708
FXUS63 KMQT 101752
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
152 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE WEEK, SAVE FOR MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
AND VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON-TAP FOR TODAY AND MONDAY AS
HIGHS ONLY GET INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE NOW IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS TO ALL OF THE U.P. COME STARTING TUESDAY.
- WARMER WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED BY
THE END OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT PRETTY QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. HOWEVER, WITH ONE LAST SHOT OF
CAA MOVING THROUGH THE U.P. NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING, WE
ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA. THESE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL U.P. TODAY, WITH THE
SHOWERS INTENSIFYING BY THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO DIURNAL HEATING.
HOWEVER, ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID ARE EXPECTED OUT
OF THESE SHOWERS, AND WITH TEMPERATURES PROJECTED TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING TODAY, NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE
SHOT OF CAA, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT THEY WERE THE
PREVIOUS TWO DAYS; EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S, MAKING THIS
MOTHER'S DAY A LITTLE CHILLY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. BY THE TIME THE
SUN SETS THIS EVENING, EXPECT THE SKIES TO MOSTLY CLEAR OUT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MAKE IT'S WAY INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. DUE TO THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO
DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE INTERIOR TO LOWER 30S BY THE GREAT LAKES.
MONDAY MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER DUE TO THE SUNNY SKIES.
HOWEVER, WITH COOL, DRY AIR STILL ENTRAINED AT THE SFC, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S. WHILE RHS LOOK TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20 PERCENTS IN THE
INTERIOR WEST ON MONDAY, WITH VIRTUALLY VERY LITTLE/LIGHT WIND(S)
AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING, NO FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK CHANGES ON TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER LOW DIGS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND EVENTUALLY UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF
THE U.P., WITH MOST OF THE REGION SEEING A WETTING RAINFALL OF A
QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH OF LIQUID BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STOPS
ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT, WITH THE BETTER ENERGY DYNAMICS FURTHER SOUTH OF US NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE CLIPPER PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE U.P. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WE COULD SEE A TRANSITION OVER
TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST
WIND BELTS. WHILE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE LAKE ENHANCED
RAINFALL DON'T LOOK TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, IT WOULD KEEP CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL GOING EVEN INTO MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
MOVING INTO THE REST OF THIS WEEK, EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND AS
GULF AIR STARTS TO GET PULLED NORTHWARDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THUS, WHILE WE CAN EXPECT TO
SEE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FOLLOWED BY
SHORTWAVE LOWS TO END THE FORECAST PERIOD (I.E. THIS WEEK), WE CAN
ALSO EXPECT THE AIR OVER US TO BE MORE MOIST THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN
THE PAST FEW DAYS, NOT TO MENTION THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
RETURN INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF THIS WEEK OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES ARE FALLING THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTS TO 15 KTS ARE IMPACTING IWD THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THANKS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF CAA
MOVING OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER, AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES PUSHES IN, EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP TO 20 KNOTS OR
LESS LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THE LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY,
EXPECT A CLIPPER LOW DESCENDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY TO INTENSIFY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL LAKE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35
KNOTS POSSIBLE; CURRENTLY, THE LATEST LREF BRINGS AROUND A 10%
CHANCE FOR LOW-END GALES OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE ON TUESDAY. AS THE
CLIPPER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OUT OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH TO 20 TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE (BUT ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND
EAST); SOME GALES OVER 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
THE CURRENT PROBABILITIES STILL REMAIN BELOW 25% FOR NOW. BEHIND THE
CLIPPER, A SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE AREA
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY, WINDS COULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN LATE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP
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