183
FXUS63 KMQT 231709
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
109 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE WEST HALF.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS
MORNING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING
INTO THE AREA PRECEDES A WEAK CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE CLIPPER APPROACHES,
EXPECT TO SEE CLOUD COVER INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY,
WITH RAIN SHOWERS STARTING UP IN THE FAR WEST POTENTIALLY JUST
BEFORE SUNSET. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR TWO THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL U.P. LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING PRECEDING THE
ARRIVAL OF THE CLIPPER AS WELL THANKS TO DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING
CU CREATION. HOWEVER, THINKING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL RIGHT
NOW FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING ARE AROUND 10 TO 20%
AS NOT MUCH FORCING IS EVIDENT; THINKING IF ANYTHING HAPPENS, IT
WILL NEED SOME HELP FROM THE LAKE BREEZE(S) FROM LAKE SUPERIOR, LAKE
MICHIGAN, OR BOTH TO GET GOING (WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BOTH LAKE BREEZES MOVING INLAND TODAY). WHILE
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
TONIGHT, DUE TO THE LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES
TO BE UNDER 25%. EXPECT THE FRONTAL FORCING FROM THE INCOMING
CLIPPER TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO THE WEST HALF TONIGHT, BEFORE THE
LOW PASSES BY THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND SPREADS THE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE REST OF THE YOOP. WHILE WE LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER-CAPE AIR
ENTER INTO THE AREA (MAINLY THE WEST HALF NEAR WISCONSIN); WHILE
CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE LIGHT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILE, A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN
DIURNAL CAPE IS HIGHEST. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
POTENTIALLY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE LOW EXITING TOWARDS THE ST.
LAWRENCE SEAWAY, EXPECT THE CHANCES TO DWINDLE WITH TIME AS THE
DISTANCE BETWEEN THE LOW AND OUR AREA INCREASES. OVERALL RAINFALL-
WISE, SOME SPOTS IN THE WEST COULD SEE OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID
BETWEEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, AREAS IN THE EASTERN HALF ARE
PROJECTED TO RECEIVE NOTABLY LESS RAINFALL, MAINLY BETWEEN A TENTH
TO HALF INCH FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE
REFS PROBABILITIES FOR RECEIVING OVER HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL; THE
RUNNING 24-HOUR PROBABILITY IS BETWEEN 25-90% OVER THE WEST HALF
(EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW), WHEREAS THE EAST HALF RANGES FROM
0 TO 40% (HIGHEST WEST/IN THE CENTRAL).
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK AS
ANTECEDENT COOL AIR FROM CANADA REMAINS OVERHEAD, EVEN AS THE
CLIPPER PASSES BY. THEREFORE, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE LIMITED TO THE 60S
TO MID-70S TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED
TODAY AND FRIDAY. IT WON'T BE UNTIL AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND THAT THE ANTECEDENT COOLER AIR IS
FORCED OUT AND REPLACED BY WARM, MOIST GULF AIR. AS THIS OCCURS,
EXPECT THE TRANSITION FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS TRANSITION INTO THE 80S
TO POTENTIALLY EVEN LOWER 90S TO ROUND OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WITH A STOUT, VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW LIFTING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WE
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE INTO OUR
AREA VIA SHORTWAVES ROTATING INTO THE REGION, THE FIRST OF WHICH
COULD ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT AND CAPE WITHIN THE GULF AIRMASS, WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE OUT ON EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO SEE IF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE A PROBLEM FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE AMID HIGH PRESSURE, WITH SCT
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CMX/SAW WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO VFR WAS LEFT
PREVAILING, BUT A PROB30 WAS INCLUDED FOR SAW FROM 15-18Z WED FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT IWD WHERE SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE PREVALENT, AND A PROB30 WAS INCLUDED FOR IFR CIGS/MVFR
VSBYS FROM 12-16Z. AN ISOLATED TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT IWD FROM 06-
18Z AND AT CMX/SAW FROM 12-18Z, BUT PROBABILITY IS < 30% SO A
MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, AS A
CLIPPER LOW SKIRTS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT NE
WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE DURING
THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAK CLIPPER LOW PASSING BY THE AREA, THERE
COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE
SEAWAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO SLACKEN TO BELOW 20 KNOTS, REMAINING
THAT WAY UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES CHANGES VIA A VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW LIFTING FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL CANADA; NE'RLY GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS
COULD BE SEEN OVER THE WESTERN ARM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...TAP
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