749
FXUS63 KMQT 231750
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GREATEST COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE WEST HALF.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AS OF EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO RESULT IN SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
UP TODAY. IT'S ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY, BUT SEASONABLY COOL
CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYER IN THE LOCAL WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IS FORCING A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO WESTERN MN, WHILE STRATIFORM
RAIN EXTENDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. CAM CONSENSUS IS THAT THE MN STORMS WILL WEAKEN WITH
EASTWARD EXTEND AS THEY LOSE INSTABILITY AND ENCOUNTER A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS. HOWEVER, MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE WITH
TIME TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE WORKS EAST AND THE UP BECOMES
POSITIONED IN THE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF A SEASONABLY STRONG 300 MB
JET. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS (MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING UP TO 500 J/KG IN THE WEST)
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE
CENTRAL UP.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, THE MIDLEVEL LOW OPENS UP AS IT SHIFTS A
BIT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. RESULTING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY, AGAIN WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST BUT ALSO SPREADING INTO
THE EAST. THERE EXISTS A WINDOW FOR MODEST SURFACE DESTABILIZATION
IN THE WEST BY THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF
INSOLATION/WARMING IS UNCLEAR. PER THE 12Z HREF, NONZERO PROBABILITY
OF > 1000 J/KG SBCAPE IS CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE WI BORDER AND
TOPS OUT AT AROUND 40%, SO THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO MODEST AT 20-25 KT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST DUE TO POTENTIAL REPEATED ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING CELLS, AND PER THE HREF LPMM, CAN'T
RULE OUT LOCALLY UP TO 2" AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, PWATS REMAIN MODEST AT
JUST OVER AN INCH, AND OVERALL THE FLOOD THREAT IS LOW.
THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER.
THIS APPEARS TO BE A DECENT PATTERN FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN AT LEAST THE MORNING (POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE
EAST) WITH MOISTURE NOT SCOURING OUT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MID-60S TO LOW
70S BOTH WED/THU.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN A LONG-AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN RESPONSE TO AN ANOMALOUS MIDLEVEL LOW LIFTING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
TREND AMONG THE ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN FOR A LESS PROGRESSIVE EJECTION
OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE TROUGH AND A STOUTER RIDGE, SO ACCORDINGLY,
CHANCES ARE INCREASING THAT THE ENTIRE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.
IT'S BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND BOUTS OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND
MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EVOLVES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE AMID HIGH PRESSURE, WITH SCT
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CMX/SAW WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO VFR WAS LEFT
PREVAILING, BUT A PROB30 WAS INCLUDED FOR SAW FROM 15-18Z WED FOR
MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT IWD WHERE SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE PREVALENT, AND A PROB30 WAS INCLUDED FOR IFR CIGS/MVFR
VSBYS FROM 12-16Z. AN ISOLATED TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT IWD FROM 06-
18Z AND AT CMX/SAW FROM 12-18Z, BUT PROBABILITY IS < 30% SO A
MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
LIGHT WINDS PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE. AN
APPROACHING LOW WILL RESULT IN A MODEST INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE, AND NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE
WEST HALF, GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMPSON
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON
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