563
FNUS73 KMQT 171113 CCA
FWSMQT
SPOT FORECAST FOR PAULA RED...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
713 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MAY 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH COOLER EASTERLY FLOW TODAY. THIS
WILL HELP KEEP RH FROM DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY. GULF
MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH HUMIDITY EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TOIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........42 AT IGNITION...MAX 67.
RH..................80 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 42 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............39 INCREASING TO 42 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTHEAST AT 2 MPH AT
IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST
5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 7 TO
8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST UP TO 5 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1100-3000
FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-3400 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (79) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (302.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......24 DECREASING TO 18.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........26 42 49 44 62 67 69 68 68 81
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............42 46 51 55 58 61 63 64 65 65
DEWPOINT........37 38 39 40 41 41 42 43 42 42
RH..............80 74 63 56 52 48 45 45 44 42
33 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE E E E SE SE SE
33 FT WIND SPD..2 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 8
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE E E E SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..2 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6
WIND GUST.......5 6 6 6 10 10 10 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.2 1.7 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 2.8
VINDX KT-FT/100.8 7 12 17 17 21 23 26 30 28
CEILING (KFT)...24 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 19 18
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...35 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 90 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............41 INCREASING TO 46 AFTER 3 AM.
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH
IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2200 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO FAIR (63.0-223.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.25 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......12 DECREASING TO 0.4.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........84 90 95 95 94 80 75 79 84 84 83 82
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 40 60 70 60 60 40 50 50 40 30
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 10 10 10 30 30 30 40 40 40 20
TEMP............63 62 59 54 51 50 50 50 50 50 50 51
DEWPOINT........42 41 42 41 41 40 41 42 43 45 46 47
RH..............45 47 53 62 67 68 72 75 78 82 86 87
33 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
33 FT WIND SPD..9 9 9 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WIND GUST.......14 14 14 18 18 18 19 19 19 18 18 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.5
VINDX KT-FT/100.22 14 12 7 6 7 8 8 20 8 7 6
CEILING (KFT)...12 8.6 6.5 4.4 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...24 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 75.
RH..................MIN 57 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............51 INCREASING TO 56 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST 12 TO 14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-2100 FT AGL.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR TO GOOD (51.0-442.0).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.18 INCHES.
CEILING (KFT).......0.3 DECREASING TO 0.2 EARLY IN THE MORNING,
THEN INCREASING TO 0.4 LATE IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO 0.6 LATE IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO 0.8 INCREASING TO 1.1 EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 1.8 INCREASING TO
4.3 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 6.9
INCREASING TO 9.4 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........84 85 80 71 65 82 76 73 69 65 87 86
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 20 20 20 30 40 60 70 70 70 70
CHC OF THDR (%).20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
TEMP............51 52 55 58 62 66 70 72 72 74 72 71
DEWPOINT........49 49 51 53 54 55 56 56 56 58 58 58
RH..............90 88 87 82 75 67 60 57 57 57 61 62
33 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
33 FT WIND SPD..10 10 10 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 14
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..8 8 8 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11
WIND GUST.......16 16 16 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
VINDX KT-FT/100.5 6 7 10 17 24 41 44 35 23 27 26
CEILING (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 4.3 6.9 9.4
FORECASTER...NJL
REQUESTED BY...ROB MACDONALD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2613819.0/MQT
.DELDT 05/17/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ROBERT.J.MACDONALD@USDA.GOV
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