027
FXUS63 KMQT 111813
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
213 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 60; WARMEST
INTERIOR WEST.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
- GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY AND YET
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED BY THE END OF THIS
WEEK. IN ADDITION, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF MAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
DRY AND BENIGN WEATHER STARTS THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE U.P. TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH
ANTECEDENT COOL AIR REMAINING OVER US, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TODAY
TO ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS GETTING
ONLY INTO THE MID 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR UP TO AROUND 60 IN THE
INTERIOR WEST. WHILE RHS LOOK TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 20 PERCENTS OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS, ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR WEST, BY THIS AFTERNOON,
NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WINDS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT TODAY. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF THE LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
U.P. BY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
THE DRY PATTERN WE'VE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CHANGES ON TUESDAY
AS A CLIPPER LOW DROPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS IT DOES
SO, EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE
U.P., BRINGING AT THE VERY LEAST A WETTING RAINFALL TO THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY EVENING (BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.50
INCHES). AS THE LOW CONTINUES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A
TRANSITION OVER TO LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH WIND
BELTS, WITH SOME SNOW POTENTIALLY MIXING IN AT TIMES IN THE KEWEENAW
AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED). AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, EXPECT THE
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO END ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE U.P. BECOMING
SHOWER-FREE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES FOLLOWED BY SHORTWAVE LOWS OR FRONTAL
PASSAGES BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS, WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF WILL BE SIPHONED UP INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH THE SHORTWAVE LOWS/FRONTS PUSHING THIS GULF AIR OVER US
BEGINNING IN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE ACTIVE PERIOD SHOULD ALSO DAMPER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS RAINFALL OCCURS EVERY-OTHER DAY OR ONCE EVERY
THREE DAYS OR SO. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SPRING GREEN-UP TO ACCELERATE
AS WE HEADS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF MAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT WITH UPPER MICHIGAN STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, AS A CLIPPER
APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT, EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES AND CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO MVFR LEVELS. BY
MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW, CMX AND SAW COULD SEE FURTHER
DETERIORATION TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR. FOR NOW, THOUGH,
WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE LIFR THREAT WITH PROB30S. IN ADDITION TO
THE CEILING RESTRICTIONS, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS AFTER TUE 09Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, AS A CLIPPER
LOW APPROACHES FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY
EVEN GUSTING UP TO GALES OF 35 KNOTS OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE BY
TUESDAY AS THE LOW ARRIVES; AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THERE IS
AROUND A 60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST LOW-END GALES OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE
ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, AS THE LOW APPROACHES TONIGHT, THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEEN OVER THE FAR
WESTERN LAKE. AS THE CLIPPER CONTINUES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE
WINDS TO INITIALLY WEAKEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS REINFORCING COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES
BEHIND THE LOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS
TO PICK UP FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE, WITH GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE
NEAR MARQUETTE AND MUNISING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING (AROUND A 60%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST LOW-END GALES ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM).
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEPART EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, EXPECT THE WINDS TO DWINDLE WITH TIME LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR
LESS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
THE LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING PASSES BY. HOWEVER, WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP
FROM THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN TO AT LEAST 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF
THE LAKE; SOME GALES UP TO 35 KNOTS COULD ALSO BE SEEN OVER THE
EASTERN LAKE TOO COME FRIDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ244-245-248>250-264>266.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ248>250-265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP
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