923
FXUS63 KMQT 251739
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
139 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN MOSTLY ENDS THIS MORNING, BUT SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN NEAR GREEN BAY AND LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, BUT BEGIN TO CLIMB UP EACH DAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WITH DENSE FOG BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER MARQUETTE/NEGAUNEE
AND IRONWOOD THIS MORNING, DECIDED TO HOIST UP AN SPS FOR THE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS UNTIL 830AM EDT. WITH THE SUN CONTINUING TO
RISE, EXPECT THE FOG BANK TO DISSIPATE BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHILE THE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AWAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, SOME DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (WITH THE OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE POPPING UP) ARE BEING SEEN ACROSS THE AREA VIA
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY. WITH THE LOW RESPONSIBLE
CONTINUING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY
TODAY, EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO BE DONE BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, SOME LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
ARE REPORTING PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WHILE MOST OF THE U.P. APPEARS TO JUST BE SEEING LOW-LEVEL STRATUS,
A COUPLE OF SPOTS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF MILE OR
LESS. NEVERTHELESS, BECAUSE THE PATCHY FOG IS NOT REALLY BEING SEEN
ALL THAT MUCH ACROSS THE AREA, THERE IS CURRENTLY NO PLAN TO ISSUE
AN SPS OR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR IT THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL AND STORMS YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO LEAVE
THE AREA TODAY, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO BEGIN
MOVING INTO THE U.P. BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS (ENDING CHANCES OF THE
FOG THREAT BY THEN).
WHILE THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION THE REST OF THE WEEK, CAMS AND MODEL SKEW-TS SHOW
SOME TALL, VERY SKINNY SBCAPE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN/GREEN BAY SHORELINE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WINDS
LIGHTENING UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STARTS MOVING
IN, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND
FORCING FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN/GREEN BAY LAKE BREEZE THAT SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM NEAR THE LAKESHORE. GIVEN THE LACK
OF WIND SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED;
HOWEVER, SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE SEEN IN THE CONVECTION NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN/GREEN BAY, NOT TO MENTION A NON-ZERO (BUT VERY LOW)
CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL DUE TO CORE/UPDRAFT
COLLAPSE DUE TO THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF TODAY, THE REST OF THIS WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND STAYS SETTLED UNTIL
AROUND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, EXPECT THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY (HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S/LOWS IN THE 40S) TO GIVE WAY TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PATTERN SHIFT
OCCURS. AS A LOW BARRELS INTO THE PACNW LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATE THIS
WEEKEND, EXPECT THIS LOW TO PUSH THE COOLER CANADIAN AIR OUT OF OUR
NECK-OF-THE-WOODS AND INSTEAD SET US UP WITH GULF AIR VIA SW/SSW
FLOW. WITH THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW EVENTUALLY JUST SPINNING OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT
SHORTWAVE LOWS TO ROTATE UP FROM COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH THE EURO ENSEMBLE SHOWING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPROACHING THE MAX OF MODELED CLIMATOLOGY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY OR
MORE COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN, PARTICULARLY IN
THE WEST WHERE THE NBM IS ALREADY HINTING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 100 ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, PROVIDED THAT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE REACHES THE SFC THOSE DAYS. WITH THE GULF AIR ON TAP,
EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK, MAKING THE
OUTDOORS AND ANY SPOT THAT ISN'T AIR CONDITIONED ACUTELY
UNCOMFORTABLE. THEREFORE, TAKE PLENTY OF WATER BREAKS AND AVOID
STRENUOUS LABOR DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY NEXT WEEK, AS
HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE COULD BECOME GENUINE THREATS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT SAW AND CMX INTO THIS EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. MVFR CIGS AT IWD SHOULD BECOME VFR AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL BE. WILL KEEP
VIS IFR AT THIS TIME BUT DENSE FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT (20% CHANCE
FOR VSBY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE). ANY FOG SHOULD MIX OUT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS CONTINUE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
CANADA. HOWEVER, STARTING ON SUNDAY, A LOW LIFTS FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND CENTRAL CONUS, EVENTUALLY JUST
SPINNING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THIS OCCURS, THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BECOMES SET UP UNDER GULF AIR
AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. THUS BY SUNDAY,
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE E TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE INTO THE LAKE LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE WINDS DO LOOK TO VEER TOWARDS THE S
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS
ACROSS THE LAKE (HIGHEST OVER THE EAST HALF), WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...TAP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page