703
FXUS63 KMQT 282308
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
708 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 20% OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR, WARM TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A
STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED JUST
A FEW HIGH WISPY CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P., OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE WAS ABUNDANT AND TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING THROUGH THE 60S,
ON THEIR WAY TO THE 70S. IT WAS A BIT COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE OF
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WERE LIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK, WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING THE STORM TRACK
WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF DRIER,
NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES SLIDE SOUTH
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE WARMEST DAY TOMORROW, OVERALL THE DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, LIMITING ANY HEAT
STRESS. THAT BEING SAID, IF YOU ARE WORKING OR RECREATING OUTSIDE ON
FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS AS HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS. BESIDES FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S, ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 40S THOUGH IT WILL STAY A BIT WARMER, 50S,
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN HAZARD CONCERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF SHUNTED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MOST AFTERNOONS WILL SEE
HUMIDITY DROP INTO THE 15-25% RANGE ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 MPH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE OTHER DAYS
WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AND THUS BORDERLINE-ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THOSE PLANNING TO HAVE OUTDOOR FIRES SHOULD PAY ATTENTION
TO THE CONDITIONS AND LOCAL AREA BURN RESTRICTIONS.
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
OR AT LEAST BECOME MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED LATE NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SURGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
FROM THE CPC IS CALLING FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
EXPECT THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST BUT HOPEFULLY SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA AS THE LAST 30 DAYS HAVE
BEEN VERY DRY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES VFR/SKC CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, WITH WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY CALM TONIGHT AND DRIVEN BY THE
LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
PARADE OF HIGH PRESSURES MOVING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY QUITE MARINE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RAMP UP A BIT ON FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE, WITH WINDS UP TO
25KT, LINGERING IN THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT IN THE
WEST MONDAY, AS FUNNELING OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW COULD BRING EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25KT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...NL
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