072
FXUS63 KMQT 152327
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
727 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING THROUGH 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR THE MQT COUNTY
WARNING AREA.
- THE THREAT FOR FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO
SNOWMELT AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN UP
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EARLY MORNING. WIDESPREAD TOTALS
OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH UP TO 30%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING AN INCH, BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH
HALF.
- BECOMING MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL SLOW SNOWMELT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
ANOMALOUS MIDLEVEL RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS, WHILE A DEEP, COMPACT TROUGH IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT LOWER LEVELS, A DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY RUNS FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR OMAHA TO ANOTHER LOW IN
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVENING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COULD BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OVERNIGHT, WITH NO
IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR IS RESULTING IN ONSHORE FLOW, KEEPING NORTHERN AREAS
COOL. MEANWHILE, SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST, WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO SPIKE TO 55-60F. TONIGHT,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOG REDEVELOPS, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN AREAS
WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH 10 AM
EDT THURSDAY FOR THE MQT COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THURSDAY, THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE IN EARLIER LOW CLOUDS CLEARING
IN ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF, WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN. AS
THE AIRMASS REMAINS ANOMALOUSLY WARM (850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C OR +1
TO +2 SIGMA), UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR AND
DEEPER MIXING HAPPENS, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF TEMPS IN THE 70S AND A
LOW CHANCE OF APPROACHING 80 IN SOME SPOTS. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST,
CLOUDS HANGING ON LONGER AND POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE LIKELY
REMAINING BELOW 50F.
FRIDAY, RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF THE PAC NW TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THINGS
DRY UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES AND CROSSES THE UP FROM WEST TO EAST
ROUGHLY 00-06Z SAT. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST
HALF, WHILE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN
THE EAST HALF. GFS/NAM INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPROACHING
1000 J/KG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS
RESULTING IN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WITH PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE, BUT THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT QPF TO 0.25-0.75" IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
WOULD PROLONG RAINFALL A BIT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGHER PRECIP
AMOUNTS (20-30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING AN INCH IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS).
A SHARPLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
ALTHOUGH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW ALL SITES ARE HOLDING VFR, THIS
QUICKLY DETERIORATES THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIFR/VLIFR TONIGHT. WARM
AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY THE SNOWMELT IS SUPPLYING
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH CALM CONDITIONS, AREAS OF DENSE FOG
RETURN. THERE IS AT LEAST AN 80% CHANCE OF REACHING AIRPORT MINIMUM
VIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. VFR RETURNS AT IWD FIRST AROUND
MID MORNING, THEN EARLY AFTERNOON AT CMX/SAW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
LIGHT, STABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES OVER
THE EASTERN LAKE FRIDAY EVENING. WITH STABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED ON HIGH OBSERVING PLATFORMS. THIS LOW
WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWESTERLY GALES (AROUND 50% CHANCE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY).
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE THE SNOWPACK HAD ERODED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO OVER A FOOT OF SWE REMAINED, GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND ACCELERATE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE U.P. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH 0.25-0.75 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS, AND A 20-30% OF
EXCEEDING AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN UP. COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE MELT OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW.
WATERS REMAIN HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN UP WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTED TO FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND SOME RIVERS.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN UP DUE TO
CONTINUED SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN UP, AND
MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ001-003>007-
010>014-084-085.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR
LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
DISCUSSION...THOMPSON
AVIATION...77
MARINE...LC/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...
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