218
FXUS63 KMQT 240008
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
808 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES WITH A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
LATEST GOES WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS REVEAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BETWEEN PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGHING OVER
NE CANADA AND LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THIS YIELDS A PLEASANT SUMMER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UP WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR ISLE ROYALE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. THUS EXPECT SIMILARLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS 850
MB TEMPS INCH UP TOWARDS 15C AND ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM A COUPLE MORE
DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UP SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED BY TIMING AS THE BEST FORCING WILL HAVE DEPARTED TO
THE EAST PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING, BUT WILL NONETHELESS HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS GUIDANCE DEPICTS
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 35-40 KT WITH MUCAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS SHEAR REMAINS ADEQUATE AND WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO RECOVER BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
STORMS WILL BE MORE HIT OR MISS IN NATURE GIVEN THE LACK OF OBVIOUS
FORCING MECHANISMS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE/IMPACTFUL AS THE NBM DEPICTS AROUND A 40% CHANCE TO
RECEIVE A WETTING RAIN OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH CLOSER TO A 15-20% CHANCE
NEAR THE WI BORDER AND LAKE MICHIGAN. WOULD EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AS LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
SEE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN PWATS OF 1.25-1.50" ON SATURDAY.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, BUT UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM RESULTS
IN RELATIVELY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. CHANCES ON
SUNDAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW, AS EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
SHOULD YIELD PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH IF THE OTHER
ELEMENTS COME TOGETHER. THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL THEN COME ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION. SPC IS KEEPING THE BEST SEVERE PROBS SOUTH OF THE UP FOR
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS OF THIS WRITING, BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST AS THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE ULTIMATE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN AS THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS EMBEDDED SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE 0Z TAF PERIOD UNDER
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST
AROUND 5-10 KTS TONIGHT, INCREASING ON FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED BY JULY STANDARDS
AS A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 KT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING, SUPPORTING SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
ACROSS MANY OF THE NEARSHORE ZONES. LOOK FOR A REPEAT ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW CROSSING ONTARIO BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THE ACTIVE PATTERN GOING INTO SATURDAY, ALSO BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND WAVES BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY,
BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY
BRING MORE HEADLINES BY MONDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...77
MARINE...CB
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