453
FXUS63 KMQT 090636
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
236 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR US, SAVE FOR MAYBE SOME
SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGHS ONLY GET INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WITH ENTRAINED DRY AIR EATING AWAY ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF
THE SHOWERS THIS MORNING, EXPECT VERY LITTLE IF ANY LIQUID TO HIT
THE SFC OVER THE U.P. TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE COLD FRONT BRINGING IN ANOTHER DRY
POLAR AIR MASS, EXPECT TODAY TO BE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
ALBEIT THE TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO BE COOLER (ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN U.P) AND RHS THIS AFTERNOON DON'T LOOK TO BE AS DRY,
ONLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID TO MAYBE LOWER 20 PERCENTS NEAR THE
WISCONSIN BORDER. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY FROM MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS GUSTS UP TO 20 TO POTENTIALLY EVEN 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL, GIVEN THE WINDS, TEMPERATURES, AND NOT-AS-DRY AIR
AT THE SFC TODAY, DON'T THINK WE WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY SINCE (AGAIN) THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COOLER AND THE SFC NOT AS DRY.
MOVING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN AS HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S OVERSPREAD THE
U.P. EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
DESCENDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK, GIVEN THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY 20 MPH OR
LESS), THINKING WE WILL AVOID FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EVEN AS RHS DROP
INTO THE 20 PERCENTS OVER AT LEAST THE INTERIOR WEST BOTH DAYS.
WHILE THE DRY CONDITIONS CERTAINLY DON'T HELP WITH THE SLOWLY
GROWING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AT THE
SFC/LIQUID BEING ADDED TO THE SOIL), SOME RELIEF IS LOOKING TO
BEGIN VIA A CLIPPER LOW AROUND TUESDAY.
THANKFULLY, THE DIFFERING MODEL GUIDANCES ARE INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST LIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER
LOW DESCENDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE
STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A TRACK FOR THE CLIPPER LOW, CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING ON RAINFALL CHANCES OVER THE U.P. FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME 'WIGGLE-ROOM' ON WHERE
EXACTLY THE CLIPPER LOW WILL TRACK (AND AT WHAT STRENGTH THE LOW
WILL BE), CONFIDENCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ON AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL OCCURING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA. WHAT STILL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ARE THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS, WHERE THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SEEN, AND
HOW LONG THE PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER UPPER MICHIGAN; AS OF
NOW, AREAS OF THE U.P. COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM TO JUST A FEW
HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID TO NEAR HALF AN INCH, AND
PRECIPITATION COULD LAST FOR ONLY AS LONG AS A 12-HOUR PERIOD TO
NEARLY 36-HOURS DEPENDING ON THE GUIDANCE YOU GO WITH. OVERALL, THIS
SYSTEM WILL AT THE VERY LEAST PROVIDE A SLIGHT REPRIEVE TO ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THERE MAY BE AS WE HEAD INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SPEAKING OF WHICH, EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK CURRENTLY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DETERIORATES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK (THUS THE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY). THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OF CLIPPER LOWS FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE WEEK FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS. IN ADDITION, THIS WILL OPEN US UP TO RECEIVE SOME
GULF AIR, INCREASING THE MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS
INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL. THUS, WHILE WE MAY SEE
HIGHS RETURN BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE U.P. BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF BEING SIPHONED INTO
THE REGION, WE COULD ACTUALLY ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER US AS WE AWAIT OUR SPRING GREEN-UP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH
JUST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.
WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE NW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY. WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE LOOKING TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING,
ANOTHER WEAK SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS BACK UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DROP DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND TO REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. AS A CLIPPER LOW
DESCENDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, EXPECT THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ON
TUESDAY, WITH THE WINDS BACKING WITH TIME AS THE LOW BEGINS TO TRACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BEHIND THE CLIPPER, WE MAY SEE WINDS
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS TUESDAY EVENING, BEFORE WEAK
INCOMING COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE ON WEDNESDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP
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