836
FXUS63 KMQT 261837
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
237 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL/WEST U.P. THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS TO
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE AREA IS ENSURING QUIET
WEATHER SO FAR, THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIPPLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES THAT HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUD COVER. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR SHOW LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF BOTH SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN, WITH
CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO POP OVER THE CENTRAL UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES. LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE STEEP SIDE, AND RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK INSTABILITY (AROUND 500J/KG OF CAPE); SO,
WILL NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS. AS TO THAT WEAK SHORTWAVE,
NOTHING MORE THAN PASSING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH OUR OTHERWISE
MOISTURE-STARVED ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES ARE PEAKING IN THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES, AND ARE FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
LAKE BREEZE. TONIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AS
WINDS REMAIN CALM AND SKIES STAY PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
SHOULD COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
MID 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S LAKESIDE WITH OUR WARMING AIRMASS.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND ONWARDS COURTESY OF
A PATTERN SHIFT THAT FEATURES A PACNW LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES, LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SET US UP WITH GULF AIR, BRINGING ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERHEAD. THUS, WITH THE NBM HIGHLIGHTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 IN SOME SPOTS IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY (WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED
20C), SOME HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS (LIKE A HEAT ADVISORY) MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE GIVEN THE STRESS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
MAY CAUSE. IN ADDITION, WITH SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO ROLL INTO THE
REGION FROM COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK, WE COULD SEE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH
THE EUROPEAN EFI HIGHLIGHTING CAPE AND, ALBEIT TO A LESSER EXTENT,
SHEAR CLOSE TO THE MAX OF MODELED CLIMATOLOGY, AND WITH SOME AREAS
OF THE U.P. APPROACHING A SHIFT-TO-TAILS CLOSE TO 1, THERE IS A NON-
ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT THIS IS NOT OUR TYPICAL FLOW REGIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ON IF THIS WILL ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE OR IF
THIS WILL BE YET ANOTHER 'BUST' PREDICTION AGAIN FOR THIS SUMMER
(SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE OVER-ESTIMATED FROM MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIMES SO FAR THIS SUMMER). TEMPERATURES MAY TAPER A FEW
DEGREES AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID, EXPECT THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF
CONTINUES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PASSING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 5 KFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS (I.E. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND WINDS OF
20 KNOTS OR LESS) CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS SETTLED OVERHEAD. HOWEVER,
AS A PACNW LOW LIFTS FROM THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE CHANGE IN FLOW TO ALLOW
SHORTWAVES TO BEGIN MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT TO SEE WINDS INCREASE
FROM GENERALLY THE EAST ON SUNDAY, GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION, EXPECT THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK (THERE ARE SERIOUS DOUBTS ON WHETHER THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE, BUT AS FOR NOW THE THREAT IS AT A
NON-ZERO CHANCE GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS MOVING OVERHEAD).
GENERALLY GUSTY EAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE OVER
THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A SHORTWAVE LOW MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY POTENTIALLY CALMS THE WINDS DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN
BEHIND IT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...LC/TAP
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...LC/TAP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page