185
FXUS63 KMQT 252319
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
719 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UP.
- A WARMING TREND KICKS OFF LATE WEEKEND, BRINGING UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS IS LEADING TO
A POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS TO VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE UP FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRYER MIDLEVEL AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA,
WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING ONSHORE AND EVEN WELL INLAND OF SUPERIOR
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN UP. HOWEVER, AGITATED CUMULUS AND
SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND INTERIOR-
WESTERN UP BETRAY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AWAY FROM SUPERIOR,
AND INDEED RAP SHOWS AROUND 1000J/KG OF SBCAPE THERE WITH UP TO
500J/KG ELSEWHERE IN THE UP. TO THE EAST, NEARER TO OUR EXITING
SYSTEM AND WITH THE AID OF SOME LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS, SPOTTY
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO CONTINUES. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL UP CONTINUE TO SHOW TALL, SKINNY CAPE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHEAR IS LACKING. THUS, SOME NON-SEVERE
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A QUICK, HEAVIER
DOWNPOUR. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE DUE TO CORE COLLAPSE IN OUR
SHEAR-STARVED ENVIRONMENT, AND SOME SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION (NOTE A -20C LEVEL OF JUST ~20KFT AT THIS MORNING'S
SOUNDING OUT OF MPX).
OUTSIDE OF TODAY, THE REST OF THIS WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND STAYS SETTLED UNTIL
AROUND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, EXPECT THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY (HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S/LOWS IN THE 40S) TO
GIVE WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS. AS A LOW BARRELS INTO THE PACNW LATE THIS WEEK
BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES LATE
THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT THIS LOW TO PUSH THE COOLER CANADIAN AIR OUT OF
OUR NECK-OF-THE-WOODS AND INSTEAD SET US UP WITH GULF AIR VIA SW/SSW
FLOW. WITH THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW EVENTUALLY JUST SPINNING OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT
SHORTWAVE LOWS TO ROTATE UP FROM COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPROACHING THE MAX OF MODELED CLIMATOLOGY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT A HEAT ADVISORY OR
MORE COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN, PARTICULARLY IN
THE WEST WHERE THE NBM IS ALREADY HINTING AT HIGH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 100 ON MONDAY. WE COULD SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, PROVIDED THAT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE REACHES THE SFC THOSE DAYS. WITH THE GULF AIR ON TAP,
EXPECT MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK, MAKING THE
OUTDOORS AND ANY SPOT THAT ISN'T AIR CONDITIONED ACUTELY
UNCOMFORTABLE. THEREFORE, TAKE PLENTY OF WATER BREAKS AND AVOID
STRENUOUS LABOR DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY NEXT WEEK, AS
HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE COULD BECOME GENUINE THREATS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BELOW 10
KT AND CLEAR SKIES. ONCE AGAIN, UNCERTAINTY AROUND FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW
DENSE THE FOG WILL BE, WITH SOME HI RES SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING 30-50%
CHANCES OF AT LEAST MVFR FOG AT ALL SITES, WHILE OTHER CLIMATOLOGY-
CALIBRATED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 20% OR LESS CHANCES OF FOG FORMATION.
THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL REFLECT NO FOG FORMATION, BUT SOME
CONSIDERATION MAY BE GIVEN NEXT TAF ISSUANCE IF THE NEXT ROUND OF HI-
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES OR IMPROVES THE CHANCES OF FOG FORMATION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. HOWEVER, STARTING ON
SUNDAY, A LOW LIFTS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
CENTRAL CONUS, EVENTUALLY JUST SPINNING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BECOMES SET UP UNDER GULF AIR AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW. THUS BY SUNDAY, EXPECT TO SEE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE E TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE INTO THE
LAKE LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE WINDS DO
LOOK TO VEER TOWARDS THE S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE (HIGHEST OVER THE EAST
HALF), WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY MOVING
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...LC/TAP
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