395
FXUS63 KMQT 231727
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES WITH A COLD FRONT
ON SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT
PROBABILITY IS LOW.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING FLATTENS AND HEADS EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE ZONAL (AND THE U.P. BECOMING PLACED
BEHIND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH), EXPECT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE
REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THUS, EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY TO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THIS
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE PLEASANT AND DRIER CONDITIONS WE'VE
EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY ARE PROJECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MORE HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS BY THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE, TODAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE THE
BETTER DAYS TO ENJOY THE OUTDOORS AND GET ANY YARDWORK DONE WHEN
COMPARED TO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OUR NEXT REAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COME AROUND SATURDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM THE ARROWHEAD/NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
INTO THE REGION. CURRENTLY, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOESN'T LOOK
TOO IMPRESSIVE AS THE WESTERN U.P. SHOULD BE SEEING THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHEN DIURNAL
CAPE IS LOWEST; BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.P. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL
HAVE LOST LLJ SUPPORT (NOT TO MENTION THAT BULK SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE
PROFILE WILL DECREASE WITH TIME). NEVERTHELESS, CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DOES LOOK FAIRLY ROBUST, PARTICULARLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS; THIS BOUNDARY COULD EASILY MECHANICALLY FORCE PARCELS THROUGH
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAP INTO THE FREE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY TALL, SKINNY CAPE ALOFT,
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A COUPLE THOUSAND J/KG AVAILABLE TO GET
CONVECTION GOING NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE,
THERE REMAINS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS WITH THE
COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY VIA AN INCOMING CLIPPER
SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO
ABOVE 20C AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER'S ARRIVAL, THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE JUICED AND PRIMED FOR CONVECTION. WHETHER WE SEE MUCH
(INCLUDING SEVERE WEATHER) WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ITS PRECEDING WARM FRONT; SHOULD THE CLIPPER TRACK
NORTH OR SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WE MAY AVOID MUCH OF THE CONVECTION AND
SEE NO SEVERE WEATHER (SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE WARM FRONT MOVING IN
ON SUNDAY); WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THIS SHORTWAVE
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THAT IT COULD HAVE OVER OUR AREA.
MOVING INTO THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO
BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW. WHILE THIS
COULD SET US UP FOR SOME COOLER/NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER FOR NEXT TUESDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS, WE COULD SEE MORE CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OR
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING KEEP US DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
REGARDLESS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST UNDER WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. GUSTY
SW WINDS UPWARDS OF 15 WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION
DEVELOPING TONIGHT, THUS WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN BELOW 15 KTS, THOUGH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY KEEP SW WINDS
BREEZY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
W TO SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING INCREASE UP TO 25
TO 30 KTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS AND HEADS EAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WHILE A
WEAK SHORTWAVE LOW LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS
EVENING. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW (<15%) CHANCE THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE U.S. PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SW BACK
UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT,
EXPECT S TO SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS OVER THE ENTIRE
LAKE AHEAD OF IT FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE PROGRESSIVELY FROM WEST TO EAST; SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE THE
INGREDIENTS FOR BAD WEATHER LOOK BEST. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT
THE WINDS TO DROP DOWN TO 20 KTS OR LESS.
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KTS OR LESS ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING SAID,
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN INCOMING CLIPPER LOW, WE MAY OR MAY NOT
SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY; THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS POTENTIAL
ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
(AS WELL AS THE WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST PRECEDING
IT).
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...TAP
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