337
FXUS63 KMQT 311712
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
112 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
- HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 20-25% RANGE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES, RESULTING IN AT LEAST BORDERLINE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- NEXT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN A WINDOW FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS IS HIGH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE UPPER
MICHIGAN WEATHER WITH NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. RAP ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING STILL
SHOWS RIDGING FROM MANITOBA/ONTARIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, CLOSED LOWS HAVE PUSHED FARTHER INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT, THE DRY, WARM
CONDITIONS IN EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A FIRE WEATHER
THREAT INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY, HOWEVER, NO SPS
HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TOMORROW WITH AN UPTICK IN
EASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. MEANWHILE, WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S PERCENT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR U.P. SO, THOSE PLANNING TO HAVE OUTDOOR FIRES
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE CONDITIONS AND LOCAL AREA BURN
RESTRICTIONS. FURTHER OUT, LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
TREND TOWARD A PATTERN SHIFT BY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
THE MOUNTAIN WEST LOW TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH, TRACKING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN
COULD HELP MITIGATE THE CURRENT FIRE THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AFTERNOON GOES-EAST IMAGERY SHOWS A REMARKABLY CLEAR SKY OVER THE UP
TODAY WITH FAIR-WEATHER CIRRUS JUST ACROSS THE STATE LINE AND OVER
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. ALOFT, THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS TEXTBOOK
OMEGA-BLOCKED, WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM IL TO
MANITOBA AND THE CLOSED LOWS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND WYOMING
RESPECTIVELY. BEING DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS, THE SURFACE HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY AND THE EASTERN HALF OF HUDSON BAY, WITH
BROAD NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE CANADIAN SHIELD LEADING TO
DRY AIR AND THE CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL. WHILE THE DRY AIR IS CONCERNING FOR FIRE WEATHER PURPOSES,
THE WINDS ARE DECREASING (ONLY A FEW STATIONS GUSTING ABOVE 15 MPH)
AND VEGETATION IS IN A GREENED-UP STATE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED MORE OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BUT WILL
BE WEAKENING, SO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS NOTED.
THE CONTINUED RELAXING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND CAMS SHOW PROMINENT LAKE BREEZES OFF OF BOTH
LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN PENETRATING WELL INLAND. RHS LOOK TO BE
DRY ONCE AGAIN WITH INLAND RHS FALLING TO THE 20S PERCENT, THOUGH
THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LIMITED.
AS THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, YET ANOTHER
HIGH FORMS OVER HUDSON BAY AS THE 500MB PATTERN EXHIBITS EXTREMELY
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MONDAY. AS SUCH, YET ANOTHER DAY OF SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES AND RHS FALLING TO THE 20S IN THE INTERIOR WILL OCCUR.
THE WIND PATTERN WILL MORE RESEMBLE TODAY THAN SUNDAY AS THE WINDS
WILL BE MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AND THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 20 MPH
IN THE INTERIOR WEST, WHICH COULD NECESSITATE ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER
SPS.
BY TUESDAY, THE LREF MEAN 500MB CHART SUGGESTS THAT THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL FINALLY BEGIN SHIFTING AS THE EASTERN CLOSED LOW SHIFTS
OFF THE NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR COAST WHILE THE WESTERN LOW SHIFTS
NORTH TO MONTANA. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY, AND WHILE THERE IS SPREAD IN THE DETAILS, THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC SUITE AGREES THAT THE WESTERN LOW BECOMES A TROUGH
THAT TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGHOUT THE
PM HOURS OF THURSDAY TO FRIDAY PM. THIS WILL GIVE US OUR NEXT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, THOUGH GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY POOR
AT DETERMINING THE BREAKUP OF A BLOCKY PATTERN, SO CONFIDENCE IS
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A BROAD WINDOW OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. NBM
HIGHS SETTLE INTO THE 60S AND 70S INSTEAD OF 70S AND 80S FOR THE
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. LREF MEAN SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 250
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOONS FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL GIVE AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR WEST, THOUGH
IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE IS ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE
CHANCES FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR THOSE
CONCERNED WITH FIRE WEATHER AS CHANCES OF 0.1"+ OF PRECIP BY THE END
OF THURSDAY RANGES FROM AROUND 35% IN THE EAST TO AROUND 70% IN THE
WEST WITH WIDESPREAD 50-70% CHANCES OF OVER A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN
BY MIDDAY NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. A LAKE BREEZE WILL PUSH THROUGH SAW NEAR THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD, BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OTHERWISE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT LEAVES HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WHERE VIRTUALLY ALL
OF THE LAKE WILL BE IN MILD CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS SUB-20 KT.
THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING, WHERE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACCELERATES DOWN THE WESTERN ARM OF THE LAKE
TO 20-25 KT, BRIEFLY DRIVING 3-4 FT WAVES. AS THE PATTERN BREAKS
UP IN THE MIDWEEK AND PROGRESSES, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LATE NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH MODEL SPREAD BY THAT POINT DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS. CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KT IS AROUND 10-20%
FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...GS
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...GS
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