080
FXUS63 KMQT 252346
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK MAY CAUSE INCREASED HEAT RISK
FOR VULNERABLE AND SENSITIVE POPULATIONS. HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATELINE ON TUESDAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-30%) PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE 'POP-UP' NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY, LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WAA LAST NIGHT AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR AREA TODAY. WITH THE FOG DISSIPATING OVER THE U.P.
THIS MORNING, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE 70S EVEN OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR EAST TODAY DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN LIMITING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BY THE LAKESHORE. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY SHIFTING
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND TROUGHING SET UP OVER THE PLAINS, SOUTHWEST
FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20 MPH POSSIBLE BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE SUNNY
SKIES ARE BEING REALIZED TODAY (AS SEEN BY SATELLITE IMAGERY), GIVEN
THAT WE HAVE PWATS AROUND 1" OVER THE U.P. TODAY, THINKING RHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30% THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT BEING
SAID, SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR WEST LOOK LIKE THEY WILL SNEAK INTO
THE UPPER 20 PERCENTS DUE TO STRONG MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THANKS TO THE SOLAR HEATING FROM THE CLOUD-FREE SKIES. WHILE SOME
CAMS DO SHOW SOME CONVECTION FIRING OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, THINKING THE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE
SPOTTY, 'POP-UP' NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AS WELL AS CONVECTION
ALREADY BEING SEEN IN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING POTENTIALLY 'EATING
AWAY' ANY POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC ENERGY THAT COULD BE USED UPSTREAM
OVER US. THEREFORE, LIMITING RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
AROUND 15 TO 30% LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.P. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THIS EVENING COULD ALSO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS FURTHER NORTH (WE
ARE ONLY BEING SKIMMED BY THE COLD FRONT) AND THE CONVECTION WOULD
NEED TO PASS THROUGH THE STABLE SFC MARINE LAYER OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS
INSTABILITY IS PROGRESSIVELY LOST ALOFT DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING,
THINKING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE LOW
(15-25% CHANCE). NEVERTHELESS, AS STATED BY THE MID SHIFT,
CONVECTION MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER US
DOES TEND TO OVERPERFORM WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE
BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE MARGINAL RISK BY SPC EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THUS, WE MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EXTRA EYE ON THE CONVECTION MOVING
TOWARDS THE WESTERN U.P. LATE TONIGHT IN CASE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE
WINDS AND/OR HAIL BECOME REALIZED.
THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR SUNNY SKIES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
HIGHS LOOKING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE INTERIOR AREAS ALONG
THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THE WARM WEATHER MAY INCREASE HEAT RISK
CONCERNS FOR SOME OF THE MORE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE POPULATION;
BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND DON'T OVERWORK YOURSELF
OUTSIDE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY. SOME POP-UP
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO BE NON-SEVERE. WHILE RHS
LOOK TO BE LOWER ON TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY BELOW 25% OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST (AROUND A 30 TO 50% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST REFS RUN),
WITH WINDS LOOKING TO REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 15 MPH, NO ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE SOME COOLER AIR
FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA LOOKS TO DIVE IN OVERHEAD DURING
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (THE LAST HALF OF THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND), GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR SUNNY
SKIES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD, EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS (HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO 80S). IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE LIGHT SFC FLOW CAUSED BY THE THE
OMEGA BLOCK, EXPECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE BREEZE TO BECOME MORE
NOTABLE IN ENSUING DAYS VIA THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW. WITH
WINDS GENERALLY STAYING 20 MPH OR LESS, NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, EVEN DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MIN RHS DIPPING TO 30% OR LESS THE LAST HALF OF
THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
RADAR SHOWS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO ALGER COUNTY AND POINTS
EAST AS OF 00Z TUE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN EAST OF THE
TERMINALS AND CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS LEAVES VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY
HIGH CIRRUS. A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING, BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE WEST. WILL CARRY PROB30S FOR -SHRA AT KIWD AND -TSRA
AT KCMX PRIOR TO 06Z. MEANWHILE, A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LLWS TO KCMX AND KSAW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
TURNING N-NW AT 5-10 KT ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. CAN'T RULE OUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.
HIGHEST PROBS WILL EXIST NEAR THE WI BORDER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WITH THE MARINE FOG NOW DISSIPATED AND OUT OF THE AREA (EXCEPT IN
THE FAR NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE), EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS
OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY TO RISE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS TONIGHT OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SKIMMING THE REGION. WHILE WE MAY SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE NEAR MARQUETTE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, AND AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING
BY TONIGHT (MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE), GIVEN THE 'POP-UP' NATURE
OF THE CONVECTION AND THE BETTER FORCING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINING
FURTHER NORTH, RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN AT 30% OR LESS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES BY AND WEAK ZONAL FLOW
TAKES ITS PLACE, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS TO RETURN ON
TUESDAY. THE LIGHT WINDS REMAIN UNTIL POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY, WHEN A
DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS NORTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTING UP SHOP
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THE REST OF THE WEEK, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN
20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS NEXT
WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...TAP
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