828
FXUS63 KMQT 270739
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
339 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS TO
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH UPPER MICHIGAN STILL
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND MID
LEVELS PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. SO FAR, TEMPERATURES ARE COMING
IN SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH GROUND-BASED OBS ACROSS THE
AREA CURRENTLY REPORTING UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH SOME OUTLYING LOW
TO MID 40S (INTERIOR) AND UPPER 50S (LAKESHORES). WITH LOWERING DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS, THE MAIN IMPACT THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE AREAS
OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN PLACES. IRONWOOD IS ALREADY CURRENTLY
REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE, SO USE CAUTION IF
DRIVING THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY, THE WARMING TREND WILL INTENSIFY
AS HIGHS JUMP BACK INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE UP ALONG WITH
SOME MID 80S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND ONWARDS COURTESY OF
A PATTERN SHIFT THAT FEATURES A PACNW LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES, LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL SET US UP WITH GULF AIR, BRINGING ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVERHEAD. THUS, WITH THE NBM HIGHLIGHTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 IN SOME SPOTS IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL
MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY (WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY EXCEED
20C), SOME HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS (LIKE A HEAT ADVISORY) MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE GIVEN THE STRESS THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
MAY CAUSE. IN ADDITION, WITH SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO ROLL INTO THE
REGION FROM COLORADO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK, WE COULD SEE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH
THE EUROPEAN EFI HIGHLIGHTING CAPE AND, ALBEIT TO A LESSER EXTENT,
SHEAR CLOSE TO THE MAX OF MODELED CLIMATOLOGY, AND WITH SOME AREAS
OF THE U.P. APPROACHING A SHIFT-TO-TAILS CLOSE TO 1, THERE IS A NON-
ZERO CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THAT THIS IS NOT OUR TYPICAL FLOW REGIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT DOUBTS ON IF THIS WILL ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE OR IF
THIS WILL BE YET ANOTHER 'BUST' PREDICTION AGAIN FOR THIS SUMMER
(SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE OVER-ESTIMATED FROM MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIMES SO FAR THIS SUMMER). TEMPERATURES MAY TAPER A FEW
DEGREES AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING
SAID, EXPECT THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF
CONTINUES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PASSING HIGH
LEVEL (FL200+) CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
<10KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN, FOG CHANCES ARE LOW (20-
30%) AT CMX AND SAW, BUT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SHOULD PATCHY
FG FORM, IT COULD BE DENSE (50/50 CHANCE THAT IF FOG FORMS, VIS
WOULD BE SUB-1SM).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS (I.E. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND WINDS OF
20 KNOTS OR LESS) CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS SETTLED OVERHEAD. HOWEVER,
AS A PACNW LOW LIFTS FROM THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT THE CHANGE IN FLOW TO ALLOW
SHORTWAVES TO BEGIN MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT TO SEE WINDS INCREASE
FROM GENERALLY THE EAST ON SUNDAY, GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION, EXPECT THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK (THERE ARE SERIOUS DOUBTS ON WHETHER THIS SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE, BUT AS FOR NOW THE THREAT IS AT A
NON-ZERO CHANCE GIVEN THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS MOVING OVERHEAD).
GENERALLY GUSTY EAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE OVER
THE LAKE EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL A SHORTWAVE LOW MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY POTENTIALLY CALMS THE WINDS DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN
BEHIND IT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP/TDUD
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...LC/TAP
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