878
FXUS63 KMQT 072332
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
732 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BENIGN WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
UNTIL THE END OF THIS WEEK. SOME DIURNAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS RETURN BY SATURDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY GET
UP TO A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
- MORE COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS OVER US FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO
PRESENT ITSELF TODAY AS GOES-EAST DAY CLOUD PHASE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOSTLY LOW CUMULUS WITH A FEW STREAKS OF DEEPER CLOUDS WHERE LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING, WITH BOTH RAIN AND SNOW PTYPES OBSERVED. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEBULOUS WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURES ARE OVER
LABRADOR AND SASKATCHEWAN. ALOFT, RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CONTINUED
PATTERN OF A 500MB DEEP TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE,
RIDGING IS OVER THE WEST COAST AND JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WHILE A
CLOSED LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS HEAVILY BLOCKED AND LOW WAVENUMBER
PATTERN WILL PROGRESS SOME BY MID NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. IN
THE MEANTIME, THE WEATHER PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS AS MINOR WAVELENGTHS
CONTINUE TO WOBBLE ABOUT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE HREF SHOWS DIURNAL HEATING AND THE
NEAREST UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING TO ALLOW FOR A REINVIGORATION OF
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE EASTERN THIRD THIS
EVENING. HREF PROBS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM
FROM MANISTIQUE TO NEWBERRY BY 00Z TONIGHT ARE 50-70%. ULTIMATELY,
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AS NO THUNDER IS FORECAST. CHANCES
OF PRECIP FALL BELOW 15% IN THE WAKE OF THE MINOR SHORTWAVE AROUND
05Z, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SUB-FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR AND
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AT THE SHORELINES OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES UNINTERRUPTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS YET ANOTHER DAY OF WEAKLY FORCED OFF AND ON AGAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUES, WITH CAMS SHOWING SHOWERS BUT SPREAD OUT ON THE COVERAGE
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS. A SLIGHTLY WARMER BACKGROUND WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM AS WELL AS MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EARLY WILL HELP BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE UP
WITH HIGHS UP TO THE MID 50S FOR MOST (THOUGH THE NORMAL HIGH IS
AROUND 60, SO STILL A TOUGH BELOW NORMAL). IF CLEAR SKIES CAN
PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY, ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND EFFICIENT MIXING
CAN OCCUR TO BRING WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AND DROP RHS INTO THE 20S
TO TEENS PERCENT, WHICH WOULD BE CAUSE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES TECHNICALLY BEING TOO COOL, BUT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME, THE "ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER" SOLUTION IS ONLY A WORST-CASE CONSIDERATION FOR NOW, WITH A
MORE LIKELY SOLUTION BEING A REPEAT OF CONDITIONS FROM THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.
SATURDAY, A CLUSTER OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW
FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER OF THESE SUCH
SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH. IT IS NOT A GIVEN
THAT IT WILL OCCUR, BUT IF IT DOES, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
(MAYBE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN COOL SPOTS) WILL OCCUR. CURRENT POP
FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS AROUND 30-50%.
BY SUNDAY, THE LREF SHOWS SOME ACTUAL PROGRESS IN THE 500MB PATTERN,
WITH RIDGING MOVING INTO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH THE TROUGH
PUSHING INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, THOUGH THE NBM STILL CARRIES SOME 15-30% POPS ON SUNDAY IN
CASE ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH. DESPITE CALMING CONDITIONS,
THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MOSTLY NORTHERLY, SO NBM HIGHS SUNDAY ARE
STILL 50 +/- 5.
WITH THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE PATTERN ALOFT, THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK SEES A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. WITH THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGHING, A
GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IS OBSERVED IN THE NBM HIGHS NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME 70S IN THE WEST HALF BY THURSDAY. THE EARLIEST ARRIVAL
TIME OF THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY, THOUGH THERE
ARE GEFS ENSEMBLE LOW CENTERS IN THE AREA ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, INDICATING THAT ENSEMBLES DON'T HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON
THE WINDOW OF PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WILL IMPACT SAW OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH THESE
SHOWERS, OUTFLOW FROM THE SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN A SHARP CHANGE TO
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. THEREAFTER WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (<20%) CHANCE OF FOG AT KSAW TONIGHT, BUT NO MENTION IS MADE
IN THE TAF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT THU MAY 7 2026
WITH MAJOR PRESSURE SYSTEMS STAYING AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 20 KT UNTIL AT
LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND, THERE IS A ~50%
CHANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE LAKE THAT CAN DRIVE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS
FALL BELOW 20 KT SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A BRIEF 30-50% CHANCE OF 20-25
KT GUSTS SUNDAY EVENING IN THE EAST. WINDS REMAIN SUB-20 KT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...RE/77/NL
MARINE...GS
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