026
FXUS63 KMQT 221750
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
150 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR ALGER COUNTY UNTIL 5 PM
EDT TODAY DUE TO DANGEROUS SWIM CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER WINDS AND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, ENDING THE THREAT.
- GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN U.P. ON THURSDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S TO MID
80S, NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID-LEVELS OVER THE U.P. AS A SHORTWAVE WAS
PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO. THIS WAS HELPING TO KEEP THE AREA
PRECIPITATION FREE. DAYTIME HEATING WAS RESULTING IN SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. OVER THE EAST AND
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER, LIMITING
INSTABILITY AND KEEPING THE SKIES CLOUD FREE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND WINDS REMAINED BREEZY
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
OVERALL THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. THIS WILL KEEP A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
JET OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE RIDGE. ENSEMBLES SHOW THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK AND DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTH OUT OF
ONTARIO, BRINGING LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MIDWEEK.
TONIGHT THE U.P. WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST AND A DEEP LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL HELP TURN
WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY, BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. THUS
EXPECT LOWS TO BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, MAINLY UPPER 50S TO MID
60S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, FAIRLY
CLOSE TO AVERAGE. SOME GUIDANCE IS HOLDING ON TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND RESULTANT DAYTIME INSTABILITY WHICH COULD TRIGGER A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE EAST. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT POPS FROM THE
NBM THAT ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER YET WITH TEMPERATURES BREAKING THE 80
DEGREE MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 80S IN THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY BUT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND WESTERN U.P. AS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EAST AS THEY LOOSE SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE
THREAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE (HIGHER OR LOWER) AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S TO MID 80S,
WARMEST WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT NW TO N'RLY WINDS TODAY, BECOMING W
TO SW'RLY BY TONIGHT. GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT CMX.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY NORTH THROUGH QUEBEC EXPECT WINDS TO TURN
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AT 15-25KT, STRONGEST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
LAKE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN SHIFT
NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
30KT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. NBM IS SHOWING A 25-50% CHANCE FOR GALES OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SEEMS HIGH GIVEN THE STRONG STABILITY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE COLDER WATERS. THE ENS (EURO) IS NOT INDICATING ANY CHANCE
FOR GALES. THE NBM MEAN IS ALSO ABOVE GALE SO CAPPED WINDS AT 32KT
AT THIS TIME SINCE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER
AIR IS PULLED INTO THE AREA, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THE COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE LAKE. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT, LESS THAN 15KT, ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...NL
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