067
FXUS63 KMQT 151515
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1115 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE THREAT FOR FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO
SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN UP
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REACH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT TOTALS BELOW A
QUARTER INCH.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EARLY MORNING. WIDESPREAD TOTALS UP
TO HALF AN INCH ARE BECOMING LIKELY, BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A 10- 20% CHANCE FOR TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
EARL THIS MORNING, A WARM FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL LP. FORCING ALONG IT HAS LEAD TO MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS WI AND THE LP, BUT WE REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
EXCITEMENT, UP HERE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH PLENTY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COURTESY OF OUR MELTING SNOWPACK AND A SHARP
INVERSION, WIDESPREAD FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UP. THIS IS DENSE
AT TIMES, WITH SEVERAL ASOS SITES THROUGHOUT THE AREA REPORTING
VISIBILITY WELL BELOW A MILE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED CHANCE OF
THIS MIXING OUT EVEN THROUGH SUNRISE, SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL 14Z.
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS, ONCE OUR FOG MIXES OUT, WE SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WESTERN UP MUCH LIKE TODAY
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE U.P, WITH LOW 40S IN THE
FAR NORTH TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH, CLOSER IN PROXIMITY TO THE WARM
FRONT. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S, WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED SNOWMELT WHICH IN TURN CONTINUES TO POSE A THREAT FOR
FLOODING O RIVERS, SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS. FLOOD
HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, AND THOUGH GUIDANCE INCREASINGLY
LIMITS POPS TO OUR SOUTH, WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO THE UP,
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL WILL NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH RAIN TOTALS OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH, WITH ANY ISOLATED STORMS DROPPING HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A WARMER STRETCH IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A DEEP
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY, BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS SPRING,
REACHING INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEST (90% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
OVER 70). THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ACCELERATE THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
FURTHER WITH CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS.
MORE UNCERTAINLY EXISTS FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST ALONG OR NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SLOWER SOLUTIONS KEEP WARMER
AIR IN THE U.P. WELL INTO SATURDAY WHILE FASTER SOLUTIONS WOULD
BRING A FRONT THROUGH AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS A WET SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN U.P. NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR 2" OR MORE OF WET SNOW IN THE WEST ARE AROUND 20-40% SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR FOG IS NOTED ON AREA WEBCAMS AND ASOS STATIONS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PREVIOUS NIGHT,
THINKING FOG WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, FIRST AT IWD WITH CMX AND SAW CATCHING UP. LIGHT N
TO NW WINDS MAY CAUSE UPSLOPE FOG AND LOW CIGS TO LINGER LONGER AT
CMX/SAW. MVFR/VFR CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT WINDS ONCE FOG LIFTS. WIDESPREAD FOG IS ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
LIGHT, STABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. DENSE FOG REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THIS MORING, SLOWLY MIXING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXPANDING AGAIN TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE, 30% CHANCE FOR GALES OVER THE EASTERN LAKE.
THIS LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A COLD FRONT
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWESTERLY GALES (AROUND 50% CHANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY).
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE THE SNOWPACK HAD ERODED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO OVER A FOOT OF SWE REMAINED, GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND ACCELERATE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE U.P. ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT
AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH BUT HEAVIER RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. NBM HAS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF
MORE OF RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT. COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE MELT OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW.
FLOODING IN THE WAKE OF SNOWMELT AND MULTIPLE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS
CONTINUED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.P. TUESDAY. THOUGH THE SNOWPACK
IS MOSTLY GONE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL; SWAMPS, CREEKS, LOW LYING AREAS
AND RIVERS REMAIN FULL/HIGH AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THIS COULD EXACERBATE THE ONGOING FLOODING
THOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
FOR THE NORTH AND EAST SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
THE FLOODING THREAT THOUGH THE WEEK WITH THE ANALYSIS AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING OVER A FOOT OF SWE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
RIVERS IN THE FAR WESTERN U.P. WERE BEGINNING TO FALL AND ANTICIPATE
THAT THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THIS MORNING.
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME
WITH FUTURE UPDATES AS EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW
POINTS, ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003>007-
010>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
LSZ240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...LC/NL
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...LC/NL
HYDROLOGY...
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