338
FXUS63 KMQT 270740
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATELINE THIS AFTERNOON.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-30%) PERSIST IN THE FORECAST (FAR
SOUTH) THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
- DRY WEATHER STILL ON TRACK TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, LIKELY
PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING HAS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE LOWER MIDWEST, EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BUT, STRONG MID-
LEVEL RIDGING INTO A STRENGTHENING OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE INFLUENCING UPPER MICHIGAN
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. AMPLE SUNSHINE IN THIS DRY PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S INLAND. A SURGE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER
80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND WISCONSIN BORDER.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THIS WILL RESULT IN BORDERLINE ELEVATED CONDITIONS
MOST DAYS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AS RH VALUES DIP AS
LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 20S PERCENT. WIND GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 15
MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER THREAT
A BIT, HOWEVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH AND INTERIOR WEST ARE
REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S, ON TRACK TO REACH HIGH 80S AND LOW 90S
DUE TO ONGOING WESTERLY WAA AND STRONG SOLAR RADIATION. THIS HEAT
MAY BE MITIGATED IN AREAS AFFECTED BY A SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE: 0.5-
DEGREE BASE REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A CLEAR BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE IN A
LINE CENTERED ROUGHLY AT HARVEY BEGINNING AT 1340Z AND MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INLAND. THIS BOW-SHAPED BREEZE REACHED GWINN AT 1440Z,
AND STRETCHED TO A LINE SPANNING FROM MICHIGAMME TO BARK RIVER BY
1730Z. BEHIND THE LAKE-BREEZE HEAD, TEMPERATURES INLAND SIT AT LEAST
10F BELOW THOSE AHEAD OF IT IN THE HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S;
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORE, WELL WITHIN THE MARINE ENVELOPE,
ARE EVEN CHILLIER IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S.
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL LIGHTEN INTO THE NIGHT, AS THE REGION
CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER WESTERLY MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW AND ILL-
DEFINED, SPRAWLING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE. ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES
THUS FAR TODAY, STRONG MIXING, AND DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW-
LEVELS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PLUNGING TO BETWEEN 20-30% IN
THE INTERIOR WEST. THOUGH RH VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS LOW IN THE
EASTERN UP AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE HIGH 20% TO LOW 30% RANGE LATER THIS EVENING (AROUND
22Z). DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND CONSEQUENT LIGHT WINDS,
HOWEVER, FIRE WEATHER DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY BORDERLINE
ELEVATED IN SOME AREAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION EXISTS OVER
MENOMINEE COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN UP BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z, AS AN MCV
BRUSHES THE WI STATE BORDER, THEN IS STEERED EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. THE 1630Z ISSUANCE OF SPC'S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPGRADED
THE WESTERN BORDER OF MENOMINEE COUNTY FROM GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TO
A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. THE HRRR AND NAM SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE,
BUT GUIDANCE AGREES ON UNIMPRESSIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE BOARD. WITH
THIS IN MIND, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR MENOMINEE COUNTY TONIGHT,
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES REACHING ONLY UP TO 50% AND FOR A ONLY A
FEW HOURS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AS AN
OMEGA BLOCK FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. REGIONALLY, WESTERLY MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO
NORTHWESTERLY VEERING TO NORTHERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY MIDDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORGANIZES AND DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. ON THE SURFACE, WINDS REMAINS LIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THIS
HIGH TRACKS DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IN THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH AND 70S ELSEWHERE
(LOWER ALONG THE LAKESHORES) THROUGH THE WEEK. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE OMEGA BLOCK PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH WARM DAYTIME HIGHS, WELL ABOVE-FREEZING LOWS, AND
LIGHT WINDS.
SO FAR, THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY (AFTER TODAY), WITH HIGHS
INTERIOR WEST REACHING INTO THE HIGH 80'S. WITH MINIMUM RH'S
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 30-50%, APPARENT TEMPERATURE TOPS OUT IN THE
MID-80S (70S AND LOWER EAST AND NEAR THE LAKESHORES). THE WARM
WEATHER MAY INCREASE HEAT RISK CONCERNS FOR SOME OF THE MORE
VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE POPULATION; BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER, AND DON'T OVERWORK YOURSELF OUTSIDE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
A WEAK DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
MAY GENERATE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE, BUT ABUNDANT
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FROM
REACHING THE GROUND TODAY. OTHERWISE, BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RESULTS IN VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE DURATION
OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME
NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT KSAW AFTER 21Z WED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WITH A COLD FRONT DESCENDING OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WE MAY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE; THAT BEING SAID, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT THIS TIME REMAIN VERY
LOW, AT LESS THAN 15% CURRENTLY. NEVERTHELESS, CHANCES MAY INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ADDITIONAL CAMS ARE PICKING UP ON
POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN, THE U.P., AND/OR
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT FUNNELING OF NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE TO INCREASE THE WINDS SPEEDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS, WITH
THE EASTERN LAKE POTENTIALLY GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS LATE IN THE DAY
TOO. THAT BEING SAID, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK SETTING UP SHOP
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK ONWARDS, EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON SATURDAY
WHEN A SHOT OF COLD AIR DESCENDS OVER THE LAKE FROM THE NORTH; WINDS
MAY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEFORE DYING DOWN IN THE EVENING.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...TDUD
DISCUSSION...RE
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...TAP
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