061
FXUS63 KMQT 220629
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
229 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT
ARE RESULTING IN DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ON THE BEACHES
EAST OF MARQUETTE COUNTY TODAY. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALGER COUNTY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TODAY.
- GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK,
THOUGH THE UP MAY BE GRAZED BY SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.
- SOMEWHAT NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
COOL AND ALMOST EARLY FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING SEEN ACROSS
THE U.P. THIS MORNING AS OBSERVING STATIONS ARE ALREADY REPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-40S. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WE COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS
BOTTOM-OUT AND DIP INTO THE UPPER TO MAYBE EVEN MID 30S! OTHERWISE,
OUTSIDE OF THE INTERIOR WEST, EXPECT THE REST OF THE U.P. TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 40S (MAYBE THE LOWER 50S OVER THE KEWEENAW).
CONTINUING INTO TODAY AND THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, EXPECT
GENERALLY CALM WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING MOVING THROUGH TODAY FLATTENS OUT AND EVENTUALLY LEAVES
TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. BEHIND THE
RIDGING MOVING THROUGH, WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THUS, EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND FROM AROUND TO JUST-BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY TO ABOVE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THIS WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE OF A LESS THAN 10% OF RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS SKIRTING THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO FINALLY RETURN ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. WITH 1 TO 3 KJ/KG
OF MUCAPE POTENTIALLY AVAILABLE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 TO
40 KTS, SOME SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE SEEN ON SATURDAY WITH THE COLD
FRONT'S PASSAGE. WITH ANOTHER FRONT/SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY MOVING
THROUGH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AND ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL ENERGY REMAINING HIGH, ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FINALLY LOOK TO END AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO.
ONE FINAL NOTE WORTH MENTIONING: GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT, HIGH WAVES ARE STILL CREATING
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR BEACHES EAST
OF MARQUETTE COUNTY THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
WAVES AND RIP CURRENT RISK WILL DECREASE, DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
(AROUND 5 PM EDT) OVER ALGER COUNTY AND LUCE COUNTY UNTIL SUNSET
THIS EVENING. THEREFORE A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALGER COUNTY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TODAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE 6Z TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
INCREASE AT CMX AND SAW TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT
CMX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS
THE SCATTERED DECK FROM TODAY CLEARS OUT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, BEFORE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PEAKS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE.
HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND HEAD
EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK,
EXPECT THE WINDS TONIGHT TO DROP DOWN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
HOWEVER, WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE ON
THURSDAY, EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TO RETURN TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE ON
FRIDAY, EXPECT WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE; SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST (ARRIVING ON SATURDAY
MORNING), WINDS INTENSIFY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAKE
TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO 20 KNOTS OR
LESS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON; WHILE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME DUE TO AN INVERSION ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER, A FEW GALE
FORCE GUSTS UP TO LOW-END GALE (I.E. 34 KNOTS) CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
(UP TO A 15% CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST LREF). IN ADDITION, WITH
SOME POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK WITH AS WELL AS STRONG BULK SHEAR
WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE, SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAKE (MAINLY THE WEST HALF). WHILE
A WARM FRONT/SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIALLY BEING SEVERE (MOST LIKELY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE), THE WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 20
KNOTS OR LESS AT THIS TIME; THE LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...77
MARINE...TAP
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