196
FXUS63 KMQT 161930
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE THREAT FOR FLOODING CONTINUES DUE TO SNOWMELT. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN UP
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY EARLY MORNING. WIDESPREAD TOTALS
OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
- BECOMING MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL SLOW SNOWMELT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
THIS AFTERNOON GOES SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN U.S WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE MIDWEST. A SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE MENOMINEE AREA
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE IT WAS DRY TODAY AND FOG HAD DISSIPATED
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE. UNDER THOSE SUNNY
SKIES IT HAD WARMED NICELY, PUSHING INTO THE LOW 70S IN THE WEST. IT
WAS A BIT COOLER, 50S AND 60S IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST BUT MUCH
COOLER 30S AND 40S NEAR THE LAKESHORES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING RELATIVELY WARM, ONLY COOLING INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S IN
THE WEST AND 30S OVER THE EAST AND KEWEENAW. SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.P. BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER AS TO IF
THE FOG WILL BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY.
A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP BRING WARMER AND GULF MOISTURE NORTH
INTO THE U.P. WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S WEST AND 60S EAST. IT
WILL BE COOLER, 40S, DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
COMING UP THE AXIS OF THE LAKE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND A LOW LEVEL JET WITH STRENGTHEN.
THESE WILL PROVIDE A MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P, ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE WI/MI STATE LINE WHERE SPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM BUT MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ONGOING FLOOD RISK. WILL BE EXTENDING
THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN
U.P. WHILE SNOWPACK IS MOSTLY GONE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.P. WATER
LEVELS REMAIN HIGH AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CAUSE FURTHER FLOODING ISSUES. FOR THE NORTH AND EAST WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE
SNOWMELT, THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE
FLOOD RISK.
FOR SATURDAY LIGHT TRAILING SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
CHANGE TO THE WINTERY PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING. THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE OUTRUNNING THE 850-700MB COOLING WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY NON-IMPACTFUL, WITH ANY LIGHT GLAZE LIMITED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES. THEREAFTER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING.
IT WILL FEEL CHILLY AFTER A FEW WARM DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH AND 40S SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS
SHOULD HELP SLOW THE SNOWMELT A BIT BEFORE WE WARM UP NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING, BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE 50S CENTRAL
AND EAST AND UP INTO THE LOW 60S WEST. IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE
SHORELINES AS THE GREAT LAKES REMAIN FAIRLY FRIGID.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WITH THE MORNING FOG DEPARTED FROM THE TERMINALS, VFR AND SKC
CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, GENERALLY UNDER 5 KT WITH
THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 10 KT.
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL ROUND OF FOG
AS WELL AS LLWS EXISTS. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING A CONTRAST OF
WINDS FROM 10-15 KT AT THE SURFACE SOUTH TO AROUND 45 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 2KFT, PARTICULARLY AT CMX AND IWD. AT THE SURFACE,
PARTICULARLY AT SAW AND CMX, TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITH DEWPOINTS ABOVE FREEZING ON A RIPE SNOWPACK ARE
GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG FORMATION IN SPITE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WINDS. CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF ANY FOG AT CMX ARE UP TO 60% TONIGHT
WITH CHANCES OF 1SM OR LESS FOG AT UP TO 30%. AT SAW, THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE 75+% AND UP TO 50% RESPECTIVELY, THOUGH THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AT BOTH SITES ABOUT THE ONSET AND
CESSATION OF FOG, SO FOR NOW, MOSTLY JUST TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG UNTIL
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/INTENSITY DETAILS CAN EMERGE.
REGARDLESS, IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 20KT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES
SHAPE OUT WEST AND APPROACHES THE REGION. FOR THE WESTERN ARM OF THE
LAKE WINDS WILL TAKE MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. FOG HAD
MAINLY DISSIPATED EXCEPT OVER THE FAR EAST, WHERE SATELLITE SHOWED
SOME LOW STRATUS OR FOG. ANTICIPATING CANCELING THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE COVERAGE AND REDEVELOPMENT OF
FOG OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30KT DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GALES POSSIBLE (30-50%) SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE LAKE. WINDS FALL
BELOW 20KT SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
NOHRSC ANALYSIS SHOWED SNOWPACK REMAINED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE U.P. WERE SEVERAL INCHES TO OVER A FOOT OF SWE REMAINED,
GREATEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FRIDAY AS A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE U.P. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH 0.25-0.75 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE MELT OF ANY REMAINING SNOW.
WATERS REMAIN HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN UP WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND
SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTED TO FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AND SOME RIVERS.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN U.P. DUE TO
CONTINUED SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN U.P. THIS
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR MIZ001-
003>007-010>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ245>251-
265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...NL
HYDROLOGY...NL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page