540
FXUS63 KMQT 241949
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
349 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR
TWO BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UP.
- MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE
ZONAL TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS THE PERSISTENT WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE IS FLATTENED OUT BY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND PRODUCING PLENTIFUL
LIGHTNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. IN THE MEANTIME, PLEASANT
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE UP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S AS OF MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT, DRAGGING A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE UP AND BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STILL DO NOT EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
BE SEVERE GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO GIVEN 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 35-40 KT
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE BETTER, ALBEIT HIGHLY CONDITIONAL, CHANCE
FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO COME BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR MASS QUICKLY RECOVERS AND ALLOWS MUCAPE
VALUES TO BUILD TO 1500-2500 J/KG WHILE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
CONTINUES TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KT. SPC HAS EXPANDED IT'S MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UP FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL CAMS TO TRY TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS OVER MAINLY
THE SOUTHCENTRAL UP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STILL, THERE ARE A FEW
LIMITING FACTORS AS THE BEST FORCING WILL HAVE ALREADY DEPARTED TO
THE EAST AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF
CAPPING BETWEEN 850-700 MB. OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW
AS A RESULT (5% FOR LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS), BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY CELLS THAT CAN MANAGE TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY STILL
DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS PROBS FOR A QUARTER INCH OR MORE
TOP OUT AT AROUND 20% PER THE HREF AND 40% PER NBM.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OFFER ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER PAIR OF DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE GREAT
LAKES, BUT THE 12Z GUIDANCE UNFORTUNATELY DOES NOT OFFER MUCH MORE
CLARITY THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES. SUNDAY COULD AGAIN FEATURE A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES NEAR THE WI BORDER WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES, PRODUCING AMPLE
INSTABILITY WHILE SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. THE LIMITING FACTOR MAY ONCE AGAIN PROVE TO BE FORCING
AS THE FIRST IMPULSE LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK AND QUESTIONS REMAIN
REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE UP ON SUNDAY, WITH A SMALL
SLIVER OF SLIGHT RISK TOUCHING THE FAR WESTERN UP. MONDAY'S SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER, BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN OVER TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AND SPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION FOR
TRACK WHICH WOULD KEEP THE LARGER SEVERE THREAT CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH OVER PARTS OF WI AND LOWER MI.
LOOKING FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE
RETURN OF A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE REAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS WILL FAVOR TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, SLOWLY INCREASING WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BEYOND MONDAY FOR
NOW, BUT CAN EXPECT EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES TO BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15KT RANGE. AFTER 06Z, A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY
THUNDERSTORMS (30% CHANCE) TO ALL TERMINALS. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
LOWER CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TOMORROW
MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS, THE FRONT WILL BRING SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. IWD AND CMX WILL RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND
17Z ON SATURDAY, WHILE MVFR CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND AT SAW
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN
APPROACHING LOW/COLD FRONT AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT ONGOING SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR MANY OF THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL SEE A SLIGHT
LULL BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THEN LOOK FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS FINALLY TREND LIGHTER ON
SUNDAY, GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 20 KT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK EVEN AS A COUPLE MORE DISTURBANCES TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THESE WILL STILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN EXPECT CALMER CONDITIONS INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CB
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