082
FXUS63 KMQT 281724
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
124 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS LEADING TO A POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS TO
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL (5% CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS). THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
UPPER MICHIGAN STILL REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, CURRENT GOES WATER IMAGERY AND SURFACE
ANALYSIS UPSTREAM SHOW A MORE ACTIVE SCENARIO OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS OF AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.
MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
KANSAS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AT THIS TIME WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT
NORTHWARD TODAY, ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR WITH IT. BY LATE
EVENING/TONIGHT, THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL ON TRACK TO DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. THEREFORE, SPC HAS ALMOST THE ENTIRE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UP UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAIN THREATS CONTINUING TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WITH THIS WAA, LOOK FOR TODAY'S HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE START OF A SURGE IN DEW POINTS.
CURRENTLY, GROUND BASED OBS ACROSS THE AREA ARE REPORTING WIDESPREAD
50S WITH SOME OUTLYING LOW 60S ALONG THE LAKESHORES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WAS
BRINGING PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE UP WITH SFC TEMPERATURE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE 70S. IT WAS COOLER ALONG THE SHORELINE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE BREEZES HAD DEVELOPED AND
DROPPED TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S. GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AREAS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
WAS MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS AND RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND, LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SLOWLY PUSHING NORTH
AND EAST INTO CANADA. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST, BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 850MB
TEMPS WARM UP TO 22-24C WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE UP. HUMIDITY ALSO BEGINS TO
INCREASE STARTING MONDAY WITH GULF MOISTURE SURGING NORTH, BRINGING
DEWPOINTS TO NEAR OR EXCEEDING 70F AT TIMES. HEAT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY
NEXT WEEK AS LOWS REMAIN WARM (60S TO LOW 70S) AND DAYTIME HIGHS
APPROACH OR BREAK THE 90F MARK, COMBINING WITH THE HUMID AIRMASS TO
BRING HEAT INDICES INTO THE 90-100F RANGE. ENS 850MB TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THOUGH RETURN INTERVALS ARE IN
THE 10-30 YR RANGE. THUS THE HEAT EVENT LOOKS IMPACTFUL BUT NOT
EXTREME FOR THE UP. NBM BIAS CORR COULD BE OVERDOING TEMPERATURES AS
IT HAS WITH PREVIOUS WARMER STRETCHES OVER THE LAST MONTH. DID KNOCK
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE NBM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED NEXT WEEK AND THOSE WHO WILL
BE EXPOSED TO THE HEAT FOR PROLONGED PERIODS AND THOSE WHO ARE
SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT SHOULD HAVE A PLAN TO STAY COOL AND HYDRATED.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION INCREASES AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE INCREASING TO 2000-3000
J/KG SUNDAY NIGHT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40+ KT, PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
PROVIDES LIFT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE UP IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT, AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA.
HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE
UP, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERE LARGELY WI. FOR CMX/SAW AND
UNTIL AT LEAST 00Z FOR IWD.LL REMAIN CAPPED AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT MAY BE NEEDED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. ECMWF CAPE EFI IS
HIGH ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHIFT-OF-TAILS OF 1 OVER
THE GREAT LAKES TUE AND WED. VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER WITH
COMBINED CAPE/SHEAR BUT STILL NOTABLE. OVERALL, SHOULD
CONVECTION DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD IT COULD BE STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN DETAILS.
SHOULD MSC ACTIVITY OCCUR, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND LINGERING
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROCEEDING
CONVECTION AND HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THIS TAF PERIOD UNTIL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST CAMS HAVE DELAYED ONSET TIME BY A FEW HOURS, SO TAF REFLECTS
LATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM SEGMENTS THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. TEMPO AND
PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED TO INDICATE SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION
AND LESS CONFIDENCE, RESPECTIVELY. DEEP MOIST AND WARM LAYER
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PRECIP RATES, WHICH MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CEILINGS TO AT LEAST MVFR. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY AT KIWD WHICH MAY SEE GUSTS NEAR 30KTS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN
CANADA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S, AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM THE PAC NW TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INCREASING
WINDS. EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30KT CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT GENERALLY 20KT OR LESS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (5% CHANCE).
THEREAFTER PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW BUT THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO
CHANCED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIME THROUGH THE WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...NL
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