430
FXUS63 KMQT 211100
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
700 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARRIVE TODAY. GALES ARE EXPECTED
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG AND EAST OF THE KEWEENAW THIS MORNING
INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DANGEROUS SWIM
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR BEACHES.
- QUIETER WEATHER MOVES OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS
WEEK, SAVE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A WEAK THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
BEHIND THE LOW TODAY, EXPECT A LOT LESS 'INTERESTING' WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS THE INGREDIENTS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUE
TO RETREAT SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID, WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY ACROSS THE U.P., EXPECT
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA BY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE KEWEENAW AND EAST ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH;
A ROGUE GUST OR TWO UP TO 45 MPH OR SO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT (UP TO A 30% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST 00Z HREF). BECAUSE
OF THE GUSTY WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SHORELINE. THEREFORE, A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BEACHES OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER
COUNTIES TODAY.
WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOW OVER, DUE TO SOME SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE STILL HANGING OVER US IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS (AS CAN BE
SEEN ON 850 AND 700MB MOISTURE CONTENT AND TRANSFER PLOTS), DELTA-TS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR GETTING TO AROUND 8-10 C, AND STRONG WINDS OVER
THE LAKE CREATING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FLUX (AS WELL AS HELP FROM
UPSLOPE LIFT), SOME LAKE ENHANCED-LIKE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (AND A
WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO) ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
PASSING THROUGH. HOWEVER, ONCE THE ADDITIONAL SYSTEM MOISTURE IS
LOST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT THE RAIN CHANCES TO DROP DOWN TO
AROUND 25%-ISH OR LESS BY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS AROUND A
20% CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EAST LATE THIS
EVENING, EXPECT THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS TO BE DONE OVER US BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BESIDES THE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY, EXPECT THE REST OF THIS WORK
WEEK TO GENERALLY BE CALMER, WITH HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKING
TO BE BELOW NORMAL (MID 60S TO MAYBE LOWER 70S BY THIS MORNING
TODAY, AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY). IN ADDITION, WITH
RAINFALL HAVING OCCURRED OVER THE WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
THE BOUNDARY WATERS OF MINNESOTA, AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
DROPPING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE MIDWEST, WILDFIRE
SMOKE IS SUSPECTED TO FINALLY NOT IMPACT THE AIR QUALITY! HOWEVER,
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS AND PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, EXPECT THE
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN CLIMBING BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL (THINK HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S). AS THIS OCCURS, TROUGHING
SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS US, WITH A SHORTWAVE LOW
POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
US BY THIS WEEKEND. BEHIND THIS LOW, UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW
LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT MODERATED OVER US INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
GUSTY WINDS PICK UP FROM THE NNW TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH POTENTIALLY BRINGS -SHRA TO THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, LOWER-END MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHEN THE SKIES
START TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE WE COULD SEE A DIP INTO
IFR AT SAW FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING, DON'T THINK THE CIGS
WILL DROP LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANYTHING MORE THAN A PROB30. VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DOMINATE TONIGHT AS WINDS TAPER OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE COMING IN FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE WEST HALF AND GALES UP TO 40 KNOTS
OVER THE EAST HALF LATER THIS MORNING ALONG AND BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. GALES LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE
EAST HALF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PARENT LOW CONTINUES EAST
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL
HELP THE WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO
THE MIDWEST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN TO 20
KNOTS OR LESS BY NO LATER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE WINDS LOOK
TO GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT, WE COULD SEE SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE FLATTENS OUT AND HEADS EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK; STRENGTHENING TROUGHING MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE LOW
APPROACHES FOR THIS WEEKEND, EXPECT THE WINDS TO BEGIN PICKING UP
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY GETTING UP TO 30
KNOTS OR EVEN LOW-END GALES TO 35 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING (UP TO A
30% CHANCE FOR LOW-END GALES ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM). IN
ADDITION, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME MORE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY (UP TO
AROUND A 50% CHANCE NOW ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NBM).
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ005-006.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244>251-
265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TAP
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