127
FXUS63 KMQT 261724
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE INTERIOR CENTRAL/WEST U.P. THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
TO VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
EXPECT FAIRLY CALM AND QUIET WEATHER TODAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS, SAVE FOR SOME FOG BEING SEEN OVER THE EASTERN
U.P. EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ROLLS
THROUGH AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE INLAND
AREAS TO CREATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ONCE THE EVENING
HOURS COME, EXPECT THE U.P. TO BECOME QUIET ONCE AGAIN AS THE SKIES
CLEAR OUT.
TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY GIVING WAY TO HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WARMING TREND IS DUE TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT
VIA A PACNW LOW MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SET US
UP WITH GULF AIR, BRINGING ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OVERHEAD. THUS, WITH THE NBM HIGHLIGHTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 IN SOME SPOTS IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SOME HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS (LIKE A HEAT
ADVISORY) MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE GIVEN THE STRESS THE
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER MAY CAUSE. IN ADDITION, WITH SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO ROLL INTO THE REGION FROM COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS NEXT WEEK, WE COULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA; WITH THE EUROPEAN EFI HIGHLIGHTING
CAPE AND SHEAR (MOSTLY CAPE THOUGH) CLOSE TO THE MAX OF MODELED
CLIMATOLOGY, AND WITH SOME AREAS OF THE U.P. APPROACHING A SHIFT-TO-
TAILS CLOSE TO 1, THERE IS CERTAINLY A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME
SEVERE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK (SOMEWHAT BIG 'BOOM' POTENTIAL).
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THIS IS NOT OUR TYPICAL FLOW REGIME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ON IF THIS WILL ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZE OR IF THIS WILL BE YET ANOTHER 'BUST' PREDICTION AGAIN
FOR THIS SUMMER (SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE OVER-ESTIMATED FROM MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIMES SO FAR THIS SUMMER). TEMPERATURES MAY
TAPER A FEW DEGREES AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID, EXPECT THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE
GULF CONTINUES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS (I.E. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND WINDS OF
20 KNOTS OR LESS) CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS SETTLED OVERHEAD. HOWEVER,
AS A PACNW LOW LIFTS FROM THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE CHANGE IN FLOW TO ALLOW
SHORTWAVES TO BEGIN MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT TO SEE WINDS INCREASE
FROM GENERALLY THE EAST ON SUNDAY, GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION, EXPECT THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK (THERE ARE SERIOUS DOUBTS ON WHETHER THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE, BUT AS FOR NOW THE THREAT IS AT A
NON-ZERO CHANCE GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS MOVING OVERHEAD).
GENERALLY GUSTY EAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE OVER
THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A SHORTWAVE LOW MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY POTENTIALLY CALMS THE WINDS DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN
BEHIND IT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...TAP
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