667
FXUS63 KMQT 082316
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
716 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT, WITH
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, COOL AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WITH A POTENTIAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- WARMER WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPPER MICHIGAN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE U.P. AHEAD OF A WEAK
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE NOTED OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH RH VALUES DOWN IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. THIS HAS CREATED SOME LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO 15-20 MPH.
THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE U.P. TONIGHT, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WILL MOSTLY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE,
WITH PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN IN THE HIGHLANDS OF BARAGA
AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. EITHER WAY, DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS AS
MODEL QPF REMAINS CAPPED AT AROUND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE STAY COMPLETELY DRY TONIGHT GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH SEVERAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY.
EXPECT A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATED BY COOL AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN CANADA WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER AS MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE LIKELY
TO DROP INTO THE 30S EACH AFTERNOON, BUT COOLER TEMPS AND LIGHTER
WINDS SHOULD HOPEFULLY HELP TO KEEP THOSE CONCERNS LIMITED. CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR (-5 TO -7C AT 850 MB) LINGERS
ALOFT, BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT
THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS MIDWEEK AS MODELS DEPICT A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS MODELS KEEP ANY SCENARIO ON THE TABLE
FROM A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO THE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH AND
MISSING US COMPLETELY. NBM PROBABILITY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST A QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY RESIDE AROUND 15-25%. WPC
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS THEN FAVOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN
NBM FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S BY NEXT THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CPC'S
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF MAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 716 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND DRY LOWER LEVELS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY PREVENT SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN PICK UP OUT OF
THE NW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1-
2 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT,
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. HAVE
HOISTED SOME SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR THE EASTERN NEARSHORE FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY EVENING AS WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE TO
AROUND 4 FT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. WINDS THEN DIMINISH BACK BELOW
20 KT AND WAVE SUBSIDE BACK TO 1-2 FT BY SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WINDS
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OUT OF THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...CB
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