334
FXUS63 KMQT 240658
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
258 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMES WITH A COLD
FRONT ON SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO, BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.
- MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RETREATS EASTWARD AS A LOW OVER
NORTHERN CANADA DIGS TOWARDS FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT
OF THE LOW APPROACHES THE U.P. TODAY AND TONIGHT, EXPECT WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
GET INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEATHER
BEING NICE, TODAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY TO GET ANY OUTDOOR WORK DONE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RAIN RETURNS ON SATURDAY...
THE COLD FRONT DESCENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN U.P., MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.P. BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF
LLJ SUPPORT AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME, THE SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE
TRENDING DOWNWARD WITH THE FRONT'S PASSAGE. NEVERTHELESS, A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO COULD BE SQUEAKED OUT AS AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
ALONG THE DYING FRONT. LOOKING AT THE LATEST CAMS, THERE IS NOW A
SIGNAL THAT SOME CONVECTION MAY POP-UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL U.P.; SHOULD THIS MORE
RECENT SOLUTION COME INTO PLAY, THEN IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A
SMALL, SLIGHTLY BETTER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAINLY FOR HAIL AND
WIND. SPC HAS ACCOUNTED FOR THE POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION IN THEIR
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK BY HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P. FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND (FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS).
BESIDES THE SEVERE CHANCES (OR LACK THEREOF) FOR SATURDAY, EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAUSED BY THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE AND THE
POTENTIAL CONVECTION BEHIND IT TO NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE; THE
LATEST REFS ONLY A 10 TO 30% CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNT (A
QUARTER INCH OR GREATER) FOR THE CENTRAL AND EAST BETWEEN 7 PM EDT
TODAY AND 7 PM EDT SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID, THE CHANCE IS A LITTLE
BETTER OVER THE EASTERN U.P., RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 75%
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION.
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS (25% OR LESS CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT, CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN COME SUNDAY AS A WEAK
CLIPPER IMPULSE SKIRTS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES.
WHILE WE CAN CERTAINLY EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS COME SUNDAY (DEWPOINTS MAY GET TO AROUND 70F), THE
PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE IMPULSE HASN'T BEEN HAMMERED OUT AMONG
THE DIFFERING MODEL SUITES YET GIVEN HOW WEAK IT'S PREDICTED TO BE.
SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH WISCONSIN INSTEAD OF THE U.P. (OR
EVEN ALONG THE WISCONSIN/U.P. BORDER), THEN SUNDAY MAY ONLY HAVE
SOME LAKE BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION IF ANYTHING AT ALL. THAT BEING
SAID, IF THE LAKE BREEZE OR SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS ABLE TO FORCE
ANYTHING UP, THERE WILL BE A SOME THICK SFC-BASED CAPE TO WORK WITH
BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL AS ABUNDANT SHEAR WITHIN
THE TROPOSPHERE. THEREFORE, SEVERE CHANCES ON SUNDAY REMAIN LOW AT
THIS TIME AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER IMPULSE.
A SECOND AND STRONGER CLIPPER LOW DIGS DOWN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR/THE
U.P. ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GREATER
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLIPPER ON MONDAY; THE LATEST NBM HAS 24-
HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN ONE QUARTER INCH FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AT 40 TO 50% ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER PENINSULA.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER, MONDAY COULD SEE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER, PROVIDED THAT THE LOW GOES THROUGH THE
U.P. OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE ARE IMPACTED BY THE WARM
SECTOR; THERE COULD BE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND
MUCAPE OF AROUND 1 TO 2 KJ/KG. THAT BEING SAID, THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NEXT TO ZERO IF THE CLIPPER MISSES US TO THE
SOUTH. SO OVERALL, WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER
COME MONDAY (AND CHANCES MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER),
UNCERTAINTY ON IT REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD
ON THE CLIPPER'S TRACK.
AS WE GET BEHIND THE CLIPPER AND MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, TRAVELING
EASTWARD AND WEAKENING WITH TIME AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COULD BRING US A POSITIVELY-
TILTED SHORTWAVE LOW OR TWO FROM CANADA DURING THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF
NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, AFTER A QUICK COOLDOWN TOWARDS NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE CLIPPER, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
PROGRESSIVELY RISE ONCE AGAIN THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS GULF AIR ADVECTS BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VFR PERSISTS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE 6Z TAF PERIOD UNDER
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINTAIN
AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD
ARE LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING WEAKEN TO BELOW 20
KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE SOUTH OF ISLE ROYALE AS A WEAK IMPULSE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO FLEE TOWARDS NORTHERN QUEBEC.
NEVERTHELESS, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING TO 20 TO POTENTIALLY EVEN 30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE LAKE; WHILE CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED, THE LATEST REFS DOES
SHOW UP TO A 15% CHANCE FOR LOW-END GALES ACROSS THE OPEN EASTERN
AND WESTERN LAKE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE TONIGHT, EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME,
SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE LATE THIS
EVENING, EVEN AS THE LLJ SUPPORT AND FRONTAL FORCING IS LOST WITH
TIME; THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS, SHOULD THERE BE ANY, ARE LOOKING
TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT WINDS TO
DISSIPATE TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, EVEN AS A FEW POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES AND IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH OR BY THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS A LOW-END (25% OR LESS)
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, SOMEWHAT BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOOK TO COME ON MONDAY AS A CLIPPER LOW POTENTIALLY MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE LAKE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, THERE
IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER COME SUNDAY AND AN EVER-SO-
SLIGHTLY-HIGHER NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR MONDAY AS WELL. BEHIND THE
POTENTIAL CLIPPER, EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS TO KEEP THINGS A LITTLE QUIETER AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TAP
AVIATION...77
MARINE...TAP
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