613
FXUS63 KMQT 081058
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
658 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT WARMER AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS HIGHS GET INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S AND RHS DROP INTO AT LEAST THE 20 PERCENTS IN THE
INTERIOR AREAS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE SEEN BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN SHOWERS POTENTIALLY RETURN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
- MORE COOL AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS OVER US FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WITH SOME SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS HAVING LEFT THE U.P. FINALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING TO OUR EAST, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THIS
MORNING AS THE PEAK OF THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO EXIT
THE AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
THE U.P., SUCH AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN MARQUETTE COUNTY (K.I.
SAWYER, AND THE AREA UP THE HILL WEST OF MARQUETTE) WHERE SOME
FREEZING FOG IS BEING REALIZED. THEREFORE, WATCH OUT FOR ICY/SLICK
SPOTS WHEN DRIVING THIS MORNING, AND BE SURE TO HAVE YOUR LOW-BEAM
HEADLIGHTS ON TO HELP SEE AS WELL AS HELPING THE OTHER DRIVERS
LOCATE YOUR CAR IN THE FOG. THE FREEZING FOG WILL PROBABLY GO AWAY
NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
LOOKING AT THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT PLEASANT WEATHER AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THINKING THE
VERY DRY AIR WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP US
DRY AS ANY ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MORE THAN LIKELY EVAPORATE
MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE PRECIPITATION HEADED TOWARDS THE SFC, AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY 'WESTERN U.S'-TYPE SOUNDING: AN INVERTED-
V BETWEEN THE SFC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY UP TO
AROUND 8 TO 10 KFT. WHILE THIS VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
(MOSTLY) PREVENT PRECIPITATION FROM HITTING THE GROUND, IT WILL ALSO
CREATE STRONG MIXING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. THUS, EXPECT RHS
TODAY TO DROP QUICKLY, REACHING THE 20 PERCENTS BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR UPPER PENINSULA; WITH THE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ROBUST MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE DRIER SPOTS ACHIEVE MIN RHS IN
THE UPPER TEEN PERCENTS. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER,
WINDS AT THE SFC ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT GUSTY AS THERE IS
NO LLJ TO BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SFC. INSTEAD, GENERALLY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER INFREQUENT/ERRATIC
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO THE STRONG
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. THE HIGHEST GUSTS MAY BE SEEN
ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON, AS THE MARINE LAYERS COULD ACT AS 'MINI COLD FRONTS' AND
REALLY SIPHON THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC WITH GREAT
EFFICIENCY; THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BE A CONCERN NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE OVER THE WEST, AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WHERE
CONVERGENCE OF THE LAKE BREEZES COULD OCCUR (MARQUETTE COUNTY
EASTWARD). OVERALL, WHILE UNCERTAINTY IS STILL SOMEWHAT HIGH AT THIS
TIME, WE MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE U.P.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN ALL THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WILL DEPEND ON THE
WIND SPEEDS; WHILE INFREQUENT AND ERRATIC WINDS HIGHER THAN 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA, DON'T EXPECT THEM TO BE
SUSTAINED DUE TO THE LACK OF INFLUENCE FROM A NEARBY LLJ. ONE MORE
NOTE: EXPECT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE BEHIND
THE LAKE BREEZE TODAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES, RHS RECOVER TO ABOVE 30%, AND WINDS WEAKEN BEHIND IT.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT DESCENDING FROM
CANADA POTENTIALLY BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BACK ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA. RIGHT NOW, ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THANKS TO THE DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER, WITH THE LATEST
HRRR AND CANADIAN RUNS SHOWING LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OVER THE U.P.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NOW, THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE AREA
MAY MISS OUT ENTIRELY ON THE RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WOULD 'EAT' ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE FALLING TOWARDS THE
SFC. IF THAT IS THE CASE, THEN THAT MAY INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS MORE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY VIA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. THANKFULLY, WITH TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO BE COOLER THAN
NORMAL AGAIN AND WINDS REMAINING LIGHT (20 MPH OR LESS), ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT
THIS TIME, EVEN IF THE DRIER SOLUTIONS COME TRUE.
OUR NEXT CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION COMES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A CLIPPER
LOW DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS CLIPPER
TRACKS, WE COULD RECEIVE ANYTHING FROM A WETTING RAINFALL NEARLY
U.P.-WIDE TO ABSOLUTELY NOTHING. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PROGRESSIVELY CLIMB AS AIR FROM THE
MEXICAN INTERIOR AND DESERT SOUTHWEST FINALLY STARTS TO PUSH INTO
OUR AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE KEEP CIGS
AT AROUND 8 TO 10 KFT TODAY BEFORE THEY LOWER TO AROUND 5 KFT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER CMX AND IWD THIS EVENING, THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS POINT (20% OR LESS). AT SAW THOUGH, CHANCES ARE
JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO AT INCLUDE AT LEAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF -SHRA
MENTIONS (UP TO 30%) TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR
TWO OF FG AT SAW TONIGHT LATE AFTER THE -SHRAS, BUT GIVEN THAT THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE FG IS STILL HIGH, DECIDED TO ONLY GO DOWN TO 4SM
BR FOR NOW.
WINDS LOOK TO MOSTLY BE FROM THE W THIS MORNING BEFORE THE LAKE
BREEZES POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN ADDITION, WE MAY GET GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST.
INFREQUENT/ERRATIC GUSTS OF OVER 20 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL OF
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER AND
POTENTIALLY ELEVATED SHOWERS THAT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT HAVE
PRECIPITATION REACH THE SFC (AROUND A 90% CHANCE); TEMPO GROUPS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED IN THE FUTURE IF THE CONFIDENCE ON THE ERRATIC
WINDS INCREASE IN THE FUTURE. WINDS TURN FAIRLY LIGHT EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE THEY START TO BUILD EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY FROM THE W/NW LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AM. WHILE CMX AND SAW MAY FLIRT WITH MARGINAL
LLWS GIVEN THE 180 DEGREE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BETWEEN THE SFC AND 2
KFT, WITH THE WINDS BEING LIGHT TONIGHT (NO MORE THAN 20 KTS),
THINKING WE WILL JUST AVOID LLWS FOR THE TIME BEING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS REMAIN TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT DESCENDING FROM
CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT THE
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE NW TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY, BEFORE LIGHTENING UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY, WINDS MAY ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE NW TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH, EXPECT THE WINDS TO
WEAKEN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL, UNTIL A CLIPPER LOW DIGGING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST POTENTIALLY INCREASES WINDS FROM THE E AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TAP
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