356
FXUS63 KMQT 161736
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
136 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE THREAT FOR FLOODING CONTINUES DUE TO SNOWMELT. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN UP
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EARLY MORNING. WIDESPREAD TOTALS
OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH UP TO 30%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING AN INCH, BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH
HALF.
- SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
- BECOMING MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL SLOW SNOWMELT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
EARLY MORNING RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS ANOMALOUS MIDLEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND A DEEP, COMPACT TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS RIPPLING THROUGH MN AND WI. AT LOWER LEVELS, A BROAD
SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF IT INTO THE CENTRAL LP. CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS REMAINED WELL TO OUR SOUTH, BUT AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR US TO GET
GRAZED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT
REMAINS OUR POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS
PLENTY OF EITHER FOG OR LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UP - AND GROUND TRUTH IS STARTING TO CATCH UP WITH ASOS SITES
STARTING TO DROP ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE UP. WHILE THE WESTERN
UP HAS YET TO SEE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS SPELLS OUT A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO
DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE UP.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A QUIET DAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SOON AFTER SUNRISE. THAT
SAID, ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP SHOULD KEEP
IN CLOUD COVER FOR LONGER THERE. AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS ANOMALOUSLY
WARM (850 MB TEMPS AROUND 10C OR +1 TO +2 SIGMA), UNSEASONABLE
WARMTH WILL OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS CLEAR AND DEEPER MIXING HAPPENS, WITH
A HIGH CHANCE OF TEMPS IN THE 70S AND A LOW CHANCE OF APPROACHING 80
IN SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR-WESTERN UP. MEANWHILE IN THE EAST,
CLOUDS HANGING ON LONGER AND POTENTIAL FOR ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
THINGS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE LIKELY
REMAINING BELOW 50F.
FRIDAY, RIDGING BUILDS AHEAD OF THE PAC NW TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THINGS
DRY UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES AND CROSSES THE UP FROM WEST TO EAST
ROUGHLY 00-06Z SAT. ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST
HALF, WHILE IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN
THE EAST HALF. GFS/NAM INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY APPROACHING
1000 J/KG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS
RESULTING IN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WITH PWATS OF 1-1.25 INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE, BUT THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT QPF TO 0.25-0.75" IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
WOULD PROLONG RAINFALL A BIT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN HIGHER PRECIP
AMOUNTS (20-30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING AN INCH IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS).
A SHARPLY COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY MORNING CHANGES OVER TO SNOW, THOUGH IMPACTFUL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BY SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES
ALOFT TURN COOL ENOUGH THAT WE MAY JUST BE ABLE TO PICK UP ON SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW (NOTE IN SOUNDINGS A STEEPENING INVERSION HEIGHT
AND A SATURATED DGZ). HOWEVER, DRY AIR ABOVE AND BELOW THE DGZ PROVE
A LIMITING FACTOR IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WHICH REMAIN WELL BELOW AN
INCH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TREND WARMER AGAIN INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH A MAINLY DRY PERIOD AHEAD COURTESY OF RIDGING OVER
THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WITH THE MORNING FOG DEPARTED FROM THE TERMINALS, VFR AND SKC
CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, GENERALLY UNDER 5 KT WITH
THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 10 KT.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL ROUND OF FOG
AS WELL AS LLWS EXISTS. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A CONTRAST OF
WINDS FROM 10-15 KT AT THE SURFACE SOUTH TO AROUND 45 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 2KFT, PARTICULARLY AT CMX AND IWD. AT THE SURFACE,
PARTICULARLY AT SAW AND CMX, TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITH DEWPOINTS ABOVE FREEZING ON A RIPE SNOWPACK ARE
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG FORMATION IN SPITE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WINDS. CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF ANY FOG AT CMX ARE UP TO 60% TONIGHT
WITH CHANCES OF 1SM OR LESS FOG AT UP TO 30%. AT SAW, THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE 75+% AND UP TO 50% RESPECTIVELY, THOUGH THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AT BOTH SITES ABOUT THE ONSET AND
CESSATION OF FOG, SO FOR NOW, MOSTLY JUST TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG UNTIL
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/INTENSITY DETAILS CAN EMERGE.
REGARDLESS, IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
LIGHT, STABLE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE FOR BRIEF GALES OVER
THE EASTERN LAKE FRIDAY EVENING. WITH STABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW, THE
HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED ON HIGH OBSERVING PLATFORMS. THIS LOW
WILL PUSH THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWESTERLY GALES (AROUND 50% CHANCE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY). NW WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY, THEN
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE LAKE WILL BRIEFLY BE BELOW 20KTS
EARLY MONDAY WHILE SHIFTING OVER TO THE SOUTH. WINDS BECOME ELEVATED
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
ONTARIO.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE THE SNOWPACK HAD ERODED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND FAR WESTERN U.P. OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SEVERAL INCHES
TO OVER A FOOT OF SWE REMAINED, GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND ACCELERATE LATE IN THE
WEEK AS A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE U.P. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH 0.25-0.75 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS, AND A 20-30% OF
EXCEEDING AN INCH IN THE SOUTHERN UP. COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE MELT OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW.
WATERS REMAIN HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN UP WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTED TO FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND SOME RIVERS.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN UP DUE TO
CONTINUED SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN UP, AND
MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ001-003>007-010>014-
084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ245>251-
265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC/THOMPSON
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...LC/THOMPSON
HYDROLOGY...
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