614
FXUS63 KMQT 071100
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
700 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
UNTIL THE END OF THIS WEEK. SOME DIURNAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS RETURN BY SATURDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY GET
UP TO A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
- MORE COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS OVER US FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA TODAY,
EXPECT ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION TO BRING SOME LIGHT DIURNAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE U.P.
ONCE AGAIN. THUS, WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY, EXPECT TODAY TO PRETTY
MUCH BE A RINSE-AND-REPEAT OF YESTERDAY: DRY AIR AT THE SFC FROM THE
SFC RIDGING, COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY IS THAT THE SNOWFALL CHANCES
ARE LOWER DURING THE DAYTIME, WHEREAS THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHER THANKS TO THE EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WHILE WE
COULD SEE A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. THIS EVENING (AS
SEEN IN THE RAP, HRRR, AND NAMNEST GUIDANCES), THINKING CHANCES OF
THIS HAPPENING ARE AROUND 30% AS THE BEST AMOUNT OF DIURNAL CAPE
WILL BE PAST BY THIS POINT. HOWEVER, IF ANY SNOWFALL DOES FALL TODAY
AND THIS EVENING, EXPECT EVEN THAT TO MELT AT THE SFC AS THE GROUND
IS NOW WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE U.P.
WE START TO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDES A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA
OVER US LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO, EXPECT THE
WARMER WEATHER AND SUNNIER SKIES TO ALLOW FOR EVEN DEEPER MIXING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, ALLOWING RHS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20
PERCENTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE U.P. BY THE AFTERNOON;
WHILE THE CHANCE IS LOW, SOME OF THE DRIEST SPOTS COULD SNEAK INTO
THE UPPER TEEN PERCENTS FOR RHS. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO GETTING
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE U.P., WE MAY FLIRT WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THAT BEING SAID, EVEN DESPITE THE
ROBUST MIXING, WINDS AT THE SFC MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING
ABOVE 20 MPH AS THERE WILL BE NO LLJ TO HELP CREATE WINDY
CONDITIONS. WITH SOMEWHAT WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
(MAYBE SOUTHERLY ALONG LAKE MI) ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS ONLY JUST
GETTING ABOVE 20 MPH AT SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS, THINKING
THAT WE WILL AVOID ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE U.P.,
BUT ONLY JUST.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. WHILE DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND POTENTIALLY EVEN COVERAGE ACROSS THE U.P., THE NBM BRINGS AROUND
A 10 TO 20% CHANCE FOR OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID ACROSS THE
U.P. WITH THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE, AND SOME ISOLATED SPOTS MAY GET
UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO.
MOVING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DIGS DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BACK ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS RHS DROPPING INTO THE 20 PERCENTS IN
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. THANKFULLY, WITH THE
RIDGING KEEPING THE WINDS LIGHT, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
NOT PROJECTED AT THIS TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
REST OF NEXT WEEK, THE U.P. LOOKS TO BE SUBJECT TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
POTENTIALLY GIVES WAY TO A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE OR TWO; HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION (IF ANY) WE GET FROM THE CLIPPER(S) WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW(S).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
WEAK IMPULSE POTENTIALLY BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES GENERALLY
BEING AROUND 20% OR LESS OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY (EXCEPT FOR SAW
THIS EVENING WHEN CHANCES INCREASE TO 30%), PRECIPITATION MENTIONS
WERE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF AS THEY WOULD NOT IMPACT THE FLIGHT
CATEGORY. OVERALL, EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT W TO NW WINDS TODAY, SAVE FOR
THE LAKE BREEZE POTENTIALLY MOVING OVER SAW LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TURNING THINGS N/NE'RLY OVER THERE. IN ADDITION, CMX MAY BE GUSTING
TO 20 KTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE DAYLIGHT TODAY. ONCE THE SUN
SETS, EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP AND TO TURN MORE SW'RLY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK AS THE COOLER CANADIAN AIR SLOWLY GIVES WAY TO WARMER AIR FROM
WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, ONCE A COLD FRONT DESCENDS OVER THE LAKE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO PICKUP FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO SUNDAY COULD INCREASE THE WINDS BY A COUPLE OF KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE INCOMING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK,
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND TO REMAIN THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TAP
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