079
FXUS63 KMQT 091857
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
257 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND, SAVE FOR MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES AND VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS
ONLY GET INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM
IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
AFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS PLACE THE UP
UNDERNEATH A SHORTWAVE. THIS WAVE IS PART OF A BROADER TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. BENEATH THE SHORTWAVE, A
997 MB LOW IS MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC, RESULTING IN COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW OVERHEAD. DESPITE SOME ISOLATED REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ON THE
RADAR, DRY AIR WILL LIMIT MOST PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DOES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST (~20%), BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE... MOST LIKELY
JUST SPRINKLES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT
YIELDS A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (25% CHANCE
CENTRAL UP). QPF ONCE AGAIN IS LIMITED BY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR IN THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN TEMPS TRENDING COOLER WITH HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 60S, WARMEST SOUTH-CENTRAL, LOWERING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S TONIGHT. HIGHS ONLY PEAK IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S ON SUNDAY. THIS AND GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY
WEEKEND LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE RH IN AREAS PARTICULARLY
NEAR WI TRYING TO DIP INTO THE 20%S. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT SETTLE INTO
THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF
TROUGHING ALOFT; HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY RESULTING IN MORE DRY RHS. INTERIOR MINIMUM RHS IN THE 20S TO
MID 30S. LUCKILY WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT KEEPING GUSTS BELOW 15
MPH AND LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP LAKESHORES MODERATED.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS BACK WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE UP ON TUESDAY
(70-95% CHANCE). GENERALLY LOOKING AT SYSTEM QPF BETWEEN 0.15 AND
0.30 INCHES, HOWEVER WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALIGNED WITH A BRIEF
WAVE OF PWATS BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.00 INCHES COULD YIELD HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5 INCHES IN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (25-45% CHANCE).
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. DISCREPANCIES ON SURFACE
LOW TRACK STILL REMAIN IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPACT ON TIMING/DURATION AND AMOUNTS.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AS THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES EAST, BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH IT. FROM THERE A SHIFT IN THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO AGREE ON
HOW THIS EXACTLY PANS OUT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY EXPECTING A
SHIFT TO QUAZI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH PERIODIC TROUGHS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS IT. THIS SUPPORTS LOW PRECIP CHANCES (15-25%)
NEXT WEEKEND AND WARMING TREND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO THE
EAST. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FLIGHT CATEGORY TODAY WITH MAIN IMPACTS
THIS TAF PERIOD BEING FROM THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KTS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD
GENERATE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS AT BOTH IWD AND
SAW TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW, WILL ONLY TREND TOWARD MVFR AT
SAW, BUT WILL LIKELY ADD TO IWD AS WELL WITH LATER TAF
ISSUANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE BETWEEN 20-30 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON SETTLE TO MAINLY 20 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT; WINDS OVER
THE WEST HALF REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS. WINDS HOLD MAINLY 20 KTS OR LESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE
OVERHEAD, SAVE FOR SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON TUESDAY LIKELY BRINGS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 20-30 KTS TO THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 KTS IN THE LOW PRESSURE'S WAKE ON
WEDNESDAY. DISCREPANCIES IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK COULD IMPACT TIMING
AND SPREAD OF HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. CURRENT PROBABILITIES
FOR GALES REMAIN BELOW 25%.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...77
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