088
FXUS63 KMQT 060504
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
104 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
GOES-EAST DAY CLOUD PHASE RGB IMAGERY SHOWS A BROKEN STRATOCU DECK
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED DEEPER STREAKS OF CLOUDS WHERE SOME
OVERPERFORMING LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DELIVER SOME
SURPRISING BURSTS OF SNOWFALL, ICE PELLETS, AND RAIN. THESE SHOWERS
ARE PREVAILING AGAINST INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE AND A TREND OF
DECREASING 500MB VORTICITY AS THE MAIN CUTOFF LOW LIFTS INTO JAMES
BAY AND THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN ROCKIES HAS BEEN ABLE TO
BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, IN ADDITION
TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB. THE CULPRIT SEEMS TO BE A WEAK 500MB
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE COUPLED WITH A COMPACT THERMAL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
SPC MESOANALYSIS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR HAS ALSO ALLOWED FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7 C ARE COMPARED TO THE
LAKE SURFACE WHICH IS AROUND 4 C.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOCALIZED FORCING
AMONGST POOR CONDITIONS ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
OFF-AGAIN, ON-AGAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE, THOUGH IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS CHANCES OF EVEN 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
ARE ONLY IN EXCESS OF 10% FOR THE MOUNT ARVON VICINITY AND THE
PAINESDALE AREA AND CHANCES FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OF TOTAL PRECIP
ACCUMULATION IS ONLY ABOVE 15% FOR THE US-2 CORRIDOR IN FAR-EASTERN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION, SOME
ELEVATED GUSTS ALOFT ARE BEING BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE, WITH OBSERVED
GUSTS STILL IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE STILL ONGOING FOR THE KEWEENAW
AND AROUND 20-25 MPH ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE COOLER AIR AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP RHS FROM
FALLING TOO FAR, THOUGH SOME PORTIONS OF MENOMINEE COUNTY WILL
BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS TO HEAT UP TO THE MID 50S AND DROP RHS TO NEAR OR
BELOW 30%. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT AROUND FREEZING AT THE GREAT
LAKES LAKESHORES AND IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE INTERIOR.
A SIMILAR RIPPLE IN THE 500MB FLOW WILL CAUSE SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TOMORROW AS TODAY, WITH CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ONLY RARELY
EXCEEDING 10-20% FOR ANY GIVEN HOUR AT A GIVEN POINT, BUT CHANCES OF
AT LEAST SOME WEAK PRECIP (AKA SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES) ARE MORE
CONSISTENTLY AROUND 30-50%. HIGHS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH
WINDS DECREASING SOMEWHAT TO AROUND 10-15 MPH, PERHAPS A LITTLE
HIGHER FOR THE KEWEENAW.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND BEYOND, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE, WITH THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH REFUSING TO BUDGE EXCEPT
TO WOBBLE SOME AND SEND PERIODIC WEAK SHORTWAVES AND DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE 500MB HEIGHT IN THE BOTTOM 5-10
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY AND SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL, THOUGH THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC SHOWS SATURDAY AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 50 FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORES. SHOULD THE PATTERN HOLD MUCH LIKE TODAY, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH NIL AS CLOUD COVER AND THE OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SHOWER HELP TEMPER RHS AND THE LACK OF NEARBY SYNOPTIC SURFACE
PRESSURE FEATURES KEEPS WIND GUSTS LOW, AS WELL AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, IF A GIVEN
DAY IS MORE CLEAR THAN ANOTHER, RHS COULD FALL TO THE 20S PERCENT
RANGE IN THE INTERIOR WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY,
ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE REALIZED AT SAW THIS
AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE W/NW (AND N OVER SAW) TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
COLD ADVECTION IS PUSHING GUSTY WEST WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE,
WITH WEST WIND GUSTS AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OF 25-30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW PRESSURE IN
JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DEPART, THE GRADIENT DRIVING THE
WIND DECREASES AND GUSTS FALL BELOW 20 KT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE MAJOR
SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAINING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES,
THE CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KT ARE LESS THAN 20% FOR THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...NL/TAP
MARINE...GS
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