283
FXUS63 KMQT 300746
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
346 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 20-25% RANGE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND
SOUTH WITH THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A COLD FRONT NOW
DRAPED ACROSS WISCONSIN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UP. THIS EQUATES TO
CONTINUED DRY, WARM CONDITIONS IN NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW
AND AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE EXPERIENCED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PROMPT AN SPS FOR TODAY. WILL OPT TO KEEP THE EAST OUT OF THE
SPS FOR NOW, HOWEVER, DUE TO SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WIND GUSTS OVER
THAT SECTOR. NONETHELESS, WIDESPREAD RH VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20S PERCENT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR U.P.
SO, THOSE PLANNING TO HAVE OUTDOOR FIRES SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO
THE CONDITIONS AND LOCAL AREA BURN RESTRICTIONS. WITH LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLES STARTING TO SHOW A BREAK IN THE CURRENT OMEGA
BLOCK LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH, HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD HELP COUNTERACT THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FIRE THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS HAS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS UNDER ROBUST
RIDGING, WHILE CLOSED LOWS SPIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND QUEBEC. AT
THE SURFACE, 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY AND
OVER THE LP/OH, WHILE IN BETWEEN WEAK TROUGHING EXTENDS INTO THE UP
FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO
TOUCH OFF ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER, BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND AMPLE MIXING UNDER SUNNY SKIES, SOME ~20MPH WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UP TODAY. THIS COMES AS
TEMPERATURES ARE SOARING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST
OF THE INTERIOR-EASTERN UP, WHILE EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES PEAK IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F IN THE WEST. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT QUITE NICELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE UP. THAT SAID,
SOME SPOTS COULD SEE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S. THIS IS
RESULTING IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING AT LEAST INTO THE MID 20S
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIND THOSE BURN RESTRICTIONS!
TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LOOKS TO DROP THROUGH
THE AREA WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH EXPANDS SOUTHWARD.
WINDS IN TURN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, GUSTING UP TO 20MPH
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE SHIFTING OVER GENERALLY TO
THE EAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT WHERE THEY REMAIN ELEVATED (SUCH AS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL UP AND THE KEWEENAW), ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER DRY DAY IN STORE. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY DO COME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS "ONLY" IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST AND CLOSER TO 80F IN THE INTERIOR-
WESTERN UP. AS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT YET AGAIN, RH FALLS AT LEAST TO THE
LOWER-MID 20% RANGE IN THE INTERIOR UP.
THE MAIN HAZARD CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CONTINUED
NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP MUCH OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SHUNTED TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA. MOST AFTERNOONS WILL SEE HUMIDITY DROP INTO THE 15-25% RANGE
ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THOSE PLANNING
TO HAVE OUTDOOR FIRES SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE CONDITIONS AND
LOCAL AREA BURN RESTRICTIONS.
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SIGNS THAT THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
OR AT LEAST BECOME MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED LATE NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SURGING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK
FROM THE CPC IS CALLING FOR A GOOD CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
EXPECT THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST BUT HOPEFULLY SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA AS THE LAST 30 DAYS HAVE
BEEN VERY DRY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME MARGINAL LLWS IS BEING SEEN AT SAW THIS MORNING, AND
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER DAWN. EXPECT THE LIGHTER ESE/SE WINDS
THIS MORNING TO INCREASE A LITTLE BY THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
OVER CMX AS SOME GUSTS UP TO 21 KTS COULD BE SEEN FROM TIME-TO-TIME
OVER THERE. WINDS LIGHTEN UP AND BECOME MORE S'RLY THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
LAKE, WITH WINDS UP TO 25KT, LINGERING IN THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 15KT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT IN THE WEST MONDAY, AS FUNNELING OF THE NORTHEAST
FLOW COULD BRING EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25KT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...TDUD
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...LC
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