180
FXUS63 KMQT 291744
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
144 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 20% OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR, WARM TEMPERATURES AND WINDS GUSTING TO 20
MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY. BUT,
STRONG OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
INFLUENCING UPPER MICHIGAN WEATHER WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS MEANS DRY, WARM CONDITIONS IN NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TODAY STILL ON TRACK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO TOP OFF NEAR THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH WITH UPPER 70S EXTENDING
AS FAR NORTH AS THE KEWEENAW. SO, IF YOU ARE WORKING OR
RECREATING OUTSIDE TODAY, REMEMBER TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER. AFTER MORE WIDESPREAD 70S TOMORROW (LOW 80S
WEST), TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB AGAIN WITH LOW TO MID 80S
PREVAILING MOST DAYS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE EXCEPTION TO
THE HEAT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES. WITH
THIS SETUP WILL COME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S PERCENT RANGE. A LACK OF STRONG WINDS
WILL BE THE MITIGATING FACTOR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST,
BUT THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE TODAY AND TOMORROW WHEN WINDS COULD
GUST UP TO 20 MPH. SO, THESE DAYS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A
STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED JUST
A FEW HIGH WISPY CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P., OTHERWISE
SUNSHINE WAS ABUNDANT AND TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING THROUGH THE 60S,
ON THEIR WAY TO THE 70S. IT WAS A BIT COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE OF
THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WERE LIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK, WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, KEEPING THE STORM TRACK
WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF DRIER,
NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES SLIDE SOUTH
FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE WARMEST DAY TOMORROW, OVERALL THE DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS, LIMITING ANY HEAT
STRESS. THAT BEING SAID, IF YOU ARE WORKING OR RECREATING OUTSIDE ON
FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN U.P. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED
AND TAKE PRECAUTIONS AS HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S WITH SUNNY
CONDITIONS. BESIDES FRIDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S, ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 40S THOUGH IT WILL STAY A BIT WARMER, 50S,
OVER THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN HAZARD CONCERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF SHUNTED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. MOST AFTERNOONS WILL SEE
HUMIDITY DROP INTO THE 15-25% RANGE ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 MPH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE OTHER DAYS
WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AND THUS BORDERLINE-ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THOSE PLANNING TO HAVE OUTDOOR FIRES SHOULD PAY ATTENTION
TO THE CONDITIONS AND LOCAL AREA BURN RESTRICTIONS.
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
OR AT LEAST BECOME MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED LATE NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SURGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
FROM THE CPC IS CALLING FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
EXPECT THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST BUT HOPEFULLY SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA AS THE LAST 30 DAYS HAVE
BEEN VERY DRY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS LAKE
BREEZES DRIVE DIRECTION CHANGES. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
NO CATEGORY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSING COLD FRONT, BUT A
FEW/SCT CLOUD DECK ~6KFT IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
PARADE OF HIGH PRESSURES MOVING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY QUITE MARINE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RAMP UP A BIT ON FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LAKE, WITH WINDS UP TO
25KT, LINGERING IN THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT IN THE
WEST MONDAY, AS FUNNELING OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW COULD BRING EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25KT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...TDUD
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...77
MARINE...NL
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