050
FXUS63 KMQT 061949
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNTIL
THE END OF THIS WEEK. SOME DIURNAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
SYNOPTIC SETUP ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON HAS UPPER MICHIGAN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF RISING SURFACE PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST. AND, STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
NONETHELESS, WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A HUDSON BAY LOW HAVE
PERSISTENTLY BEEN GENERATING SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE U.P.
THE LAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TOMORROW AND
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. WITH MUCH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THOUGH,
DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGING, ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND.
ALONG WITH THIS PATTERN COMES THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW. CURRENTLY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE STRUGGLING TO EVEN REACH
THE MID 40S WITH GROUND-BASED OBS REPORTING WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S/LOW
40S. THE OUTLIER AT THIS TIME IS MENOMINEE COMING IN AT 46 DEGREES.
AND, WITH SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, WARMER NEAR THE LAKESHORES (LOW TO MID 30S).
BY FRIDAY, THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT A LITTLE AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE U.P. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S THROUGH
SATURDAY EXCEPT THE KEWEENAW AND NORTH-CENTRAL, WHICH WILL SEE LOW
TO MID 50S. WITH THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPERATURES, FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WHEN
MIN RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 25-30% RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR. LIGHT WINDS, THOUGH, SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY IMPACTS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY, RAIN SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE UP TO 30-40%. BUT,
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN OVER THE U.P. AS THE
CURRENT PACIFIC NORTHWEST HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK SHIFTS EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY DIP ON SUNDAY, BUT THEN SLOWLY REBOUND
NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S
BY MID-WEEK. AND, AS A FEW SHORTWAVES RETURN LATE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD, A TREND TOWARD WETTER CONDITIONS ENTERS THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS YIELDING LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE UP, BUT SAW IS THE ONLY ONE LIKELY
TO OBSERVE ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, NO CATEGORY CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED AND ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. THIS WAVE COULD
RESULT IN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT SAW
AS WELL THEN WHAT IS REFLECTED IN THE TAF, BUT MODEL AGREEMENT IS ON
THE LOW SIDE. OTHERWISE EXPECT W TO NW WINDS TO BECOME CALM TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST KEEPS THE WEATHER
QUIET OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ONLY IMPACTFUL WEATER
OF NOTE WILL BE A BURST OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY THAT WILL
GENERATE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE LAKE. FURTHER OUT, LIGHT WINDS AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL RETURN
MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDUD
AVIATION...77
MARINE...TDUD
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