527
FXUS63 KMQT 230524
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TUESDAY
BEING THE WARMEST AND ALMOST NORMAL.
- TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE WEST.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE ARRIVE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, LEADING TO RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS RULE THE DAY TODAY AND TOMORROW. CURRENT
RAP13 ANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE UP SITTING UNDER
WEAK RIDGING WITH LITTLE WIND. THANKS TO PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW, THE
THE WIND PICKS UP SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING OUT OF THE NORTH BEFORE
SETTLING BACK TO CALM FOR TOMORROW. AT THE WFO OFFICE IN NEGAUNEE,
YESTERDAY MARKED THE EIGHTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING LOW WILL BRING TEMPS ON
TUESDAY UP TO NEARLY NORMAL.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A WEAK, 1014MB LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTERLY FROM
NORTHERN MN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, DEEPENING SLIGHTLY TO
1012 MB AND REACHING GREEN BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CAMS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REACH WESTERN END OF CWA BY
03Z ON WEDNESDAY, OVERSPREADING THE UP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RRFS SHOWS A SEVERAL-HOUR WINDOW BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCAPE >1000 J/KG, ALONG WITH MODERATE SHEAR. THE CWA IS
CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED IN SPC'S 'GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS' CATEGORY FOR
DAY 3, THOUGH IF THESE CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE REALIZED, A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. AT THE HIGH END, NBM SHOWS
AREAS IN THE WESTERN UP WITH 85% PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING >0.5" OF
RAINFALL FOR A 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING THURSDAY AT 2AM. AT THE LOW
END, LESS THAN 20% FOR THE SAME FIELD AND TIMEFRAME IS INDICATED FOR
THE EASTERN UP. THUS, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURING IN THE WEST.
NONZERO POPS TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COOL. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CWA TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY STRONGLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US BY SUNDAY, THOUGH DIFFERENCES EXIST IN ONSET
TIMING AND DURATION. PER WPC, ANALYSIS OF CLUSTERING SOLUTIONS OF
500 MB HEIGHTS SHOWS UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY (DAYS 6-7)
TIMEFRAME WITH HOW QUICKLY RIDGE-TROUGH COUPLET SHIFTS EAST. NBM
HIGH TEMPERATURES ECHO THIS UNCERTAINTY: INTERDECILE SPREAD FOR
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA, RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW 70S AND LOW 90S. THAT SAID, THE
EPS INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS GULF MOISTURE NORTH DURING
THIS TIME (THINK 1.75" - 2"), RAISING POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RISK AND
ACTIVE WEATHER..
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER, WILL INTRODUCE A PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
AT IWD LATE IN TAF PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LOW TRAVERSING THE UPPER MIDWEST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
LIGHT, GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH WINDS AND GUSTS <10KT PREVAIL
ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND BAY OF GREEN BAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THE EASTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY
EXPERIENCE NW'LY GUSTS TO 20 KT.
A WEAK LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS ON
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SHIFT SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING; WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR GO EASTERLY. AS THE CENTER
OF THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE UP OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS ON
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY VEER SUDDENLY TO WESTERLY, AND THOSE ON LAKE
SUPERIOR VEER TO NORTHERLY. WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY SEE GUSTS TO 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING, ALL WINDS SHIFT
TO NORTHERLY.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE SUPERIOR MAY BUILD TO 3FT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN <2FT ON
LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY.
AS THE REGION COMES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY, WINDS GO CALM
(<10KTS) UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. WAVES ARE FORECASTED TO BE <1FT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RE
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...RE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page