM.
WEDNESDAY WILL START OUT FOGGY WITH DRIZZLE BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY, WE COULD EVEN SEE A RARE APPEARANCE OF THE
SUN OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH LIKE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE U.P, WITH LOW 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WARMER STRETCH IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY, BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS SPRING,
REACHING INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEST (90% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
OVER 70). THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ACCELERATE THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
FURTHER WITH CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS.
MORE UNCERTAINLY EXISTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ALONG OR NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLOWER SOLUTIONS KEEP WARMER
AIR IN THE U.P. WELL INTO SATURDAY WHILE FASTER SOLUTIONS WOULD
BRING A FRONT THROUGH AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS A WET SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN U.P. NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR 2" OR MORE OF WET SNOW IN THE WEST ARE AROUND 20-40% SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WELL INTO THE
MORNING AS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG SETS UP OVER THE REGION DUE TO
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK WINDS. CONDTIONS LIFT TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
LIGHT, STABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY THE FOG WILL ERODE ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE, 30% CHANCE FOR GALES OVER THE EASTERN LAKE.
THIS LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A COLD FRONT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWESTERLY GALES (AROUND 50% CHANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY).
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE THE SNOWPACK HAD ERODED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO OVER A FOOT OF SWE REMAINED, GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND ACCELERATE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE U.P. ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE, MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH BUT HEAVIER
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. NBM HAS A 10-30% CHANCE FOR
AN INCH OF MORE OF RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE MELT OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW.
FLOODING IN THE WAKE OF SNOWMELT AND MULTIPLE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS
CONTINUED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.P. TODAY. THOUGH THE SNOWPACK IS
MOSTLY GONE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL; SWAMPS, CREEKS, LOW LYING AREAS
AND RIVERS REMAIN FULL/HIGH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD EXACERBATE THE ONGOING
FLOODING THOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR THE NORTH AND EAST SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOODING THREAT THOUGH THE WEEK WITH THE ANALYSIS AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING OVER A FOOT OF SWE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
RIVERS IN THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WERE BEGINNING TO FALL AND ANTICIPATE
THAT THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WILL BE EXTENDING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME
WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS, ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003>007-
010>014-084-085.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
FOR LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ248-250.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...NL
HYDROLOGY...
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