900
FXUS63 KMQT 281144
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
744 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
UPPER MICHIGAN IS NOW SOLELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
OMEGA BLOCK FEATURE PER SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS PATTERN WILL PREDOMINATE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
TODAY TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S (NORTH) TO LOW 80S
(INTERIOR WEST) WITH AN ESPECIALLY WARM DAY TOMORROW. FRIDAY'S
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EXCEED THE 90 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST/WI BORDER WITH HIGH 70S PUSHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE
KEWEENAW. BE SURE TO EXCERCISE CAUTION AND DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER, AND DON'T OVERWORK YOURSELF OUTSIDE, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY. BY THE WEEKEND, THE HEAT WILL
BECOME MORE SUBDUED, BUT STILL RUNNING CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, THIS WILL RESULT IN ALMOST
DAILY CHANCES FOR BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WITH 20S
PERCENT RH VALUES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAN JUST THE INTERIOR
WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FACTOR COUPLED WITH A FEW BREEZY DAYS OF
15 TO 20 MPH WIND GUSTS (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY) COULD ENHANCE THE
FIRE THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
THIS AFTERNOON IS CURRENTLY UNFOLDING INTO A QUINTESSENTIAL FAIR
WEATHER DAY AT THE SURFACE IN THE U.P. ALOFT, MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
HAS GIVEN WAY TO MERIDIONAL FLOW AS AN OMEGA BLOCK MAKES CAMP OVER
CONUS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY SOUTH TO THE U.P.
THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE LEE OF INCOMING
RIDGING, RENDERING HIGH TEMPS LESS ANOMALOUSLY WARM THAN
YESTERDAY. AS OF 18Z, A LAKE BREEZE IS JUST VISIBLE ON RADAR AS
MOVES SOUTH TOWARD CHAMPION. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CLEAR
SKIES AND RADIATIONAL HEATING WILL ALLOW SURFACE MIXING TO TAP
INTO A RELATIVELY WEAK LLJ FOR A FEW HOURS, RESULTING IN 15-20
MPH GUSTS UP ACROSS THE U.P. FIRE WEATHER DANGER REMAINS
BORDERLINE ELEVATED: DESPITE DRY SURFACE AND LOW-LEVELS,
SURFACE RHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 30% EXCEPT IN
ISOLATED AREAS FOR SHORT DURATION.
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL SEE THE BLOCK PATTERN SETTLING INTO PLACE. AT
THIS TIME, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PATTERN PERSISTING IN
SOME FASHION UNTIL NEXT TUESDAY. FOR TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY,
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA, WHILE THE LEEWARD EDGE OF THE RIDGE IS
FRAMED BY A SERIES OF ORBITING, CLOSED, MID-LEVEL LOWS. AT THE
SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A REPEATED PATTERN OF HUDSON BAY HIGHS FORM
TO OUR NORTH, WHICH THEN PROPAGATE SOUTH TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.P.
AND LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS, ANOMALOUSLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES, WELL ABOVE-FREEZING
LOWS, AND NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION. ALONG WITH THIS, AFTERNOON
AND EVENING RH'S ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE HIGH 20S AND LOW 30S
FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
A FEW PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST: THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE
FRIDAY CASE, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST CONSOLIDATES AND
SENDS AN IMPULSE TOWARD THE REGION AS IT PASSES FROM QUEBEC TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE TAIL END OF THE LLJ FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL GRAZE THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE U.P. WITH THE TIMING OF
THIS WIND BEING IN THE AFTERNOON OF A HOT DAY, MIXING WILL LIKELY
ALLOW SOME OF THOSE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
FRIDAY REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-HIGH 80S, AND 90 CLOSER TO THE WI
BORDER, DUE TO A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF
FRIDAY ENDS UP BEING LIKE YESTERDAY, HOWEVER, AN EARLY LAKE BREEZE
MAY MITIGATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM WEATHER MAY INCREASE HEAT RISK
CONCERNS FOR SOME OF THE MORE VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE POPULATION;
BE SURE TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND DON'T OVERWORK YOURSELF
OUTSIDE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE HOTTEST HOURS OF THE DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER MICHIGAN REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 10 KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
LIGHT, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LESS THAN 20 KTS PERSISTS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FOR THE FAR WESTERN REACH AND EAST
OF THE KEWEENAW, GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO LAY DOWN OVERNIGHT
AS THE JET ALOFT MOVES SOUTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. TOMORROW AND
INTO FRIDAY, WINDS VEER NORTHERLY (VARIABLE LATER IN THE DAY) AND
VERY LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL FUNNELING IN
WESTERN END WHICH INCREASES SPEEDS SLIGHTLY AND CAUSES FLOW TO
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY. SIMILARLY, GUSTS REMAIN LOW AT LESS
THAN 12 KNOTS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, FLOW ORGANIZES AND INCREASES SLIGHTLY TO BECOME
WESTERLY, THEN NORTHERLY, AS A TROUGH PASSES EAST OF THE REGION,
HEADING SOUTH. ANOTHER JET IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW,
CAUSING GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER BECOMING EASTERLY INTO SATURDAY,
WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS IN THE REGION, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...TDUD
DISCUSSION...RE
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...RE/TAP
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